Baroclinic Zone

Bit too much of this growing up.

GFS has been quick to take that s/w and push it further north over upper Midwest while euro is a bit slower and has s/w further south.

Thanks for putting my earlier comment into a more detailed response.

GFS has not performed well. I feel it’s been too amplified.

I wonder how modeling is handling the NAO flip. How much feedback is there. Shunting storm further S.

You take that back…

All SEMATT saddling up for the 6z Euro/EPS run.

Overall trend I have seen is lowering/flattening of heights over the northeast. Vorticity itself looks to be more consolidated and has dug further south. Nice look on the overnight for interior SNE and up into CNE.

If December ain’t rockin’, don’t come a knockin’

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Thread hath been giveth.

So we’re 4-5 days out from our first winter storm of the season. Models are pretty consistent in bringing surface low off coast and traversing across the area. Prior to storm we have a cold front that pushes through proving antecedent airmass. This cold unfortunately won’t be locked in place. High pressure while initially in a pretty good spot just north of the area will be retreating allowing warmer air to intrude. Overall a pretty classic storm setup. With storm being so early in the season, areas inland and with elevation will be more favorable for staying on the snowier side while coastal areas will see perhaps an initial burst of snow but transitioning to rain as warmer air intrudes. The storm is pretty juiced up so we could see some seeing 6-10” snow out of this and those on the wet side seeing 0.5-1.0” of rain. Below are the latest 06z EPS and GEFS ensembles showing tracks and 24hr mean QPF.

I’m confident on 6-10” here.

That was never brought up in this. As you know, where I was on the polar opposite side of Taunton, my winter climate was vastly different than yours or butterfish’s. That area has a distinct marine boundary that sets up many times in storms. It’s nothing personal, just reality.

I’m about 1/8mi south of here, https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMAATTLE150

Gotta update the mug location…

Foxborough does.

This is a bit premature. No need to lock into any sensible outcomes at this point.

Thanks.

Foxborough IS a better geographical spot than Taunton. Nothing to debate.

Not much to add from what has already been said since this AM. Not to much to glean out of the runs today from a sensible wintery outcome for anyone. Only trend really there is for impacts of some kind for New England. Hope everyone had a great day today. I’m sorry I’ve been absent from the forum for a while. Just a “Perfect Storm” of life transpired and has brought me to where I am now. I’ve missed this and look forward this next endeavor.

Wow, that was a solid run for the area.

High is pressing more on 12z GFS. Should come in a hair south/colder.