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pondo1000

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    Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, OHweather said:

    The very strong positive East Asian Mountain Torque (the very strong high pressure over eastern Asia) which is causing our strong Pacific jet stream and flood of mild air, but is also contributing to the developing strat warming event, is hinted to begin weakening in the the 7-10 day:

     

    ecmwf-ens_mslpa_global_fh0-240.thumb.gif.8422b1bd5f22130aeb5aff11a29cdde3.gif

     

    This causes the trough to begin retrograding across the northern Pacific as the Pacific jet begins to pull back a bit. As a result, both the GEFS and EPS begin raising heights in the 10-15 day range on the West Coast of the US and Canada:

    imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c622606883_GEFS5005-15.thumb.png.981dcc572d68d73bc20b3a4621916299.png

    1277310806_EPS5005-15.thumb.png.0277163fd37961ce2d5979cf5b992aa8.png

    With an active sub-tropical jet and developing split flow over the western U.S., along with a persistent, west-based -NAO, this would begin increasing the risk for winter storms across the eastern and central U.S. around or just after January 10th. It would not immediately be a very cold pattern, but it could be a snowy one for some areas. 

    The EPS continues to retrograde the trough into northeast Asia in the 10-15 day range while the Pacific jet continues pulling back. I'm not sure this lasts long, but could give a window for ridging into Alaska after mid-month. With a split flow over the western US and continued -NAO, a window of ridging over Alaska could both introduce colder air, but also lead to a quite active pattern for the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes into the Northeast beginning around or just after the middle of January. 

    14-km_EPS_Global_Globe_200_hPa_Wind_(1).gif.de6b65be41887373a5f8da892c5f0858.gif

     

    This is still a long way's out, but signs point to a better Pacific pattern soon. Given the -NAO in place slowing down any storms over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, all we need is a somewhat cooperative Pacific to have some fun. 

    Always appreciate your knowledge & insight in LAMENS terms. Thank you!!!

    • Like 2

    “Let’s Talk Winter!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

    Definitely overperformed further west with places in Madison County getting 2-3" when few models had more than an inch at best.  Looks like 3-5" across Columbus. 

    Will probably go down as the snowiest Christmas Eve in Columbus ever, which is kind of sad if you think about it.  

    The biggest December 24th snowfall ever before today was 2.7" in 1980.  An inch or more has fallen on the date only 4 times since 1884, not including today, and not once in the 40 years since 1980.  

    Wow

    “Let’s Talk Winter!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    10 hours ago, Gino27 said:

    There's some nice things to like about it, mostly the very very cold air it has to work with. I worry it'll be too fast and a bit too warm. Hopefully we can get the trough to go negative a bit earlier like models had, and might be trending to.

    Nice rainer again xmas eve!!!

    “Let’s Talk Winter!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Steve said:

    Really didn’t want to bring it up yet.... but next Thursday through Christmas Day definitely has my attention!! Cold front passage plus a storm riding it... would be  nice..

    Trending west with the storm b/c up to this point been too far east no?

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