Jebman

Buffalo is gonna be a great place for an EPIC lake effect snow jebwalk!

Is that 6 FEET of snow? I might have to go up there to dig them out of all that snow!

This is an historic opportunity for an epic jebwalk, right smack-dab into the Snow Zone!

Not sure whether this is the right subforum, but snow discussions are sure interesting. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon depicts a weak surface low exiting the region across the St Lawrence Valley, as a deep trough pivots across the Great Lakes region. Cold air behind this surface low will produce relatively disorganized lake effect precipitation through the remainder of the day. Temperatures early this afternoon continue to hover in the 30s, marginal enough to allow for a mix of rain, snow, and even some graupel to fall east of the lakes. A rapid changeover to all snow will occur this evening as cold air continues to pour into the region, with LE activity becoming better organized. This will mark the beginning of our prolonged, significant lake effect snow event. For accumulations today however...A few inches of wet snow can be expected across portions of the Boston Hills, Wyoming County, and Chautauqua Ridge by nightfall...And a more widespread slushy coating across the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region. Heading into this evening, lake effect will be intensifying off Lake Erie, while the intensity really ramps up off Lake Ontario during the second half of tonight. The intensifying lake effect will be partially due to the removal of diurnal mixing, but more importantly due to a deepening colder airmass, equilibrium levels (cap) shooting upwards of 15-17kft as the mid level trough approaches, lowering of DGZ into much better moisture field and strong lift within the DGZ. With that said, have upgraded Wyoming and Lewis counties to Lake Effect Snow Warnings. The warmth of Lake Erie will promote thermal surface troughing and a 10 deg or so backing of the flow. This will direct the heaviest lake snows closer to the lakeshore so that the northern portion of Chautauqua, northwestern Cattaraugus, far western Wyoming and southern Erie county receive the brunt of the snow. There will be a lesser impact of warmer lake waters on the steering flow off Lake Ontario, but still expect the band to be some 5-10 miles further north than advertised by most guidance. This will target the southern/southwestern slopes of the Tug (southwestern Lewis county) and much of Oswego county. Snowfall tonight east of Lake Erie will range from 5-10 inches near the Chautauqua ridge/northwestern Cattaraugus and western Wyoming county, to possibly near a foot across some of the higher terrain across southern Erie county. Snowfall rates of 1"+/hour could occur across portions of southern Erie county late this evening into the early overnight hours. Off Lake Ontario expect 3 to 6 inches over a good portion of Oswego county east across the southern/southwestern slopes of the Tug Hill in southwestern Lewis County, with the bulk of that coming during the second half of tonight. Given the amount of lift, higher cap and depth of the mixed phase layer, have kept some thunder and lightning in each area of lake effect...staying within 10-15 miles of each lake (ie. source of instability). Low temps will be in the 20s across the area tonight. A 270-280 flow will be in place over both lakes on Thursday with a similar capping inversion height. Lake effect snow will continue off both lakes, however the heaviest snow will fall across Oswego and southwestern Lewis county Thursday morning when snowfall rates may top 1"/hr impacting the morning commute. An additional 6-10 inches of snow is expected here during the day, again with a good portion of that falling during the morning hours into the early afternoon. Off Lake Erie, additional daytime snowfall will range from 3 to 5 inches across the warned areas. Overall, the lake effect machine will weaken some later Thursday afternoon, before quickly ramping up again later Thursday evening. Outside of the lake effect areas, expect just mainly partly to mostly cloudy skies. Otherwise, it will be brisk and chilly with high temps ranging from around the freezing mark across the higher terrain to mainly the mid 30s across the rest of the area.

Even so, I hope and pray that the East gets ALL the Vodka Cold this winter! And all the deep snow!

You're gonna do better than that this winter. You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE EAST----- Beware of the impending cold! Storm tracks are also setting up for massive snows in the mid atlantic in DJFM. Cosgrove says it all, even mentions 13-14!!! -------------------------- I have been very candid with my ideas about how the later fall and the winter months will turn out. This is not a typical La Nina episode, and in fact it is sharing some similarity to the previous two years in that mild/warm spells may occur in the U.S., but those never seem to last. In fact, you can easily see some similarities to November/December periods in 1983, 1993, 1995 and 2013. There is a presence of cAk vortices at 500MB into southern Canada; expansion/stretching/splitting of the stratospheric circumpolar vortex; and strong southern branch influences even in the presence of -ENSO signatures. A break toward milder air in much of the lower 48 states seems probable in the last days of November, and possibly in the first week of December. But gaze at those 10MB maps. A huge stratospheric cold gyre drifts from northern Russia into Arctic Canada. There is usually a reaction time on a surface imprint or reflection in temperatures of anywhere from two to four weeks. The steering level, 500MB level will assume some resemblance to the cold core aloft. I notice that a -AO/-NAO signal appears in about 15 days; if so, the bitter cold, far worse than what is seen now, will regroup and press toward the lower 48 states. The southern branch disturbances that I have discussed are also important. The current track scenarios are roughly California/Texas/Georgia/Massachusetts/Nova Scotia. But with increased presence of Arctic cold, and deeper full-latitude troughs, the cyclone pathways may sag further south. If so, the snowpack and freeze lines could drop down. The period between December 7 and 21 will prove critical to how the rest of the winter turns out. That would be a match for the stratospheric actions, the one place where the numerical models have been consistent on synoptic evolution. Because if the 10MB, 500MB and boundary layer outcomes keep repeating, the same sequence of weather events will re-occur in January and February. ------------------------------------ Remember folks, remember that the Jebman warned you first about this upcoming winter in the mid atlantic! It is setting up, and you folks are LONG OVERDUE for a frigid snowy winter! You are going to be on a heater, and Bob Chill is going to need a truly Brobdingnagian Face with what is going to be developing in the models! Stock up on whatever it is that you use to stay up. You're gonna need it.

We have been nice and warm down here, I have been enjoying my Early Girl tomatoes fresh right off the vine. We got off real easy last night, it was supposed to hit 28 degrees and freeze everything. We got off with 37 and my tomatoes are in perfect shape. Its been chilly with 50s in the daytime, I want my 80s/68 dewpoints back, but at least we dodged the frost. I love how I am living so far south, that in December everyone is wading azz deep in wind driven snow, all while I relax next to our blue pool in a nice t-shirt in 70s weather.

It's gonna be! Mid Atlantic is gonna get absolutely demolished by snow and frigid cold.

You guys are on the east side (the warm side) of this trough, but once that frigid cold front hits you, temps will be 20-30 degrees colder than normal. You guys in N VA will be in the 20s for highs. Its FREEZING COLD here in South Texas. We are being subjected to cold highs around 53 and lows below freezing. Remember that normal January highs/lows down here are 59/41. I am used to 83/70 in November, think it is quite cool in fact. I wear light jackets at night in 68 degree dewpoint weather with an 18mph south wind off the Gulf. I have really adapted to this climate! But you all in the mid atlantic are gonna get frozen but good by this once it hits you. You will have deep winter highs and lows in N VA once that front gets to you. In mid November. It's this early and we are already facing killing frosts in South Central Texas! I spent 6 hours this frigid afternoon covering pipes, plants, checking on the dogs, cats and elderly friends. Its supposed to STAY in the low/mid 50s for TEN DAYS! Meteorologists are even saying we might have a day of highs only in the upper 40s! Our normal January high temperatures are not that low! That, is absolutely unusual for us at this time of year! We usually cool down for 2 days then it is back to the refreshing breezes off the beloved Gulf of Mexico! Not anymore. Never forget, the winter will always remember November. This, is going to be a horrendously frigid winter, ESPECIALLY back East in the mid atlantic, where the troughs are gonna stick around forever. The Mid Atlantic is long overdue for a record cold, record snow winter, which you are assuredly going to get this winter. Enjoy!

You mean the Deadskins lol. Just to remind everyone - Your average high and low are 59/41 - which happen to be Buda Texas's average January high and low, lol.

DC Region is overdue for a frigid, snowy, jebwalk-packed winter. You're gonna get it this winter.

You are probably referring to 2009-2010. That winter we had THREE Blizzards. I remember it because dad and I were trying so hard to come home from Hollywood Casino during one of the snowstorms, we had to turn back because the damn clouds and snow made it near impossible to drive. We had to turn back and I won a thousand dollars and change on the slots.

Gonna see two things in the Mid Atlantic this winter: Lots of deep troughs, and an increasingly active southern jet stream. Stock up NOW on whatever enables you to stay up for days on end analyzing model runs. You're gonna need it. Mid Atlantic is going to get buried in snow alive. You'll be crawlin' out of your second story windows, the snowpack will get so deep. DT is gonna be WOOF'n a LOT, and Bob Chill is gonna need a much bigger FACE.

I've watched numerous vids of the damage. My heart is torn to shreds. Poor people, homes are gone, they are homeless and refugees and their neighborhoods are no more. We need to send lots and lots of aid! Floridians need our help like never before! I might go down there with a Jebman Shovel and try to dig sand off the Ft Myers roadways.

Just WOW. What an EPIC writeup!

Coastal South Carolina should look out for heavy rain and possible tropical storm force gusts, as well as a modest surge threat. Stable air farther inland will work against heavy rain there.

Be very, very careful what you wish for.

Check out this time lapse radar of Ian https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/28/us/hurricane-ian-florida

That's because they gonna get 5 inches of rain from Ian and you might eke out 2 lol

This is NO time for a jebwalk.

Key West Cam https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/ Look at those waves already!

I am praying for you all in Florida. Storm surge along with large battering waves and debris propelled by the wind and waves will cause serious damage. Praying for a miracle on the West Coast of Florida. Stay very safe everyone.

C'mon guys, if I was on the beach in west FL and there was a storm like this incoming, there would be a hell of a lot more posts! Let's TRACK THIS STORM! Cat 4 is gonna be BAD on the coast!

Wow you guys sure got a massive Canadian airmass! You're in the mid 60s right now with northerly wind gusts to 41 mph! Right now in south central Texas, sunny with 8 mph out of the SE and a high of 102 degrees lol.