I'm with Tip on the left side of guidance with this storm. I feel the northern stream is gonna lift out faster allowing the southern stream to dig more and bring this closer in.
Since Kevin is confused most of the time.
Here are the 700mb temps and VV to point out what I am saying.
Thermal gradient is about 20mi offshore co-aligned with the VV.
I like seeing the height ahead less compressed. Will allow the storm to amplify. See if we can back the flow to enhance precip some rather than this being a pure WCB storm.