tamarack

Forgot this thread and posted the info below on the Ju-ply one: Afternoon AFD from GYX. Tomorrow evening might get interesting. Our place is on/near the boundary between levels 2/5 and 3/5. I can't recall ever being in a 3/5 area. Now to the increasing threat for severe weather, which again could be potentially significant. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) of Severe Weather is in place for northern NH and the western ME mountains,a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for central NH and the Maine interior, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for coastal ME and approaching southern NH. A potent 500mb shortwave will cross Quebec in the afternoon and evening, with its associated cold front approaching the International Border from the northwest early Tuesday evening. Increasing forced ascent, significant height falls, and strengthening wind fields aloft will set the stage for severe thunderstorms to develop with the hot and humid air mass in place, further enhanced by an elevated mixed layer that will steepen lapse rates aloft. Today`s 12Z model suite, including CAMs, continue to show deep layer shear of 50-60 kt, MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and high values of DCAPE (800-1000 J/kg) brought on by some dry air/high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. This supports damaging wind gusts, and given the parameters, there`s certainly potential for these to be significant on the order of 75+ mph. In addition, the instability profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings depict large hail could be to the size of golf balls or even larger. There is also enough directional shear to support a tornado threat with mean 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2. These hazards are all possible within discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, but the primary hazard will become damaging winds when the dominant mode becomes more linear, although a tornado within the line(s) will remain possible. For timing: there`s strong consensus among the CAMs with multiple clusters or semi-discrete developing across southern Quebec in the late afternoon to early evening with rapid upscale growth in coverage and intensity as storms approach northern NH and northwestern ME in the 6pm to 8pm time frame. Storms are expected to quickly progress to the south the rest of the evening into the early overnight hours. However, it should be noted there are hints of isolated discrete cells developing in the 4pm to 6pm timeframe that may approach from the north. Based on CAM solutions, the threat for severe weather should diminish after 2 AM, but some development of showers and a few storms is possible overnight. This is not a yearly, typical threat of severe storms, and it becomes even more dangerous as the threat continues after dark. It is highly advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially ones that will wake you up with the threat continuing into the late evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk areas also include many popular camping and recreation areas, which make those who are outdoors extremely vulnerable to falling trees.

Afternoon AFD from GYX. Tomorrow evening might get interesting. Our place is on/near the boundary between levels 2/5 and 3/5. I can't recall ever being in a 3/5 area. Now to the increasing threat for severe weather, which again could be potentially significant. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) of Severe Weather is in place for northern NH and the western ME mountains,a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for central NH and the Maine interior, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for coastal ME and approaching southern NH. A potent 500mb shortwave will cross Quebec in the afternoon and evening, with its associated cold front approaching the International Border from the northwest early Tuesday evening. Increasing forced ascent, significant height falls, and strengthening wind fields aloft will set the stage for severe thunderstorms to develop with the hot and humid air mass in place, further enhanced by an elevated mixed layer that will steepen lapse rates aloft. Today`s 12Z model suite, including CAMs, continue to show deep layer shear of 50-60 kt, MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and high values of DCAPE (800-1000 J/kg) brought on by some dry air/high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. This supports damaging wind gusts, and given the parameters, there`s certainly potential for these to be significant on the order of 75+ mph. In addition, the instability profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings depict large hail could be to the size of golf balls or even larger. There is also enough directional shear to support a tornado threat with mean 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2. These hazards are all possible within discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, but the primary hazard will become damaging winds when the dominant mode becomes more linear, although a tornado within the line(s) will remain possible. For timing: there`s strong consensus among the CAMs with multiple clusters or semi-discrete developing across southern Quebec in the late afternoon to early evening with rapid upscale growth in coverage and intensity as storms approach northern NH and northwestern ME in the 6pm to 8pm time frame. Storms are expected to quickly progress to the south the rest of the evening into the early overnight hours. However, it should be noted there are hints of isolated discrete cells developing in the 4pm to 6pm timeframe that may approach from the north. Based on CAM solutions, the threat for severe weather should diminish after 2 AM, but some development of showers and a few storms is possible overnight. This is not a yearly, typical threat of severe storms, and it becomes even more dangerous as the threat continues after dark. It is highly advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially ones that will wake you up with the threat continuing into the late evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk areas also include many popular camping and recreation areas, which make those who are outdoors extremely vulnerable to falling trees.

Might add '38's drag race from the Outer Banks to LI, and a mid-September timing when the water temp is at/near peak.

Aroostook has seen a surprising number of tornados, considering it is far north and hilly. The densest area for wind damage (tornado and straight line) seems to be the Fish River chain of lakes, Eagle, Square, Long. In this century there have been damaging wind events - including tornados - from Oxbow to the town of Eagle Lake. Public Lands had loggers salvage 1,900 cords from 60 acres south of Eagle Lake in 2005 and 3,000 acres in 2013 from a 200+-acre blowdown north of the lake. The granddaddy event was older, 600 acres Eagle to Square Lakes flattened by straight line wind on 9/30/1986. The Bureau salvaged about 3,000 cords from 300 acres (not all were reached) and J.D. Irving salvaged at least as much on their half of the blowdown.

Another 1938 would leave some people w/o electricity for months. Connie/Diane had incredible rain, especially in SNE, but I don't recall much wind in NNJ. Floods kill and destroy but usually don't mess up the grid like wind/ice/Octobombs.

Beats my longest - 6 days from the Jan 1953 ice storm on the hills north and west from NYC. 2nd place is 101 hours from the Dec 18, 2023 gales/flood and 3rd was 90 hours in Jan 1998. We were fortunate in that last one - a single break between Brunswick Avenue and our place 400' away would've meant 2 weeks. (Our phone was out for 13 days.)

Nice. Haven't seen a good after-dark light show in years.

We lived in Gardiner from late October 1985 thru mid-May 1998. August 1988 compared to averages for our 13 Augusts had 3 levels: 1-13: 74° nearly 8° AN 14-18: 65° average 19-31: 59° 3.5° BN Modest temps compared to the real hot spots (instrument was within some pines), but impressive averages.

Memories of sweating while doing brush saw thinning north of Flagstaff Lake that summer. June had one hot spell, but the 6 weeks July 4 thru mid-August had some of the highest dews I've encountered in Maine. The 8/1-14 stretch of swamp-dews put mold all over things in our basement, only time I've seen that. IIRC, PWM had a 77° TD during that spell and a site in BGR (don't know where) reported 93° and 68% RH one afternoon, which would be a TD of about 81.

Carol and Edna each dumped a lot of rain, but they were about a month apart. The next year Connie/Diane combined for 12-22" in 8-9 days over much of SNE. Of course, the 1954 hurricanes had far more wind.

Modest TS last evening (8:30-9) plus a shower about 6 AM totaled exactly 1/2". Looks to be all there we'll get before late next week. So far this month's temp is running 2.2° warmer than our warmest July (2010) and the average continues to get warmer through late month, though only by 0.5°. Summer here has a 5-week plateau with average temp only varying by one degree. (The one-degree winter valley is less than 2 weeks.)

"Never assume malice for what is easily explained as stupidity."

That warning is in GYX' CWA. The heat criteria in Maine may be lower than for Massachusetts.

The record broken by the 1984 storm was April 7-8, 1982, the most glorious bust I've enjoyed. Late on April 6, CAR still thought OTS, forecasting 20s, windy, flurries. That blizzard left our black Chevette (a small car, but still . . .) with only a palm-size patch visible. My guesstimate in Fort Kent was 17", while the wind left the snow stake 2" lower than pre-storm, with mounds 5-6 feet tall within 20 feet on either side. March 1984 is now 2nd, behind the 33.1" from an odd stationary storm Dec 25-27, 2005, the bright spot in a down winter. In mid-February a guy from Corpus Cristi, TX called the manager of Aroostook State Park (near PQI) about sledding. The response was that it was very poor, plus a recommendation to head north, to the St. John Valley and points west.

Agree about the softening, also for folks playing the blame game if they are inconvenienced in any way. However, the bolded seems counterintuitive. at least from a practical standpoint. Those out in the wx would seem to be more affected than those sitting in their LRs poking their cellphones. Wonder if we’ll all go 10 straight days with no rain ? That arrives today; most recent precip was 0.16" on June 28. The temps running 5° AN during that period exacerbates the drying.