Baroclinic Zone

To you too. I have no expectations yet for worthwhile snow until I see more promising model data.

We’re on to February

There is a thread for that but I will entertain here. The difference looked neglible from the 18z run. More like noise.

Ok my brain hurts from breaking out of my summer slumber. Hopefully the night crew can take over from here and we see some reversal in the model trends.

That it is. I guess my thought is that the PV either beats down that ridge or builds SE into that NAO region to offset the PNA ridge developing out west.

Yeah, if you just sit there and watch the progression for a bit you can see a lot of different factors at play. That building PNA ridge is actually hurting this storm potential right now as modeled.

I do see some positives in the gif I posted. While the PAC side does not look great to me on the trend, you can see the North Atlantic developing a -NAO building south which could make this storm move more easterly if that region can continue to do so.

Model trend gif on the GFS starting 00z yesterday valid for 00z on Monday, January 21st

Tough to argue for a snowy solution in SNE right now given the breadth of model solutions. As we know, plenty time to change things though. Here are some thoughts in my head. I think we need to see a slower progression of s/w across the country so we can establish the cold. The lead wave for Friday coming in stronger/further N will be an indicator of where the best baroclinity will be for the follow wave. Seeing this lead wave potentially push further north is not what we’d like to see in SNE for a more wintry outcome My last thoughts are with regards to the MJO and their influence on the PAC flow. It seems like the PV in latest model runs is being displaced a bit further N. It also looks like there has been a shift of the ridge out west offshore which is not a good location for us.

Are we living in another realm? What is it with the wishcasting? Is the lack of snow like a withdrawal from nicotine?

That just wreaks of snow. just not here.

Wrong storm James. Dial it back

I've grown to despise FB, Twitter. I deleted my FB account and I never use my Twitter account anymore.

Did I say that was?

Not cool to joke about this kind of stuff.

I'd like to see the ridging a bit further east but the look is good overall.

Keep going where? Those are the day 8,9, & 10 panels.

Nice slanted brick wall.

quite intriguing

Ok.

Correct. The storm itself is also a high confidence storm. It's not like we are dealing with phasing or other nuances in flow.

I don't thing the GFS is out to lunch though, with this specific threat.

I saw flurries! What's up!