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Baroclinic Zone

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Everything posted by Baroclinic Zone

  1. v16 a bit more robust with precip than its predecessor. Not huge though.
  2. GFS exemplifies this to a T. Could be wrong though as well,
  3. I loathed the wind/temps Sat/Sun. Give me mid 40s all Winter over that shit.
  4. I think the RGEM has the general idea of location of banding where the NAM was further N. Still think a disjointed mess is a possibility though.
  5. No but I'm in the emotional support group.
  6. I'd believe the RGEM over the NAM in this sort of setup.
  7. That's actually a damn great model run for the weens.
  8. 12z RGEM has a nice band set up from the parent low down to the south coast. Again right along the line of best forcing.
  9. I still have caution flags flying in my head over widespread snows. I still feel that western areas will do better due to the initial forcing being better out there. It's getting shredded as it pushes east but we could be saved if we can back the flow some due to a little redevelopment S of us for eastern areas.
  10. Models are all pretty damn close at this point. We are talking about a 20-30mi difference where best banding sets up at this point.
  11. Surface temps don't look to be the issue. It's how congealed the system is or is not. Light rates over 24hrs won't accumulate much imo. You'll want to be under heavier bands to see anything appreciable out of this.
  12. That northern stripe makes sense as that's where the upper levels and best forcing are tracking.
  13. This is how I envision Ginx every time there is a snow fall.
  14. Nice to see one break right for the ASATT crew. Pulling for ya.
  15. Said that many days ago, we’d want that shortwave to be a nuke to cut into the block some.
  16. They’ve made inroads over the last 5 years.
  17. And science has said we’ve lacked a solid baroclinic zone over the US for the majority of the month. Hence the + departures over most of the US and torched over the upper plains where the majority of our cold comes from. If this changes and we see closer to normal temps over the upper plains, this should help shove that zone further south and East.
  18. 1st it was Jan 78 coming, now it’ll be Feb 1978 incoming with the huge block.
  19. Discussion of potential is one thing, saying they are coming is another. But you can parse the differences, right?
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