Shack

Euro, says....no. (for now)

GFS says yes, .....

Reporting from St. Louis. 34deg and ..... I'm one mile from KSUS, Spirit of St. Louis airport in Chesterfield at my daughter's house. For the first time in my life, THUNDERSLEET ! Walked the dog outside as it was very lightly sprinkling rain, could see lightning and hearing occasional thunder and then "Bam!" and the lightning shook the ground. I was startled but, almost like it shook the sleet from the clouds, the sound of "shlllllleeeeettt" hitting the ground like it had been dropped from a bomb bay stopped me in my tracks. Only lasted for about 20 seconds but, wow. Too cool. And, yes, the dog was more than ready to go back inside, looking at me like, "What the heck are you looking at and smiling ??!!"

Many thanks for the stat's that you provided in the long range thread leading up to this. It's been a great few past days to speculate and then watch it all play out. Topped out at 2.1" here.

If you want some fun later this week, just go back to the long range thread, page 40 or so, I think, and start reading the beginning comments on what has become The Brick Storm.

Glad to hear you escaped ! I have good friends from Peach County. I was around for Feb '73. Thomaston area, then. Second grade, too. Got almost two feet ! Still steady light snow but only about an inch here, thus far. Hoping that those heavier returns in Alabama make it here. (And Frank Malloy has obviously been drinking the same water as Dick Clark, Tom Cruise, etc)

I would call it moderate snow here in Lizella(Macon). Started promptly at 2:00. Cars nicely covered. Yard about 50% covered. 30/21

Good to hear. Was really curious about the Arkansas/ North Louisiana returns. I was hoping that moisture transport was more north and maybe a little stronger than modeled.

Widespread, but light, Virga Snow (I'm supposing) to our west on radar right now. I looked around and don't see any reporting stations reporting that this is making it to the ground, but this radar image wasn't progged on any of the Hi-res models for this time period, was it? Or, can someone chime in that knows if the models account for virga in their renderings.

Metal Man and GaWx still looking good.

Euro looks wetter than GFS and NAM at 81hrs to me...

"One of these things is not like the other ! "

35deg and Light to moderate sleet now. Love the sound of it hitting the super-dry leaves in the yard.

Great band that is delivering for the south metro, Tony ! 35/29 here and approximately 13 sleet pellets on the porch. (edit,..14 sleet pellets)

You must immediately desist with your questioning of the sleet due to Tony and me ! This is science, after all. (sarc)

18Z Euro. Oh, boy, I get 0.2" here in Macon !

A Burgersighting !! Oh, it's on now.

To my eye, the 18z Euro coming in much less amped than the GFS in the gulf. Looks like it might not want to merge that Great Lakes Low like the GFS if it continued past 144hrs, too. HP in Mid Atlantic is a few ticks higher as well.

Hey, Tony. Saw you lurking. (off topic for forum, but couldn't send PM) My daughter lives in St. Louis. I've been giving her updates on tomorrow's system for a week and she is now preparing for a Mega-Sleetfest. Man, that's a lot of little frozen balls that are gonna fall in her neighborhood. (cue the jokes) Almost 3" if you believe the HRRR Back on topic: Ugh. At the operationals. Anyone have a DGEX to spark joy?

12z Euro. ouch.

I-70 Special through Missouri. Totals up with this run. Cut these in half(which we usually need to)and it's still a nice one.

Interesting AFD from Riverton, Wyoming this morning(isn't that where MetalWX did his internship years ago?) A little flare in the prose to break up the monotony of talking about forecasts of 3-4 FEET of snow, I guess. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM MST Sat Dec 28 2024 Things remain quite active as we enter the last weekend of 2024. In addition, we also continue to have the contrast between West of the Divide and East of the Divide. So, as common sense would dictate, we will again divide the discussion between these regions. And I will try not to make it as long as War and Peace, maybe as long as the Count of Monte Cristo, or to those wanting something more modern, The Stand by Steven King. West of the Divide...After being largely quiet much of the evening, the next round of snow has moved into the western mountains, but most is fairly light as this time. To compare the rounds of snow, we need another analogy. Yesterday, we used Italian food. Today, we will use boxing. And, being an aging member of Gen X, the obvious choice is the most dominant of that generation, Mike Tyson. Yesterday`s snow was the jabs, just to set everything up. For around the next 36 hours or so, these will be the body blows, to wear you down. We expect one round of snow through the day today, and while there could be some decent accumulation, most rates should be on the moderate side. The areas with the warnings, mainly the Tetons and Salt and Wyoming Range have at least a 4 out of 5 chance of picking up at least 6 inches of additional snow. An interesting wrinkle is that the heaviest snow may shift further south with a greater chance of over a foot in the Salt and Wyoming Range rather than the Tetons. One difference is that there will be more wind today with the proximity of an 140 knot streak, and the area in the right front quadrant of the jet. Many of the higher elevations have a near certainty of wind gusts above 40 mph, and even some of the valley locations, especially open areas like north of the Jackson Hole airport, could have wind gusts to 30 mph to blow and drift the snow. We will continue the warnings as is for now. There could be another lull this evening, or when we are in between rounds. Then the next round begins, this one with some body blows and a couple of stronger right crosses. Snowfall rates may be higher in this situation, possibly over an inch an hour as there will be some left front quadrant jet energy over the area through the period. There is another factor though. With southwest flow increasing ahead of the cold front, temperatures will warm ahead of it. Some guidance shows 700 millibar temperatures rising anywhere from minus 4 to as warm as 0 Celsius. This could raise snow levels to anywhere from 6500 to as high as 8500 feet in southwestern Wyoming. This could lead to mixing with rain for a while in the valleys on Sunday afternoon, keeping accumulations down somewhat during this time period. Things worsen again on Sunday night through, as the strongest push of snow as the main trough axis and cold front pass through the region, mainly in northwestern Wyoming. This is the uppercut, the punch that most of Tyson`s opponents feared. As the front passes, colder air will move in and drop the snow levels back to the valley floors. With the increased forcing from the front and trough passage, along with flow switching to a more favored northwesterly direction, snowfall rates should become heavy again.Probabalistic guidance gives at least a 4 out 5 chance of 12 inches or more across the northern mountains from Sunday 12Z to Monday 12Z. Winds could get rather gusty as well with the frontal passage Sunday evening as well, bringing very difficult travel conditions. The heaviest of the snow should be over by sunrise Monday as the system moves away to the east, with improving conditions through the day. Guidance diverges after this, with some building a ridge and some keeping zonal flow and snow showers going. Given the more important concerns in the shorter term, we kept continuity for the most part to focus more on this in the future.

This is interesting. GFS now wants to close off a piece of energy in the southwest. Big, longitudinally co-located surface high incoming from Canada. Squashes it into the Gulf, but, hey still a ways out.

Making a darn good start at getting their 40". https://www.skicb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx