hazwoper

Has me at 14” and still snowing 7pm Monday

That’s fair

Why confused , Ralph. Why on earth would you follow srefs when every other models states 12+. RELAX

6.5” only will NOT happen

Too early to use them

No it’s NE of Avondale

yes, you most certainly are extreme SEPA Basically the lower portion of the 5 counties is what I consider extreme SEPA

yep, Wrightstown, PA. Just North of Newtown. Bucks County

looking at the 18Z NAM, as I have said all day, I like where I site here in extreme SEPA EDIT with the above being said, I think the NAM made some errors here and the precip shield will push back NW

That is "Heavy Snow warning" criteria. Blizzard is sustained winds of 35 mph for 3 hours or more with heavy snow A blizzard warning (SAME code: BZW) is an advisory issued by the National Weather Service of the United States which means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph / 15 m/s or greater with heavy snow is forecast for a period of 3 hours or more. https://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx#:~:text=A Winter Storm Warning is,sleet is expected to occur.&text=A Blizzard Warning is issued,for at least three hours.

yu need sustained winds of over 35 mph for an extended period for bliz warning I believe. Possible, but not likely

I think it really depends on the winds both at the surface and aloft (among other things)

I was going to post such a point. The coastals typically don't have great ratios. The WAA out front would, but we don't see much of that up here. With the coastal and the winds associated with it I would think 10:1 is likely.

the NAVGEM is a massive hit, for what its worth (which isn't much)

As I said, I like where EXTREME SEPA sits.

Agreed. I think if things change they go up from my call, not down.

we still have some time, but I think we are lookin gat a low end warning event for extreme SEPSA/SNJ at this point. The models have been all over this disjointed aspect of the coastal for some time now. I think 6-8" is a good bet right now.

you'd be wrong, sorry. Storm has occluded and is indeed sinking SE. Once occlusion occurs the center is cutoff from moisture, thus further allowing for the dry air from the NW to push in.

more like 8-10

some but not much. storm at that point has occluded and is sinking SE.

All in all a great run for SEPA for the GFS the way it has been going

The precip shield decays overnight Monday as it occludes

The best news from the NAM? The confluence we have been noting plushies north quite substantially

Primary farther north and east on 0Z. Coming north a bit