000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171302
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
802 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving across the Mid-Atlantic region will result in
continued snowfall today. Afterward, cold weather will persist all
week long with intermittent snow chances.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Frontogenesis and vorticity advection are still very much present
and contributing to overall ascent on the back side of this eastward
propagating trough. As evident per 12Z KPIT sounding, much colder
air, nw flow has initiated with a saturated profile. Snowfall will
continue to accumulate, heavily at times, depending on location and
enhancement within frontogenesis. An additional 2-3 inches is
generally possible, especially north of Pittsburgh. Several more
inches are likely in the higher elevations as upslope will be
favored.
Sustained wind speed and gusts will increase in the higher terrain
of the WV and PA Alleghenies on Monday, which will likely result in
blowing snow and lowered visibility.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, coverage in snow showers will gradually taper off, though
isolated snow showers will remain with lake enhancement of lingering
vorticity advection and upslope. Light accumulation is possible
Tuesday morning in the WV ridges and Laurel Mountains.
Tuesday day will be cold and mostly cloudy, with a cloud deck
attempting to erode from the south through the day. Look for highs in
the upper 20s to low 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure propagating sewd across the Great Lakes will provide
the chance for precipitation on Monday, with likely a frontal passage
that could result in progressive precip chances of rain/snow mix.
Long range model ensembles indicate that a cold stretch is likely,
with low temperature progged in the single digits on Thursday and
Friday nights.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR with periods of low-MVFR and LIFR will persist through the morning
as a low pressure system moves northward across the Mid- Atlantic.
The most significant restrictions will occur in a deformation snow
band as it pivots across just about all area terminals, with likely
sub-1SM vis and CIGs under 1kft. With the exception of ZZV,
terminals should receive a few inches of additional snowfall
accumulation.
Cold northwest flow on the backside of the low as it departs will
result in continued MVFR CIGs with scattered lake-enhanced snow
showers. These showers will gradually taper off Monday night into
Tuesday with CIGs gradually breaking up in response to incoming dry
air.
.Outlook...
Widespread VFR conditions are likely to return mid day Tuesday under
building high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>514.
&&
$$