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pondo1000

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    “Let’s Talk Winter!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

    Probabilities are dropping for higher totals, too.  This is looking more and more like a special for I-75 and points west.  Maybe I was way too early with the total calls.  

    I don’t know. I think NAM is playing catch-up. Heaviest may end up NW of C-bus but I still think high end totals possible.

    “Let’s Talk Winter!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

    Sub 6" line has crept into Franklin County on the latest NAM.  It's kind of on its own, but we'll see.

    It appears to have been an outlier at 12z so it adjusted at 18z at least. It had less than 5” all the way into DE County.

    “Let’s Talk Winter!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

    So what's everyone's call?

    Instead of giving a range, I'll just put out exact amounts and see how close I am...  

    Columbus: 8.5"

    Dayton: 10.5"

    Cincinnati: 9.5"

    Toledo: 8"

    Cleveland: 11" including some lake enhancement.  

    Max total somewhere in the state would be in the neighborhood of 15", I think, probably around the northern Miami Valley.  I might be too low with a few of these, but I'm definitely incorporating climo.  Biggest bust potential is Columbus being too high if the storm ends up further NW and Toledo and Cincy being too low.

    Those numbers look pretty good. Can’t really say I disagree w/ any of them.

    “Let’s Talk Winter!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

    The north trend with this first one should be concerning for anyone hoping for mostly snow from the 2nd.  It's not been subtle, and if it continues to the last minute, I could see the I-71 corridor getting screwed with lower totals.  Still looks good at this point, but that NW trend has always been a killer and why climo doesn't support big snow (double digits) through Central Ohio.  ILN may be lowballing it compared to models, but they have a reason to be cautious.  CLE is definitely too low in NW Ohio. It's not even a question.  

    12z NAM agrees

    “Let’s Talk Winter!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 minute ago, buckeye said:

    I decided to go into lurking-only mode back in early spring.   Just needed to separate myself from here for awhile.   Didn't like who I became being sucked into a thread and a topic that in my opinion has no place here.  This is where we come to share our illogical and unique passion for weather.  It's the only place we can do it.   That's ALL this place should ever be.   That's my opinion and the last I will say about it:)

    So on a lighter note, I did plan to start posting around Xmas but then we actually got a snowstorm on Xmas eve/day and then more snow, and now we sit with a snow cover and a potential decent storm coming in on top.  I told pondo and dilly that since I stopped posting we were having the best winter in years and I was afraid I might jinx it.     So let me apologize in advance to my Ohio brethren if this turns into a 1-3" turd now that I'm back.:devilsmiley:  As far as the later week threat, that's always been tenuous, so I ain't taking the blame if that washes us out.

    Thx 4 posting Buck! Here’s to a good one coming up!!!

    February 14-16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

    Half sarcasm, half realistic I guess. Being a weenie has gotten me burned so many times lol. I can't lie I'm getting really excited for this setup just as I was for the last storm. We've sure had some putters out of good setup before, but I'm even seeing some '08 similarities (minus the deform blizzard part).

    We are all weenies and all been burned and all been bummed. It’s why we are even on this stupid board! LOL

    • Like 2

    February 14-16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

    Looks too good to be true given the way these had evolved over the past 5 years. There's always going to be a catch that shows up in the short range (dry air, mixing, shunt in track etc...)

    You win the prize for most pessimistic! LOL Understandable though! 

    “Let’s Talk Winter!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 minute ago, dilly84 said:

    HRRR is further north for tonight.. not sure which model to buy.

    Looking at radar, the 1st wave is definitely staying south, but more is supposed to develop overnight. There was some new returns showing up north of St. Louis so hopefully that continues. 

    Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

    The once promising train of baroclinic snows has moved south and trek into the east coast. Weak waves in midwest slowly blossom into 4-8 events for the east coast. Damn ocean moisture source. Hopefully we can run into a big storm a week or so from now as maybe the pattern changes.

    It’s the heliosphere 

    • Like 1

    Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, OHweather said:

    The pattern coming up is going to feature plenty of cold / Arctic air over North America to tap, along with a continued tendency for blocking over the Atlantic. 

    14-km_EPS_Global_Globe_500_hPa_Height_Anom_(1).gif.708c963f1c23494fb7b28727d57c4ff3.gif

    A Rossby wave making machine will be in place over the western Pacific, encouraging persistent north Pacific blocking and a cross polar flow into Canada. This is occurring while a tendency for high latitude blocking continues across the board for multiple reasons. 

    gfs_DTpres_nhem_fh-72-384_(2).thumb.gif.f80deebf3a22b6fd29577a3af992142d.gif

    This loop of the GFS helps show the continued cross polar flow into Canada, and how the retrograding -NAO helps shove the tropospheric polar vortex towards the CONUS this weekend and next week, bringing a cold snap to much of the Lower 48. With the Pacific blocking likely continuing for the forseeable future, the model shows Arctic air reloading towards the end of the run in mid-late February. 

    One of the reasons we will remain "blocky" for the forseeable future is the continued downwelling of the weakened stratospheric polar vortex into the troposphere, which encourages a -AO and blocking:

    gfs_nh-namindex_20210204.png.5251545a172b007669181ec8e922dbe6.png

     

    On top of that, there's been a recent uptick in tropical forcing across the western hemisphere, and western Pacific forcing will continue until further notice:

    2144475422_chi200_cfs.eqtr(1).thumb.png.df8a2bac7b354432faec6eb8dc6d2534.png

    This deposits momentum in the tropics and subtropics (enhances the sub-tropical jet). Because momentum is a conserved quantity, the increase in momentum in the tropics and subtropics results in a decrease in momentum in the higher-latitudes, which causes a tendency for blocking. The 12z GFS is shown as an example of this, note how the stronger sub-tropical jets over the eastern Pacific and eastern Atlantic occur beneath weaker higher-latitude flow, and how this encourages high latitude blocking:

    gfs_uv250_global_fh-72-384_(1).thumb.gif.56c98fdb93a70accba8d5a7f932625b3.gif

    The persistent western Pacific forcing will keep our Pacific blocking in place for most of February, and the Arctic air dropping into North America will encourage continued cyclogenesis near the east coast, which will help encourage Atlantic blocking as well. 

    Basically, the US will lean cold for much of February. There will be a baroclinic zone across the southern / eastern US, though the cold will seep south and east at times given the -NAO and the quality of the cold that will be available. The Arctic air may lead to near to below average precipitation for a lot of the CONUS (save for perhaps the southeast/east coast), but the pattern will stay at least somewhat active given the baroclinic zone and hints of a subtropical jet. The GEFS and EPS weekly forecasts for the next 30 days speak for themselves: 

    ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t2m_f_anom_30day-4988800.thumb.png.152f7c8fe57decbbd2f53928e18fbbc3.png

    gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-t2m_f_anom_30day-4988800.thumb.png.0b995eee8f0977f068989ff7b7cf447c.png

    While suppression and lack of moisture may be a problem at times, we are already in a rather wintry stretch that will probably last through all of February, and perhaps into early March. 

    Great post as usual. Any chance of a real clipper type pattern developing and not these Pacific Northwest impulses? 

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