Latent heat release from storms originating from the south typically will have a northward correction as date draws closer. Normally once we’re within 2-3 days.
Climo at this time of year favors a baroclinic zone closer to the coast. It’s still early in the season. I’d have rain in my forecast there as well right now. If this thing bombs out and closes off south of here then maybe they can stay all frozen.c