Jebman

I absolutely love this, George BM! I look forward to it every month! You need followup assessments. This is great stuff and YOU ARE NO WANNABE forecaster. The National Weather Service should be feverishly taking notes! Hint hint, Millville Wx! On another note: Mid Atlantic is enjoying 72/53 weather right now. Autumn is arriving ahead of schedule in your region. Everything is on track. Progressively cooler and rainier weather will ensue, deepening gradually into chilly then colder weather, with phase change conditions first developing in November, earlier in the mountains. December will see snow in Washington DC, with a debilitating White Christmas and possibly a NYE encore. Some communities particularly in higher terrain may end up with a white Thanksgiving in 2023! The New Year will be devastating both in terms of extreme snows and in terms of Vodka Siberian cold. Weather will be troffy well into June 2024 in the East. This means YOU, Mid Atlantic!

Hopefully you guys can start getting some decent rain soon.

Its going to be a BIG WINTER, and frigid, with lots of snow. You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

It was 108 today. Then storms hit us with 55 mph winds that lifted a ton of dust. It cooled off to 90/68 but it felt to me like 73/53. The rain was farther east, but at least it cooled us down. It's been a hot hot summergeddon down here. Tomorrow, cool wave with highs only around 99. That's cool, after days of 105, 106, 107, and 108 for highs.

It's setting up for a cool autumn with breathtaking foliages then a frigid winter laden with snow after snow after snow after snow after snow. You're going to get so much of it that you're gonna be TIRED of snow, yet it will just keep on smashing the Mid Atlantic completely into wintry, frigid, Siberian smithereens. It will snow deep, you will dig it with a patented Jebman Shovel, only to have stiff northerly breezes pile it right back on your driveway, and you'll bounce out of bed the next frigid morning to find your car drifted in but good, in a five foot drift, of hard packed snow. Its gonna happen a lot.

It is 108 NOW, and we just might have a shot at 109 or 110. Its hot as hell down here. Dont visit Texas right now. It's Hellageddon down here.

The heat isn't just getting to us. It is getting to the models, too. It's so damn hot out that it is even getting to the A.I.'s.

It hit 105 degrees Saturday. Today, Sunday, it is forecast to top out at 107 degrees again. This stuff is becoming routine. The well ran out of water twice in the past two weeks. This flash drought is getting BAD.

You should, because you are gonna get hosed down with a lot of snow this winter.

Good for you! For me, it's a warm pleasant 106 with mid 60s dewpoints. These boiling hot pure air temperatures are becoming routine. Its been well above normal for weeks and weeks and even plants under solid canopies protected from the sun and watered are turning brown as a Thanksgiving turkey. Tree leaves are turning brown and falling to the ground as though it were Dec 25. Its another day of 'As The Texas Drought Turns'. The shade is no sanctuary, that wind burns. I am beginning to yearn for the glaciers of Banff, AB. Oh by the way, the well pump is on the Fritz right now, and I am just bursting with joy as I strain to move 5 gallon containers of water from my neighbor in the warm Texas sunshine. Never a dull moment here in the Heat Dome of Doom, lol.

Really congratulating you, and I am very happy you had such a good time up there in AB! Love the snow and ice in August! And the 33 degree waters! I would have jumped in like a fool - and probably made the Albertan news cycle for sure! If it is like this in August I wonder what that place is like in deep Winter! Probably meters of wind driven snow and temps in the negative 30s and 40s!

Get your tickets and passes early! Palisades Tahoe opens on Nov 22 2023! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/events-and-activities/events-calendar/opening-day-event

Yeah, I forgot the Midwest does get hot and humid. I remember visiting my grandmother in Palatine Illinois back in the day, about 1979, jebwalking along the Northwest Highway in ridiculous humidity and temps in the 90s. She lived at 1360 N. Grove Avenue. That entire area got developed. It looks so different today, from what it used to look like back in my grandparents' day. It was out right rural in 1979. Today it resembles 2023 Dale City Virginia. They sold the place then the new owners remodeled it quite a bit. Even the front yard looks drastically different.

Northern Illinois is pretty humid today. Crystal Lake, in north Illinois, has a dewpoint of 80 degrees, current pure air temperature is 92 which means it feels like 111 degrees in the shade.

Just wait til this autumn when that moderate El Nino-augmented subtropical jet starts getting into the act. Add to that unprecedented sea surface temps and you have the recipe for a fall/winter season far exceeding George BM Parameters. You are going to have the time of your forecasting life this fall and winter. Don't forget your Jebman Shovels and beer and IPA's. Stockpile enough for at least six months. You're gonna need it. This is going to be a memorable winter in the Mid Atlantic. Get snow tires and chains. Some localities in the mid Atlantic are going to get Palisaded pretty bad. Stock pile whatever it is you use to stay awake, because you are all gonna be on those MODELS for days and days and days this autumn and especially winter.

This is extremely bad. This here, is WISCONSIN we are talkin about. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 621 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues; noticeably more humid. Wednesday to be the hottest day of the week with record/near record temperatures and heat index values climbing to 105 to 115 degrees. It's one thing when it is this hot in south central Texas. It is quite another thing when my elderly uncle in La Crosse, WI has to try to contend with Austin, TX-magnitude extreme heat.

Well we hit 108 degrees again, then spent most of the boiling day at 106. I had to spend four hours today picking up trash at the park after the damn soccer game. It was hot as hell out there.

In Buda, Texas we hit 108 hot degrees today. The wind in the shade is a hot oven. Plants are shriveling up. I water our fruit trees. No matter, the leaves turn brown anyhow. This is getting BAD. No rain for weeks yet. All the models are printing out for us, is hot and dry, hotter and dry for the foreseeable future. The future is bright, very snow bright in the DC Region beginning in November. The subtropical jet will be an absolute BEAST and bring massive storms, that will explode because of the hot ocean SSTs. It's going to be a long, frigid, SNOWY winter in the mid Atlantic!

I watched Statter's vid. I am so frackin' GLAD I dont live in North Va anymore. This Hellageddon Monster Heat Wave in Texas may kill me yet - but at least we dont have those I 395 crazies down in south central Texas. Yet. It was BAD as heck in northern Virginia in 2018 in August when I made my escape.

We hit 107 for the second time in a week down here. Its 106 degrees right now. It's high time I moved to Jasper and live in an ice cave lol.

Here is an excerpt from todays AFD here in Scorch, Texas: .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 The Subtropical High that has remained centered over the region for the better part of the last 2 months shows little sign of budging in the long term. This pattern is already becoming semi permanent. I continue to theorize that the cool wet East / Hellish hot very dry scorched West and South/Southwest pattern alignment will more or less obtain into the New Year, and that this will result in a very cold very snowy winter for the Mid Atlantic. Texas will dry up and blow away, as will most of the Deep South and the usual suspect areas in the West. I think that 100s may continue unabated and unabashed in Texas, into possibly November! While in the East, rains will continue and cold front after cold front will smash into the Mid Atlantic into the new year. For all intents and purposes, Autumn has already begun in the Mid Atlantic, and temps will become progressively cooler, then chilly, then transition down into snow weather. Not only will DC have a white Christmas, but they may also end up with a white Thanksgiving! Hellageddon will continue apace in the Deep South, centered upon Texas, for the next few months, while the East will get cooler and cooler and will get a lot of rain, much more than usual per strong Nino, then snow, and lots of it.

Glad to see you are having a good time, but those pics are makin me so jealous.

I am very, VERY jealous! Be very careful tryin to jebwalk on that ice! It's very slippery! A glacier is NO place for a jebwalk.

Just a little bit of Texan Summer humor lol...... .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Control+C, Control+V yesterday`s discussion. We continue what seems like our never-ending stretch of record heat over South Central Texas through the long term forecast period. The only glimmer of hope may reside in the Subtropical Ridge migrating ever so slightly back to the north and west early next week, which may result in some seabreeze shower and storm activity, especially over the Coastal Plains. The latest NBM actually came in with 20-30% PoPs over much of the CWA for 18Z Tue-00Z Wed, but with continued hot and dry conditions and extremely dry soils and fuels, opted to remove PoPs for all but the Coastal Plains Tuesday afternoon. While flow may be more northwesterly and deterministic guidance may be feeding the NBM with higher PoPs, the latest ECMWF and GFS ensembles paint a completely different picture, with little to no rain in any of their respective members. Fire Weather concerns will continue as long as the extreme heat continues, but we should see a slight nudge down in overall wind speeds Sunday through next week, which should lower the fire weather concerns just a bit. However, headlines are still possible given extremely dry fuels and the possibility of wildfires highly resistant to control. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 We hit 106 degrees yesterday. We'll likely do it again today. I think it's high time for another leisurely jebwalk.

That looks like such a SHWEET place! I bet it was cool, too! Enjoy!