Baroclinic Zone

buried.

Yup. Angle looks much improved. We go boom after 84hrs.

Yeah, better stream interaction going on. s/w ejecting faster and trough coming in sharper.

Yup. Just toggled the 00z Euro 5h and it is similar.

12z RGEM goes BOOM.

Scheduled to meet a client in Hyannis Saturday AM. Sort of feel the same way.

2/13 (Nemo) was another one of them.

I know you don't take my comments personal. We do joke around a lot and share a passion for tracking, you moreso that I, which shows. I'm still waiting another full day to take a big hit seriously.

There are a lot of slower, left leaning members in the 06 GEFS.

My gut is telling me the OP Euro is too amplified and the OP GFS is not amplified enough. EPS and GEFS are in between and where my leaning on track is right now.

Wrong. See my post above. It's just snow. No need to be jealous.

Not spoiled at all here. It's just snow. I've had far too many 20"+ snowfalls over the last 20yrs to recall them all. Gotta be 10 of them.

Same with the 06z/18z runs. With all the satellite input they are just as valid.

Run of the mill blizzard here. ~24".

And keep in mind that this is a mean snowfall graphic. Those are hefty numbers at this timeframe. Can still change but higher confidence threat for sure.

Feel better after seeing overnights runs.

Ray have a therapy session with Dr Phil? my god, losing his shit over model runs left and right.

glad we logged off for the last 2 of them.

On the prowl.

Agreed. I'm not saying to toss them, but to treat them with some skepticism until you have a trend develop over multiple cycles.

Just getting caught up. I agree with Tip. The 18z GFS/GEFS were a dramatic continuity shift from their 12z run. I'd wait to see what the 00z GFS/GEFS do before altering any ideas of the storm. The 18z EURO/EPS were less drastic and lend more credence right now but that can change in 6hrs. There is nothing to really hang on this far out other than watching the runs rolls in. Gotta wait another couple days to see how things look. Confidence is still high for a storm from what I see right now. I'd still be leery of a hugger given the southern origins and how we know they play out. Having a track over or S and E of the BM isn't a bad thing for a lot of the subforum.

9 times out of 10 it does.

Nope, see above