Baroclinic Zone
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Everything posted by Baroclinic Zone
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Only running 15F above surrounding stations.
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Think someone tossed a jet engine near TAN ASOS.
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I think you would have found the best omega/DGZ was further N in that band early on and now that we have the SLP in the strengthening stages its collapsing it all further S and E. This current band should congeal as it comes E and where that sets up, you'll see the highest totals. Does not look widespread though.
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That's always how preface my posts. BOX forecast is in deep deep doo doo.
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Yup there is is a band traversing from about Danbury up over to Tolland. See if folks can score 1-3" under it. Just started here in Milford on the north east edge of that.
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There is an obs/nowcast thread folks.
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12z Reggie cut way back
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It's good for short-term guidance.
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Each run of HRRR keeps cutting back.
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Sucker hole, well modeled.
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A discussion for another time and I'm not diminishing from what your feeling is, it's been a good one for you for sure.
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Are HRRR/RAP run on their own model physics or do they use either the NAM/GFS as part of it?
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Pulling for ya. Less than 10" here thus far.
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@Damage In Tolland pray the 12z NAM is correct.
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I had 2005 as well. Had over 100" that winter.
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True story.
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Gonna need some uber ratios to achieve the widespread 4-6"
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Tolland I'm expecting 1-2" here. I'm going up upstream radar and short-term models. It just doesn't look to be coming together as robust as yesterday was showing.
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What does this even mean?
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I-84 N
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Can clearly see the banding N and S when looking at Albany and Upton radar,
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Best is still Pike N imo. Feel that's where the banding will be and S of that there will be a subsidence zone.
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11z HRRR is pretty paltry.
