Baroclinic Zone

ICON ticked a but better with trough from the 06z run.

If that southern stream is going to be stubborn to exit stage right, we'll need the northern stream to drop into the backside of all that hot mess sooner.

That Southern stream buck shot of energy is back to mucking this up. It needs to get the hell out of the way so the northern stream can amplify..

What was my post before 00z last night? I said I'd wait to see what 00z showed before starting a thread. I'm not writing this off at all. Us SEMA'ers are in a better spot for this.

Is the mean throwing any precip back into our area?

+6.7F thru the 28th. Should wrap up the month above +6F. Gotta be in the top 5 warmest months

And the 00z gfs was AWT

good luck to the gfs resolving the s/w swan diving from the arctic circle

@72 hrs the GFS is looking promising. s/w over the SW is out of the way our northern streamer is potent and digging further west and south over the Midwest. 84hr the trend continues. this should come in better then 18z

Been too busy and boring to warrant them. 00z NAM has a pretty good look at 84hr. Not a classic set up but could be enough to clip the area.

Lol. No need rib Tip. He’s not the easiest to understand with his writing style. I kid a lot but I try to lay it out as best I can when I feel it warranted. Thanks. This is by no means a lock but I’m hedging towards something closer by then what the goofus is showing.

Wife got a girls night out this weekend?

Gonna need a new February thread once we get there. This one is long.

Thanks Will. My thoughts on a “Miller B” type storm started yesterday when we started seeing the s/w over the SW digging to Tijuana and the northern stream started coming in stronger and more amplified. I’m using the Euro for my thoughts as I feel the GFS and GGEM are useless in complex phasing patterns with multiple short waves. The UKie has been pretty steadfast in a western outlier track compared to others. The last piece falling into place was the euro tendency to lose s/w into the SW. I felt that at some point we would either see the euro trend towards the GFS in keeping this s/w more progressive but the opposite has happened. It’s dug further and further S and W. These are the things I’ll be keying on in further runs as we get closer. This can still go either way but my confidence in a storm offshore of us has increased today. I do think we see the GFS latch on to the strength of the northern stream in upcoming runs and I’d watch to see if that energy in the SW trend more progressive. ramble done

I’d say it’ll likely be safe post 00z to start a thread

buckshot

Not surprised

Yeah, just thinking out loud. Get that lead shortwave out of the way as well as the SW s/w and see if this northern one can dig for oil.

Yep. Make the northern stream more dominant with some southern stream interaction

If that s/w in the SW parks itself at a Tijuana Tequila Bar, we may be looking at a more northern steam driven Miller B re-developer. The earlier it hits the bar, the better as it would promote more downstream troughing over the east.

Looks like wave spacing/interference is preventing the Euro from being a pretty sizable storm.

We need to keep an eye on how the Euro handles that s/w in the SW. It's been a past bias in the model so let's see if that is still the case.

06z EPS looks sweet from a track perspective for many.

I like that.

Holy shit. That would be 2-3’