Jebman

Some of Larry Cosgrove's latest thoughts concerning the upcoming EPIC snow/cold Winter of 2021-2022! https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/ADgWeB2FI_E At some point, another large, powerful storm like Ida or Larry is going to crack the subtropical high. I would suspect that such a feature would be derived from the African ITCZ family, with two destination threats: the islands rimming the Caribbean Sea and/or the Eastern Seaboard. Using the model ensemble packages as a guide, the last week in September and the first 20-15 days in October would be the target zone. Given the fact that we keep seeing interaction with frontal structures, rather than a "sweep out" function, I am very concerned for the area from Florida to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, back into Appalachia. All of those 1950s analogs scaled up in intensity with warmer oceanic and atmospheric regimes may prove quite bothersome for the eastern quarter of North America. Keep your eyes on Russia and the Arctic Circle. I am seeing a tendency for closed low or vortex formation in Siberia. If snow and cold start to pile up in that vicinity, ridging will likely follow around the North Pole. That is a negative Arctic Oscillation (-AO) signature. And if the Equatorial Moisture Axis feeding the current Mexican disturbance holds (like it did in 2007-08, any storms in the percolating jet stream along the middle latitudes is going to get juiced in a hurry. It is too early to make a definitive call for the winter, but I will tell you this: there are many choice ingredients being mixed into the DJFM soup!

JEBMAN RED ALERT, for potentially heavy rains over the Mid Atlantic / Washington Metropolitan Region. You guys just keep right on piling it up! This, is what is gonna happen this winter, only then it will be SNOW. ...Update to include the Washington Metro area/portions of northern Virginia into the Flash Flood Watch. The previous discussion follows... An upper-level trough will continue to dig over the Great Lakes tonight while a cold front (currently over western Maryland) moves into the area from the northwest. A southerly flow has caused an unstable atmosphere with the latest mesoanalysis showing around 1500-2500 MLCAPE near/east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains. Convergence near the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains is increasing in response to the approaching cold front from the northwest and an outflow boundary that was seen on KLWX radar moving southeast to northwest earlier this evening. At the same time, deep layer shear and low-level shear are increasing in response to the digging trough and falling heights. Therefore, it is likely that showers and heavier thunderstorms will develop near the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains of northern VA and north-central Maryland this evening, before slowly propagating southeast. A few severe storms are possible due to the instability and shear, with damaging winds being the primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of the eastern WV panhandle, central MD, portions of northern VA, and the Washington Metro area. Also, with increasing moisture and a shear vector nearly parallel to the approaching cold front, this suggests that heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may train over any particular area before the cold pool eventually takes over. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for central and northeastern MD as well as northern Virginia and the Washington Metro area where confidence is highest for the potential of training convection and Flash Flood Guidance is lower. The stronger convection will shift toward southern MD overnight, but more showers will likely persist as the upper-level trough approaches and large scale lift ensues due to the right entrance of the upper-level jet strengthening overhead and the cold front still nearby.

Oct 30 2015? Buda got 17 inches and Wimberley got 26 inches, that was the day I got my new laptop lol. BAD, BAD flooding in south central Texas. I didnt live down here yet, but I was down in Buda for 8 months in 2015 to get all my teeth removed lol.

Love this vid shot in Houma during Ida!

FIXED.

I have heard of their wild temperature swings. I was upset about the mild weather because all I ever wanted, was the snow we got then more snow on top of it!

I dont think FL will ever have a tsunami. Here is another good video, some surge in this one during Hurricane Delta, tho it might be freshwater flooding

I dont mind a good strong hurricane, as long as it hits, say, Miami Florida. Chasers always chase them then I get to kick back and watch the storm to my heart's content on YouTube. Bring it ON!

We got another inch and a half of rain yesterday at 2pm. That brings us to 40.6 inches on the year and 8.3 inches of rain for August. August here is usually very dry and very hot, day after day of 103 degrees and clear blue skies with hardly any clouds. Not so this year, lots clouds and regular rains, kind of like what we see here in May. In May, we got 16-18 inches of rain.

I already love the March 2011 vids about Japan, and especially the Christmas 2004 videos about the incredible Thailand tsunami! Kesennuma tsunami, that went right up the Okawa River! The power of that black water! Wow wow wow wow! What can I say?

This is a good one. Listen to that howl and roar!

You gotta admit the power, the ROAR, the incredible energy of a well developed Cane! Especially when you are safe about 769 feet above sea level LOL like me! I mean, I'm crazy about hurricanes but I dont place myself in danger lol! Its so damned addictive! I'm addicted and I know I'm addicted! Check THIS one out! Wow man, LIVE 28 foot storm surge! Wow wow!

I have got a confession. I know I am 100% safe from hurricanes here in south central Texas. I know for a fact that I will never actually be in a hurricane as long as I stay in my safe city, Buda, Texas. The confession I have is that I am absolutely ADDICTED to hurricane chaser YouTube vids. I adore Hurricane Matthew in 2018. Mexico City, I love the violence and the ROAR of that beautiful wind! I love the chaser having to DRIVE thru the STORM SURGE! WHAT A FRACKIN' RUSH!!!!!!!! I am so safe here. I can kick back and watch those vids in complete safety, and I absolutely yearn for more and more and more and more hurricane videos and secretly hope for a scary indomitable 200 mph sustained Gulf Coast Hurricane, because I know those highly addicted storm chasers will get me my prized hurricane vid, in which I'll get to see STORM SURGE! All from the safety and comfort of my favorite kick-back chair! I am so blessed! Nothing can possibly get to me in the landlocked fastness of Central Texas! The best hurricane of all would be a monster 230 mph Cat 5 with gusts to 310mph behemoth slow mover, buzzsawing hell out of the Coast while storm chasers go completely CRAZY about it as they position and reposition themselves, get out of their well-equipped storm chase vehicles and get all excited and gesticulate at the fast moving threatening black clouds as the cameras are rollin' and I get to enjoy so many videos for all-time! It slowly moves inland then stalls and is so damned slow about decaying lol, and feet of fresh rain pile up while I enjoy the entire thing! Its amazing the way chasers will recall past storms, reciting many different years that 'Canes hit a location! Its very interesting! Harvey was so fun! All that deep flooding! People frantically twittering for help while the water rose VISIBLY in kitchens! I absolutely adore global warming, love the oceans full of fervent heat! Imagine the sea level rise! Imagine entire coastal cities having to be relocated! Imagine hurricanes so bad that 50 foot storm surge becomes routine! Imagine the excitement of 4 foot rains becoming routine! Man I loved that Hurricane Michael Mexico City video so much! I have happily watched it hundreds of times! I guess I am now the Hurricane Man, instead of the snow shoveling man. I leave you with this beautiful video, my personal favorite.

Dont rely on NWS radars. Get myRadar! Its free and looks great! I use it all the time! Sorry NWS, no disrespect intended to you, but I found a better radar!

We've gotta try!

If that levee was overtopped, it will get very bad.

Not sure if this has already been posted. Mods feel free to knock it down, but just HAD to post it - https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LIX&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .SHORT TERM...All eyes on Ida. Ida continues to strengthen through the day and the 4pm advisory now has Ida at 105 mph with a minimum central pressure of 976mb. Ida is forecast to still become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane and could strengthen all the way up to landfall which is now expected by midday/early afternoon tomorrow. If you have not finished your preparations yet FINISH THEM NOW! If you are under a mandatory evacuation...LEAVE NOW! You do not want to play around with your life and it is not worth it to stay if you have the means to leave. Ida is moving to the northwest around a ridge centered over the Atlantic coast around SC/NC. This has provided a very well defined steering current leading Ida directly towards the north-central Gulf. Ida has been gaining strength through the day and the presentation on satellite is very ominous. A few very concerning observations. Ida still hasn`t really rapidly intensified yet, and the thinking is it still will and that now means that it could be strengthening up to or just before making landfall. Even though that hasn`t occurred it is already stronger than what the guidance was initially expecting and it has been a slow increase. Ida is going to continue to strengthen for at least the next 12-18 hours. There is no dry air around, upper level outflow is quite impressive, and Ida will move over the warmest and deepest part of the Gulf. This is all very conducive for strengthening. What this can mean is that there may not be time for an eye wall replacement cycle to get started which would lead to some slight weakening but as mentioned already it could be strengthening up to landfall. The track has been sliding just a touch east of the forecast and this is leading to some greater concerns with respect to surge in some areas and rainfall potential in areas that just can not handle heavy rain. First any more adjustments east will cause surge to become a greater problem along the east facing shores of Louisiana. The current track is going to bring UNSURVIVABLE surge up Barataria and Terrebonne Bays. Much of coastal LA is just marsh so this surge will penetrate well inland and unless you are within the Hurricane Risk Reduction System you are putting your life in danger and do not expect to receive any help if you are caught and cut off. This includes both west and east of the mouth of the MS River in SELA. Outside of those areas life threatening storm surge is expected to occur in the tidal lakes and coastal MS. Lake Pontchartrain could see 6 to 8 feet of surge and possibly even higher in the northwestern sections of the lake around Tangipahoa Parish and western St Tammany parish. Coastal MS especially west of Ocean Springs could see up to 11ft. Locations that typically have tidal issues in Hancock county should leave now as storm surge will be extremely dangerous. Winds will be dangerous to destructive through our entire CWA. The most destructive winds will occur along the coast of Louisiana where devastating structural damage could occur as winds are expected to gust over 160 mph! This will severely damage to destroy most structures that are not well built. Locations around New Orleans could see winds that are far stronger than what was experienced last year during Hurricane Zeta with much of the area likely seeing winds gusts in excess of 100 mph. If there is any more of a jog east these winds will be even higher. Winds funneling through some of the high rises will be even stronger. Around Baton Rouge we could see wind damage that far eclipses what was seen during Hurricane Gustav. Winds gusts over 110 mph are possible that far inland. This will lead to widespread tree damage, structural damage, and massive power outages which could take weeks to restore. Across southwest MS winds will remain very strong likely gusting over hurricane force around Wilkinson County and gusting to near hurricane force as far east as McComb. Northshore areas, especially along the lake could see wind gusts over hurricane force with widespread tree damage and power outages. Coastal MS likely to see winds gusts over 60 mph at times which could still lead to damage and widespread power outages. The other life threatening concern is heavy rain. This is two fold though because of where it could fall combining that with the surge in the lake and along the coast. We are anticipating a band of very heavy rain that could be 15 to 20 inches and possibly higher. If this falls over the city of New Orleans it will overwhelm the pumps with extremely dangerous flash flooding possible. At the same time winds could be dangerous and this would prevent people from trying to find higher ground. Other areas of major concern is along and north of I-12. This is the area where we have many rivers that are quick to respond, Amite/Comite, Tickfaw, Tangipahoa, Bogue Chitto, and across the MS border in coastal MS we have the the Hobolochittos and Wolf. All of these rivers and a few more respond rather quickly to heavy rain and the combine with the problem of surge into the lake and along coastal MS. The surge will push up these rivers and the rain will have no where to go and quickly lead to dangerous flash flooding conditions. Combine the possibility of debris clogging up other areas of drainage and widespread life threatening flash flooding is possible. Please if you live in a flood prone area highly consider leaving. If this rain falls directly over you the drainage and rivers could be overwhelmed quickly and you could be cut off with rising water.

I am really hoping and praying we dont end up with a 1921-like hurricane season in central Texas. Sept 7 thru 11 that year, Austin got drowned by 15 plus inches of rain from a hurricane. We are already approaching 40 inches of rain so far this year, in a place that usually barely ekes out 30 inches in a year.

Got clobbered yet again here in south central Texas, 2 more inches, sitting at 39 inches for the year, 6.5 inches for August. We are WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY above normal now lol. Gardens are goin wild lol. Got lots and lots of fresh rainwater in huge buckets all ready to go. Just when we thought it was dryin' up..........NOPE

Could be active in the Gulf this season. Lets just hope they all hit the E GOM. Central TX is already pushing 40 inches on the year. We really dont need another Allison lol. Or Harvey. Especially over Austin.

In this particular case, I think he will be correct. East Coast will get smashed by numerous major hurricanes. I think Florida and the Outer Banks are going to get utterly demolished, especially Miami. It is going to be very concerning the number of rapidly intensifying tropical entities that will smash into FL this season.

Larry Cosgrove thinks East Coast will get hit by hurricanes this summer/fall.

Hope you feel much better soon! Hit the vitamin C, D and A. Drink as much water as you can and have chicken soup as hot as you can stand it with as much pepper as you can stand. Get lots of rest. It'll go away fast. Drink a lot of orange juice too.

Soil moisture is so high down here! Dewpoint is 81 degrees, but ambient temp is only 82!!!! Average high is 99. We got another third of an inch yesterday. That brings us to 4.5 inches just this month! Just wow wow wow wow! My tomato plant is growing vines all over and the watermelon vine is getting all over the place! This much rain most of the spring and all summer is definitely very very abnormal for us. The lawn is emerald green. It should be brown and dusty. Dewpoint is 81 degrees, I think this would be a very good time for a jebwalk!

Absolutely resplendent! Couldnt ask for better weather, unless it was 5 degrees with thick clouds and 9 inch an hour snow rates!