Baroclinic Zone

You ain’t kidding. That is in the NAM basket.

Climo at this time of year favors a baroclinic zone closer to the coast. It’s still early in the season. I’d have rain in my forecast there as well right now. If this thing bombs out and closes off south of here then maybe they can stay all frozen.c

That would croak all of us in future panels

DGEX!

I was looking at 66h frame. It’s out to 78h now and it’s looking good.

Not seeing any noteworthy changes at 5h on 18z NAM

18z is only out to 48hr.

Nice look across SNE for tomorrow on 18z NAM 12km and 3km

I approve of the 12z suite.

Only 6” at BOX. That RPM shows 20-24”.

Still scoots of East but it made a move in the right direction IMO.

Stronger southern s/w too. We tucky tucky some

GFS is sharper on trough. It should come tucked in a bit more

That’s a sweet look

While not a classic blocking pattern, the 50/50 low that’s currently traversing over the southern tier states, is modeled to blow up over Labrador to a sub 940mb low and there is just enough rigging over Greenland. This provides confluence over the northeast, preventing our modeled storm from cutting up the st Lawrence river. I feel the gfs is still struggling with this set up to some degree and has not been as consistent as other modeling. I’d still lean on the ensembles and treat each op run as another ensemble member. I believe 00z tonight we should have the shortwave fully sampled but will rely on others for confirmation. We shall see a narrowing at that point of general track. I feel pretty confident in a widespread 6”+ snowfall with potential for double that if Euro model is more accurate.

Of course.

You can toss it but it’s not an implausible solution

8mb weaker and about 75mi S of 18Zz run.

Huge hit for E PA and N NJ thus far

00z NAM still adamant about Monday storm

December 2009 has been brought up and I see similarities for here but not further south. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_2009_North_American_blizzard

Keep in mind this is the mean snow from all the EPS members. That’s a crazy mean to see this far out.

Seeing EPS probs of 12”+ that high at this lead time gives a higher level of confidence of doing so. There is something strange about doing it though since it doesn’t occur all that often.

Can’t say I ever recall seeing a 10:1 snow map that nuts for here.