tamarack

Lol….ya that’s only if it’s accumulating snow…flakes in the air doesn’t count. Estcourt Station Detailed Forecast Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Southwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Columbus Day Rain, mainly before 2pm. Temperature rising to near 49 by 9am, then falling to around 41 during the remainder of the day. West wind 8 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Tuesday A chance of snow between 9am and 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Tuesday Night Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 3am. Low around 32. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Wednesday A chance of showers, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Night A slight chance of rain after 3am, mixing with snow after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Friday A chance of rain, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night Rain and snow. Low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

They'll be around here, too, but we're well past peak. Some late-turning maples will still be colorful and the aspens are peaking. Clear blue this morning, low was mid-upper 30s.

We've had measurable rain on 3 of 8 days this month, which would project 137 such days per year, only 7 days less than average (average precip is 48.83)". Total precip is 0.06" - totaling 2.74" for the year. No wonder the Sandy River is in the bottom 10% and Carrabassett in the bottom 5%. The upper halves of trees here are 90% de-leafed. Lower half about halfway. Today's wind hasn't been grabbing much foliage so far.

Car batteries know that it's real, but only in the lower levels - go up 100 yards and the temp would be significantly higher. When we lived on sloping ground at 970' asl in the back settlement of Fort Kent, after calm clear overnights we'd see the smoke layer above the sawmill cone burner across the St. John and would know that it was 10°+ colder than our place at the riverside office. It's a similar "fake" when growing season transpiration brings tall TDs - in each case the extreme conditions aren't the same as the overall airmass. Temp had dropped into the upper 30s by 10 PM last night, so I expected mid-upper 20s. Maybe the wind returned, as our low was 33.

When we lived in Fort Kent, we had slushy flakes during a northeast storm on Sept 14, 1977. Places above 1,000 asl had 2"+. Five years later when we lived near that 1,000 mark in the back settlement, we had slushy flakes on August 28. Had some high 30s gusts 9-10 AM, still pretty windy. About 70% leaf drop and climbing - was a great autumn for colors while it lasted. In another topic, got a couple of deer ticks yesterday, first I've seen since June. The horrid beasts seem to disappear in late summer here.

Murphy is alive and active.

Incredible cold blast. Minus 2 at Tallahassee, 2nd coldest week at Central Park (though well behind 12/29/17-1/4/18) and the NJ snow paradox - the state's least snowy spot gets 34", biggest snowfall in NJ records.

Red oaks, also white ash, are easy to split. Therefore, when those species have V-shaped forks, they're vulnerable to ice and/or wind. Another pure blue day after the frost. Colors are past peak, ash nearly bare, oaks mostly still green.

We had 107% of average rain April-June but only 66% for July-Sept. However, we had frosts on 23-24 and 8 other September mornings in the 30s. Whatever the reason, the colors have been spectacular. Currently I'm watching sugar maple leaves raining past the window, despite nearly calm wind and 60s, so we'll soon be past peak. The morning low of 60 here is 20° AN, and yesterday's 73 was only one degree below the warmest we had last month. Clouds still look thick, so I don't think we'll get much past 70, if any at all.

First time I've seen the "S" word from GYX this season - Monday's strong CF may have some light snow at elevation during that night.

That's averaging 4.57"/month. Projected over 12 months, it's nearly 55". I'd guess that's a bit AN; 45-50 seems more likely. My average here is currently 48.6". Foggy 50 has turned to blue sky 60s.

September numbers Avg max: 65.1 -2.7 Warmest, 74 on the 10th. That's our lowest monthly Sept max; previous was 76 in multiple Septs. Avg. min: 45.3 -0.5 Coolest, 30 on the 24th Mean: 53.2 -1.6 Coolest Sept since 2019. Precip: 3.06" -0.61" Wettest day, 0.99" on the 28th. The long-duration storm on 27-29 totaled 1.75". Other than the above storm, September was an unremarkable month. No strong wind, no thunder, no real heat, no real drama. The precip deficit since the end of June had brought the Sandy River down to the lowest 5% of its records for September 26th, data since 1929, and the 1.75" barely moved the flow to the 25th percentile. That said, fall colors came about a week earlier than average and the reds are as good as it gets. Other colors, yellows and the maroon ash, are good as well.

Maybe, but even after 46 years as a forester, I can't figure out the reasons for great/average/awful colors. We had slightly AN rain in May/June then about 50% of average July thru Sept 26, and met summer was AN but nowhere near our warmest. I've read that drought limits the colors, but it's still a 'maybe' from me. Same opinion for excessive rain. Our worst color year, by a lot, was 2005. May that year was 200% of average rain with 6° BN temp, easily the coolest here. (Ask Tip about May 2005 - he has a strong opinion of that month. ) June thru September had AN temps (Sept '26 will finish about 1.5 BN) and slightly BN rain. By October 7 the color was middling (next to none of reds), 7-10 days later than average. Then 8-10 had nearly 6" rain on strong winds which brought down about 80% of the leaves. Phooey!

"Swamp maples" are almost always red maples (Acer rubrum) on a wet site. The wetness lowers fertility and keeps the roots somewhat cooler than on well drained sites, probably causing that early turning (as you guessed). The color is common for most red maples (excellent this year), though there's a variety of sorts that turns yellow (also good).

Finished this event with 1.75", fortunately about 3 times more than I expected. Month up to 3.06" (average is 3.70"), almost enough to get Sandy River over the 25th percentile. Colors here are at/near peak, with lots of red maples wonderfully bright. Birches and sugar maples approaching peak, white ash well past, about 75% leaf drop around here on that species. Red oaks: Autumn? What's that?