Baroclinic Zone
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Everything posted by Baroclinic Zone
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We're on to Sunday. Euro has weak coastal.
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Coming in on 18z Friday and still no precip into the area.
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OTS
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Inland looks good. I would stray too far from 10:1 in this area.
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Not really a huge difference when you take all the 12z models in. 20-30mi
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Euro looking good. Little warmer than 00z run at 925mb. Mix along the coast. Look best along the Pike region
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Ukie in the GGEM/RGEM camp with closed off 925mb mitigating warm air intrusion along south coast. South of Pike deal.
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Yeah, initially the thread was for Thursday, which has gone poof and maybe we get weekend threat but that still remains to be seen.
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Yeah, we ended up pretty damn close to 10:1 here. Spot on to the 1/2" QPF Euro number we were seeing.
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ICON has it as well fwiw
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NAM definitely the warmest model. GGEM would be the coldest.
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Real nice look on the GGEM.
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Lead wave on Thur/Fri on GFS is OTS but there is a follow-up wave that if we can get enough wave spacing and heights are able to respond, it may come up the coast some. Still battling the confluence to the north though so there is only so much it can come north.
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Agreed, Anywhere off the Cape/Islands looks pretty safe for advisory there.
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It's not too far off from the NAM on 925mb temps.
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RGEM closes off at 925mb, thus mitigating the warm intrusion.
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I honestly enjoy tracking storms than I do results of them.
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But the model shows it so we discuss it.
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Ray, you didn't screw up. I'd give it a B grade forecast. I felt the band was going to set up further S & E over SE MA. Certainly not from Hartford up over to Westwood. I ended up in a "relative" min compared to Norfolk County and out on Cape. Still my 2nd biggest event of the season after Dec.
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If the NAM is to believed the s/w came in a bit stronger and further north. Low level air flow out ahead is able to come from a more southerly trajectory, which warms the surface temps and lowest levels above 0C.
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Looks like a good presentation to go through. https://www.weather.gov/media/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/winter_stuff/Winter_Stuff/Forecasting_P_Type.pdf
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There is a bit of a warm tongue at 925mb there. Would suck to have a pretty good clipper for many ruined by a few degrees .
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Low level temps will definitely determine how wet a snow looks/feels. It's wont dictate ratios though. Temps aloft and how deep the SGZ are will dictate ratios. Too warm or too cold and you'll have lower ratios. -15C is the ideal temp at to maximize dendrites.
