pondo1000

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

This is why I always follow the farmer's almanac.  60% of the time it works every time.  

Hah, yeah. There is no one out there who has 70% success rate. No way.

Just now, Hoosier said:

There are some people who I would say are better than a coin flip, but I haven't seen anybody nail it year after year.  The good ones are more like 70% success rate.

70%? Who? I’ll pay more attention to them! DS did well w/ his winter forecast this year.

27 minutes ago, buckeye said:

YES.   Nice mild dry October and November then the hammer comes down about the 3rd week in December and we get winter, (with a few warm ups here and there to keep things interesting and the atmosphere primed),  until mid Feb.   Yup, 6-8 weeks of memorable winter.    It's all I'm asking....   Where do I submit my order?

 

Are we asking for too much?! LOL

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Also they can shelve the Indian Ocean Dipole that was the new hot term back in Fall and was a factor in the bullish winter forecasts for the OV.    I agree with you on analogs....they are a joke, I'm not sure why so many mets use them.   Chaos factor alone pretty much guarantees that seasonal analog forecasts will fail.   

This year the AO and the EPO ruled.   A relentless positive AO and EPO are the kiss of death...period.   EPO probably having more weight than the AO.  It seemed everytime the EPO went negative we went cold.

How anyone pays Bastard’s group anything for their analog based predictions I’ll never know.

For next Fall,  here is what I want to see or not see:

NO frickin warm pool of water off Alaska. When it’s there in the Fall, it goes away just in time for winter (at least last 2 yrs it has).

Give me a mild Halloween! Last couple of years it’s been cold (even had flurries this year).

No crazy early cold/snow for November. Give me a seasonal Thanksgiving & maybe I nice step down to colder air as we progress through December. 

None of this is scientific whatsoever. I don’t care. I just want to start off differently next year. Tired if this BS! LOL

Just now, buckeye said:

Shout out to JB and the gang at WxBell!   Nice work!

Time to put the analog theory to bed like the SAI. 

1 hour ago, hoosierwx said:

From PAH

Evansville and Paducah will finish the 2019-2020 winter season (Dec-Feb) with no measurable snow. First time on record for Evansville this has occurred. Tied least snowy winter for Paducah, last set in 1991-1992.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

That is just unreal 

1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

Ok, took longer than 20 seconds but back down to 1-3. That is still too high but way better than saying 3-5!

Now down to “up to an inch” LMAO! Dumb

20 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

This Wx Channel app cracks me up!! Such a POS. Problem is people take as gospel. My forecast when I looked just now. Give it 20 seconds & it’ll change!

Ok, took longer than 20 seconds but back down to 1-3. That is still too high but way better than saying 3-5!

This Wx Channel app cracks me up!! Such a POS. Problem is people take as gospel. My forecast when I looked just now. Give it 20 seconds & it’ll change!

2 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Went from dab to possibly 3-5.

It’s crazy. Who knows though really? Not the models that’s for sure!

11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

The lucky ones who end up in the 10 mile wide death band on the nw side will probably have 1-3" as it shears out.   That's probably best case scenario.   

Feb 25th - 28th, (mark it down) ....not sure what area of the sub...but talking BIG dog  

25th-28th u say? I won’t hold my breath! 

Flat out effin pouring snowballs right now!!!!

That didn’t last. Taint mixing in now. All well. Fun while it lasted!

2 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I definitely didn't love more than an inch of snow for Columbus or Dayton, so of course you guys are snowing.  Probably another hour or two before the mixing line starts shooting north, so maybe another inch or so along I-70? I'm assuming it's accumulating pretty well.

I’m in southern tip of Delaware County so we have about an inch right now. Thx OHWeather!

OHWeather lurking? Would love to hear his input. SWS just posted says snow for next few hours before changing to rain. 

17 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Sweet. Maybe we’ll get lucky for once!! Down to 33 here

Starting to stick to driveway & side streets. Snowing nicely still

7 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Snowing here in Howard near Mt Vernon. Temp has dropped from 36 to 32. Latest HRRR went a little further south again. I'm either in the sweet spot or the biggest disappointment spot lol

Sweet. Maybe we’ll get lucky for once!! Down to 33 here

Coming down at a decent clip & starting to stick to grass & cars. 

1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

Mix has commenced here

Just snow now. Not sticking to anything obviously 

Temp dropped to 34 as well

Mix has commenced here

5 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Three successive runs of the HRRR have shown a steady migration south of the rain/snow line during the evening period.

Nice! It seems temps have stopped climbing so if we can get into that heavier precip for a while & it can drag some of that cold air down, we may be in biz.

3 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Aren't the areas with the heaviest snow often near the cutoff ?

There is saying I believe that says something like if you want the heavy snow, you have to smell the rain.

14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I f***ing knew it...   we knew this was coming.    Just in time for March when we finally look to Spring and want to put this garbage winter behind us.   

Seems to never fail. Hopefully it’s wrong.

Just now, dilly84 said:

Not really. 4? 18z, 0, 6, 12

That’s too many!!!! LOL

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

well, looks like euro (WB) came in with 2-5 across Franklin county, topping out with a 6" axis from just north of Dayton to CLE.   It also looks to get a bit sleety here too at times.

The usual caveat, if we do get a further south event, it's probably weaker with less snow.  Still, a 2-4 incher would be the big dog of the season

Shit, we’d take that & run these days! Whattawinter

5 inches IMBY? Will seem like a foot!!!

Too many model runs between now and then so it won’t happen.

I called 911 this morning because I didn’t know what that white shiz was on my grass!