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Baroclinic Zone

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Everything posted by Baroclinic Zone

  1. Baroclinic Zone
    Front side and back
  2. Baroclinic Zone
    12z RGEM picking up on the coastal enhancement. Model run overall an improvement from 06z run. Not as robust QPF wise as other guidance.
  3. Baroclinic Zone
    Agreed. There is a nice northeasterly fetch as storm exits. Will enhance and linger snowfall over far E MA.
  4. Baroclinic Zone
    The hi-res WRF models like Cape Ann and Scott’s area for some enhanced totals.
  5. Baroclinic Zone
    Weak psyche
  6. Baroclinic Zone
    Most models spitting out around 0.3 here around Foxborough area. Think we lose some of that to saturation, but think ratios will be pretty good with the 700mb fronto push through the area. Think 2-4” is on the table.
  7. Baroclinic Zone
    There is a clear difference in being interested in its output and taking them seriously. It has its usefulness in some aspects of storms but overall it’s a garbage model when it comes to winter storms.
  8. Baroclinic Zone
    Maybe it sucked you back in.
  9. Baroclinic Zone
    Sobering up.
  10. Baroclinic Zone
    That will be fluff
  11. Baroclinic Zone
    Correct. I’m still pretty nooby about these things still so I’ll still defer to the more experienced folks to fill in.
  12. Baroclinic Zone
    Nice to point out that s/w energy Brian. I’ve seen that hanging back and consolidating over the last 12-24hrs.
  13. Baroclinic Zone
    I was thinking that or just a clipper on a bit of HGH. Hoping we can see some more positive trends for us further east today. I fell NY over to WCT are locked in. My other feature to keep an eye on is the linger lighter stuff as the low exits east. We have an easterly fetch to the winds that may give coastal areas lingering OES fluff.
  14. Baroclinic Zone
    No argument there.
  15. Baroclinic Zone
    Biggest limiting factor I see right now is saturating the lower levels. Lot of dry air to overcome. We need storm to hold its structure together for a bit longer further east, otherwise we’re looking at virga.
  16. Baroclinic Zone
    I actually agree with you Ray. EURO QPF does look a bit underdone. Not order of magnitudes treated but I could see another .1-.2 tacked on further north and east of what’s currently modeled.
  17. Baroclinic Zone
    Looking at the 06z Euro and the more I look at it, the more excited I am for some folks. 850/700mb closed off circulations as low is coming out of the GL. If those can maintain that for several hours longer as they slam into this arctic boundary, we may see some pretty hefty totals. Will also help those further east.
  18. Baroclinic Zone
    Nice to wake up seeing overnight guidance hold and come in a bit more robust in some cases. Pretty impressing fronto being modeled as has been discussed. 06Z NAM hung over and had a dirty Bloody Mary this AM.
  19. Baroclinic Zone
    Well tickle me shivers
  20. Baroclinic Zone
    It’s been popping up on various models. Maybe some oes enhancement
  21. Baroclinic Zone
    Euro/NAM deadly duo
  22. Baroclinic Zone
    18z hir res RGEM slightly more robust for eastern folks
  23. Baroclinic Zone
    Quite remarkable how cold the lowest levels are. If we get into that fronto omega than we should do fine but otherwise it’s as you said. Virga.
  24. Baroclinic Zone
    Track yes, but I think we will see a broader expansion of snow on the NE side of the storm.
  25. Baroclinic Zone
    I’m not sold on any trend back S and W. There has been a trend for a relaxing thin the confluence to the NE and also seeing some consolidation of the s/w energy. That 18z NAM is a thumper dumper.
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