tamarack

I don't know if Maine has ever had a confirmed EF3 (or stronger).

Those nice echoes shrank to only sprinkles when they arrived here, a common phenomenon since late last month. However, clouds thru late morning mean the sun has a lot of work to do if we're to reach the forecast 93.

Do it. Chronic Lyme is something you don't want to acquire - it can mess up all kinds of functions and sometimes be life threatening. A woman in our church has had chronic Lyme for 5-6 years and it's still causing her lots of problems.

Farther south at Central Park, Dec 2015 average temp would've been 2.7° AN - for November. The 50.8° average was 6.2° warmer than any other NYC December since records began in 1869, a stand-alone gap that had to be many SDs ahead of the #2 mark.

That cell has been holding together quite nicely. Those 70+ dbz colors aren't very common around here. And there's another one farther NW for our evening entertainment.

Forgot this thread and posted the info below on the Ju-ply one: Afternoon AFD from GYX. Tomorrow evening might get interesting. Our place is on/near the boundary between levels 2/5 and 3/5. I can't recall ever being in a 3/5 area. Now to the increasing threat for severe weather, which again could be potentially significant. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) of Severe Weather is in place for northern NH and the western ME mountains,a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for central NH and the Maine interior, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for coastal ME and approaching southern NH. A potent 500mb shortwave will cross Quebec in the afternoon and evening, with its associated cold front approaching the International Border from the northwest early Tuesday evening. Increasing forced ascent, significant height falls, and strengthening wind fields aloft will set the stage for severe thunderstorms to develop with the hot and humid air mass in place, further enhanced by an elevated mixed layer that will steepen lapse rates aloft. Today`s 12Z model suite, including CAMs, continue to show deep layer shear of 50-60 kt, MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and high values of DCAPE (800-1000 J/kg) brought on by some dry air/high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. This supports damaging wind gusts, and given the parameters, there`s certainly potential for these to be significant on the order of 75+ mph. In addition, the instability profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings depict large hail could be to the size of golf balls or even larger. There is also enough directional shear to support a tornado threat with mean 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2. These hazards are all possible within discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, but the primary hazard will become damaging winds when the dominant mode becomes more linear, although a tornado within the line(s) will remain possible. For timing: there`s strong consensus among the CAMs with multiple clusters or semi-discrete developing across southern Quebec in the late afternoon to early evening with rapid upscale growth in coverage and intensity as storms approach northern NH and northwestern ME in the 6pm to 8pm time frame. Storms are expected to quickly progress to the south the rest of the evening into the early overnight hours. However, it should be noted there are hints of isolated discrete cells developing in the 4pm to 6pm timeframe that may approach from the north. Based on CAM solutions, the threat for severe weather should diminish after 2 AM, but some development of showers and a few storms is possible overnight. This is not a yearly, typical threat of severe storms, and it becomes even more dangerous as the threat continues after dark. It is highly advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially ones that will wake you up with the threat continuing into the late evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk areas also include many popular camping and recreation areas, which make those who are outdoors extremely vulnerable to falling trees.

Afternoon AFD from GYX. Tomorrow evening might get interesting. Our place is on/near the boundary between levels 2/5 and 3/5. I can't recall ever being in a 3/5 area. Now to the increasing threat for severe weather, which again could be potentially significant. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) of Severe Weather is in place for northern NH and the western ME mountains,a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for central NH and the Maine interior, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for coastal ME and approaching southern NH. A potent 500mb shortwave will cross Quebec in the afternoon and evening, with its associated cold front approaching the International Border from the northwest early Tuesday evening. Increasing forced ascent, significant height falls, and strengthening wind fields aloft will set the stage for severe thunderstorms to develop with the hot and humid air mass in place, further enhanced by an elevated mixed layer that will steepen lapse rates aloft. Today`s 12Z model suite, including CAMs, continue to show deep layer shear of 50-60 kt, MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and high values of DCAPE (800-1000 J/kg) brought on by some dry air/high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. This supports damaging wind gusts, and given the parameters, there`s certainly potential for these to be significant on the order of 75+ mph. In addition, the instability profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings depict large hail could be to the size of golf balls or even larger. There is also enough directional shear to support a tornado threat with mean 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2. These hazards are all possible within discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, but the primary hazard will become damaging winds when the dominant mode becomes more linear, although a tornado within the line(s) will remain possible. For timing: there`s strong consensus among the CAMs with multiple clusters or semi-discrete developing across southern Quebec in the late afternoon to early evening with rapid upscale growth in coverage and intensity as storms approach northern NH and northwestern ME in the 6pm to 8pm time frame. Storms are expected to quickly progress to the south the rest of the evening into the early overnight hours. However, it should be noted there are hints of isolated discrete cells developing in the 4pm to 6pm timeframe that may approach from the north. Based on CAM solutions, the threat for severe weather should diminish after 2 AM, but some development of showers and a few storms is possible overnight. This is not a yearly, typical threat of severe storms, and it becomes even more dangerous as the threat continues after dark. It is highly advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially ones that will wake you up with the threat continuing into the late evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk areas also include many popular camping and recreation areas, which make those who are outdoors extremely vulnerable to falling trees.

Might add '38's drag race from the Outer Banks to LI, and a mid-September timing when the water temp is at/near peak.

Aroostook has seen a surprising number of tornados, considering it is far north and hilly. The densest area for wind damage (tornado and straight line) seems to be the Fish River chain of lakes, Eagle, Square, Long. In this century there have been damaging wind events - including tornados - from Oxbow to the town of Eagle Lake. Public Lands had loggers salvage 1,900 cords from 60 acres south of Eagle Lake in 2005 and 3,000 acres in 2013 from a 200+-acre blowdown north of the lake. The granddaddy event was older, 600 acres Eagle to Square Lakes flattened by straight line wind on 9/30/1986. The Bureau salvaged about 3,000 cords from 300 acres (not all were reached) and J.D. Irving salvaged at least as much on their half of the blowdown.

Another 1938 would leave some people w/o electricity for months. Connie/Diane had incredible rain, especially in SNE, but I don't recall much wind in NNJ. Floods kill and destroy but usually don't mess up the grid like wind/ice/Octobombs.

Beats my longest - 6 days from the Jan 1953 ice storm on the hills north and west from NYC. 2nd place is 101 hours from the Dec 18, 2023 gales/flood and 3rd was 90 hours in Jan 1998. We were fortunate in that last one - a single break between Brunswick Avenue and our place 400' away would've meant 2 weeks. (Our phone was out for 13 days.)

Nice. Haven't seen a good after-dark light show in years.

We lived in Gardiner from late October 1985 thru mid-May 1998. August 1988 compared to averages for our 13 Augusts had 3 levels: 1-13: 74° nearly 8° AN 14-18: 65° average 19-31: 59° 3.5° BN Modest temps compared to the real hot spots (instrument was within some pines), but impressive averages.

Memories of sweating while doing brush saw thinning north of Flagstaff Lake that summer. June had one hot spell, but the 6 weeks July 4 thru mid-August had some of the highest dews I've encountered in Maine. The 8/1-14 stretch of swamp-dews put mold all over things in our basement, only time I've seen that. IIRC, PWM had a 77° TD during that spell and a site in BGR (don't know where) reported 93° and 68% RH one afternoon, which would be a TD of about 81.

Carol and Edna each dumped a lot of rain, but they were about a month apart. The next year Connie/Diane combined for 12-22" in 8-9 days over much of SNE. Of course, the 1954 hurricanes had far more wind.