Baroclinic Zone

GGEM showing the same improvement from the northern stream.

Just looked at the 06z GEFS and there is a clear group of the ensemble to the left of the mean. Let's see what 12z brings. We've seen baby steps since 00z on the GFS.

Yeah, GFS only dropped the missile 1/2 way (~200mi)

Maybe we can take a magic eraser to the lead shart?

Marginal improvement at 500mb. I do like what I'm seeing over the GLs. Looks like the GFS scored a BB, so next batter is up.

Told him to go shovel the driveway even though their was no snow to shovel.

May tickle closer but nothing wholesale to arouse the interior.

I was thinking of a bunker buster missile

Model #3 in the batters box.

Correct. Annoying that the lead shit is preventing this all from being a pretty big storm for many, many more.

ICON ticked a but better with trough from the 06z run.

If that southern stream is going to be stubborn to exit stage right, we'll need the northern stream to drop into the backside of all that hot mess sooner.

That Southern stream buck shot of energy is back to mucking this up. It needs to get the hell out of the way so the northern stream can amplify..

What was my post before 00z last night? I said I'd wait to see what 00z showed before starting a thread. I'm not writing this off at all. Us SEMA'ers are in a better spot for this.

Is the mean throwing any precip back into our area?

+6.7F thru the 28th. Should wrap up the month above +6F. Gotta be in the top 5 warmest months

And the 00z gfs was AWT

good luck to the gfs resolving the s/w swan diving from the arctic circle

@72 hrs the GFS is looking promising. s/w over the SW is out of the way our northern streamer is potent and digging further west and south over the Midwest. 84hr the trend continues. this should come in better then 18z

Been too busy and boring to warrant them. 00z NAM has a pretty good look at 84hr. Not a classic set up but could be enough to clip the area.

Lol. No need rib Tip. He’s not the easiest to understand with his writing style. I kid a lot but I try to lay it out as best I can when I feel it warranted. Thanks. This is by no means a lock but I’m hedging towards something closer by then what the goofus is showing.

Wife got a girls night out this weekend?

Gonna need a new February thread once we get there. This one is long.

Thanks Will. My thoughts on a “Miller B” type storm started yesterday when we started seeing the s/w over the SW digging to Tijuana and the northern stream started coming in stronger and more amplified. I’m using the Euro for my thoughts as I feel the GFS and GGEM are useless in complex phasing patterns with multiple short waves. The UKie has been pretty steadfast in a western outlier track compared to others. The last piece falling into place was the euro tendency to lose s/w into the SW. I felt that at some point we would either see the euro trend towards the GFS in keeping this s/w more progressive but the opposite has happened. It’s dug further and further S and W. These are the things I’ll be keying on in further runs as we get closer. This can still go either way but my confidence in a storm offshore of us has increased today. I do think we see the GFS latch on to the strength of the northern stream in upcoming runs and I’d watch to see if that energy in the SW trend more progressive. ramble done