Baroclinic Zone
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Everything posted by Baroclinic Zone
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Sup gang? GFS is still a POS model for coastal storms. Loves to warm the lower levels too fast. Tossed hard into Boston Harbor. -
It’s brutal with thermals. I’m finding v16 much more realistic compared to the Euro.
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GFSv16 looking good.
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This has looked more like a WCB thump for a day now.
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I’m wishing for 36”. I expect nothing. Reality will be somewhere in between.
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All about that backside energy. If it trends stronger, we’ll see some tuckier solutions that may drive warmer air into eastern areas and push the ml goodies further inland.
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And where are we seeing 2” show up on modeling right now. I’m seeing 1 to 1.5” across most and it’s limited to eastern areas.
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Widespread 18-24” would be a blockbuster.
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I’m still trying to figure out what 8s allowing that subtle lifting out to get this further north. All I can see is some larger subtle downstream troughing that allows heights behind to lift a little more.
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Throw up the GFS 500mb North Atlantic view on Tropical Tidbits and you can see what I am referring to, our exiting storm takes its time, meanwhile our next storm comes in like a heat sealing missile, only to hit a brick wall.
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This storm will only appear slow because it’s slamming into the system that’s exiting us now. I don’t see this as a maturing coastal as it hits our latitude. That’ll be further SW of us in the mid Atlantic. Doesn’t mean we can’t have a sizable storm, I just don’t see a WCB combined with a CCB to produce those prolific totals.
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Nope. Shitstreak halts this bowling ball in its tracks and the main s/w than has to undercut it while the backside energy has no where to go but carve itself underneath the main s/w, which than elongates the entire system.
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It’s gonna be all about the initial thump here, and maybe we get some CCB love if the low redevelops as it scoots East.
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Gotta say, that’s a pretty sweet look for a lotta folks. Even at the end of the run, the interior is getting it good.
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For sure. If I want were to want it to tighten up, I’d want it to be further E.
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Elongation of the ML will be huge for eastern areas as it will help mitigate any warming. NAM is a huge hit.
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Quick Staples run to pick up a few more Crayola Crayon 64-packs.
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That's a foul for using a name for a winter storm.
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Only 54hrs till the secondary is off the VA coastline at this point. Time to place more credence in OP solutions.
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So you're going to travel to Brewster to watch the snow that's fallen?
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95% of our snow storms have temps in the 30s.
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https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=MA&rawsflag=3
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Dim sun at home.
