Baroclinic Zone
-
Posts
46,263 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Baroclinic Zone
-
Going 0-12” forecast here. -
NAM is the ideal scenario in SE MA. Thump to brief changeover than dryslot. Starts late AM and goes for about 12-16hrs.
-
AM gang. 12z NAM warmed slightly but damage is still done before changeover.
-
It’s how each vendor decides to interpret the the model output. It’s why it’s preached ad nauseam to not use them verbatim but to use them as just another tool to vet out what a model is showing.
-
I’m still convinced this front end thump is for real and it’ll be mostly snow for a lot of the forum. Models seem to be struggling a bit on the low level temps a bit and determining where that changeover occurs. The levels above there look plenty cold. 1-2C in the 925mb level are making all the difference in models right now.
-
You’re a youngin’
-
Epic 1st post.
-
The soon to be retired GFS does not look anything like the v16 or NAM
-
I’m finding the v16 a much more believable scenario with minimal warming prior to the initial thump. Even the Euro was a pretty good thump over SE areas before the taint moved in.
-
Sup gang? GFS is still a POS model for coastal storms. Loves to warm the lower levels too fast. Tossed hard into Boston Harbor.
-
It’s brutal with thermals. I’m finding v16 much more realistic compared to the Euro.
-
GFSv16 looking good.
-
This has looked more like a WCB thump for a day now.
-
I’m wishing for 36”. I expect nothing. Reality will be somewhere in between.
-
All about that backside energy. If it trends stronger, we’ll see some tuckier solutions that may drive warmer air into eastern areas and push the ml goodies further inland.
-
And where are we seeing 2” show up on modeling right now. I’m seeing 1 to 1.5” across most and it’s limited to eastern areas.
-
Widespread 18-24” would be a blockbuster.
-
I’m still trying to figure out what 8s allowing that subtle lifting out to get this further north. All I can see is some larger subtle downstream troughing that allows heights behind to lift a little more.
-
Throw up the GFS 500mb North Atlantic view on Tropical Tidbits and you can see what I am referring to, our exiting storm takes its time, meanwhile our next storm comes in like a heat sealing missile, only to hit a brick wall.
-
This storm will only appear slow because it’s slamming into the system that’s exiting us now. I don’t see this as a maturing coastal as it hits our latitude. That’ll be further SW of us in the mid Atlantic. Doesn’t mean we can’t have a sizable storm, I just don’t see a WCB combined with a CCB to produce those prolific totals.
-
Nope. Shitstreak halts this bowling ball in its tracks and the main s/w than has to undercut it while the backside energy has no where to go but carve itself underneath the main s/w, which than elongates the entire system.
-
It’s gonna be all about the initial thump here, and maybe we get some CCB love if the low redevelops as it scoots East.
