Baroclinic Zone
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Everything posted by Baroclinic Zone
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Yeah, initially the thread was for Thursday, which has gone poof and maybe we get weekend threat but that still remains to be seen.
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Yeah, we ended up pretty damn close to 10:1 here. Spot on to the 1/2" QPF Euro number we were seeing.
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ICON has it as well fwiw
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NAM definitely the warmest model. GGEM would be the coldest.
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Real nice look on the GGEM.
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Lead wave on Thur/Fri on GFS is OTS but there is a follow-up wave that if we can get enough wave spacing and heights are able to respond, it may come up the coast some. Still battling the confluence to the north though so there is only so much it can come north.
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Agreed, Anywhere off the Cape/Islands looks pretty safe for advisory there.
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It's not too far off from the NAM on 925mb temps.
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RGEM closes off at 925mb, thus mitigating the warm intrusion.
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I honestly enjoy tracking storms than I do results of them.
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But the model shows it so we discuss it.
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Ray, you didn't screw up. I'd give it a B grade forecast. I felt the band was going to set up further S & E over SE MA. Certainly not from Hartford up over to Westwood. I ended up in a "relative" min compared to Norfolk County and out on Cape. Still my 2nd biggest event of the season after Dec.
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If the NAM is to believed the s/w came in a bit stronger and further north. Low level air flow out ahead is able to come from a more southerly trajectory, which warms the surface temps and lowest levels above 0C.
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Looks like a good presentation to go through. https://www.weather.gov/media/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/winter_stuff/Winter_Stuff/Forecasting_P_Type.pdf
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There is a bit of a warm tongue at 925mb there. Would suck to have a pretty good clipper for many ruined by a few degrees .
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Low level temps will definitely determine how wet a snow looks/feels. It's wont dictate ratios though. Temps aloft and how deep the SGZ are will dictate ratios. Too warm or too cold and you'll have lower ratios. -15C is the ideal temp at to maximize dendrites.
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Yeah, that was a bit unexpected.
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This won't be paste. Antecedent is even colder than yesterdays storm. This could be a fluffer. Just need some help in the lift department to get this ramped up some beyond 1-3" type deal. Euro was good. NAM coming in pretty good too.
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Feb 2015 MEH. Still have another 36" to get to where we were OTG. I have about 4" now.
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I have a feeling this tickles South more.
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Gonna need to pop a ridge out west some to get this to turn the corner. Trend has been to flatten this out over time.
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Stickier snow at home vs work. Could see a clear change once you got into Wrentham. Nothing stuck to trees at all where everything is caked at home.
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Let’s do it all again next year
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Always the worst watching the clock wind down to end these games. Feels like it takes forever.
