Jebman

This is a good time to head for Charles Town. They will get shellacked but good by Debby.

557 FXUS62 KRAH 080549 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 150 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front across the mid-Atlantic will linger through Thursday. The center of Tropical Storm Debby will move northwest and onto the South Carolina coast this evening and then drift northward across the central Carolinas on Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 923 PM Wednesday... * More widespread rain which will be heavy at times will spread into central NC tonight beginning a 12 to 18 hour period of the heaviest rain and greatest flash flood risk. Negligible changes with the evening update. The center of Debby is currently located just offshore near Charleston, SC. Water vapor imagery continues to depict moistening around the center of the circulation. As such, a persistent band of heavier rainfall (mostly 1.5 to 2.5 in/hr rates) has developed just to the southeast of Sampson county. CAMs continue to depict this heavier band expanding north-northwest over the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain the next several hours, followed by up into the Triangle by daybreak. Consequently, these areas have the best chance to experience flash flooding overnight as strong 925 to 850 mb moisture transport provides a continuous feed of >2.5 inches of PWAT. The other concern as we continue into the overnight period is the chance for quick spin-up tornadoes. Thus far this evening, rotating cells have largely remained to our south (although a few have recently developed near southern Sampson county). Low-level SRH of ~150 m2/s2 remains anchored over the southern Coastal Plain. This moderately-strong low-level kinematic field will expand further northwest overnight. However, weak lapse rates and overall instability will promote only occasional weak circulations through Thursday morning. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=RAH&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

That's a nice slug of efficient tropical rain! It just keeps getting larger and hammering the same communities with steady efficient heavy tropical rain! Deb is just laggin along at only 3 mph. Rain tallies will pile up!

Wilmington is getting firehosed by training efficient tropical rains. Circulation is spinning over the coast and plentiful Atlantic moisture will slam into that entire region probably into the night. That trough is no damn good and Debby won't get picked up. This is NOT a very good situation. Deb will spin like a top and there's no shortage of moisture from that ocean.

Thats it Lets get that trough to pick Deb up and get her out of the Southeast.

The rain band is moving slowly north of Savanna. They just may catch a break that could lower totals, be less catastrophic.

How much rain are you expecting with Debby?

That run, is a NIGHTMARE. Throw it out.

Deb's remnants do not seem to be moving very much. I have been watching some of the news stations in the Hilton Head region, the forecasts are VERY alarming with torrential rains training over the same places for frackin' DAYS and DAYS.

Well perhaps Hilton Head gets 15 inches instead of 30 inches. That's a relief. Perhaps Deb gets picked up and ends up faster than forecast sparing the Southeast from historic floods.

Come on guys Deb is gettin stronger and rain is really piling up in FL! Man we gotta track this storm, keep good track of the mounting rain tallies! Have we got any chasers in places like Hilton Head where the torrential rain is gonna wash everything away like the 40 day flood? C'Mon guys we gotta keep track of Debby! She is gonna get way out of control with all that rain! It is all hands on deck up in here! Look, you can sleep when you're dead!

Look out SE South Carolina region, likely 20-25 inch totals.

That's ridiculous, 20 to 30 inches of rain potentially.

The Southeast needs to prepare for a possible significant rain event from Debby, possibly to the tune of 18 to 24 inches.

Let's hope Debby moves fast, and stays relatively weak.

Hopefully NOT another Ian.

No storm post, George BM? You just broke my heart.

Hopefully it gets picked up and swept northeast.

I will tell you what is surprising. Us getting more rain, than some parts of N VA have had this year. We will see big rain events all across the South especially as we are now moving into August. We have also seen a lot more upper 70s dewpoints this summer.

Yep Houston tends to get hit by a lot of the tropical activity, particularly in the autumn.

The one in the west, if it moved to that position, would cause a huge rainband to drench south central Texas with Brobdingnagian amounts of efficient tropical rain and plunging our region into a super Uber Quagmire for all-time. We already have had 37 inches this year. NORMAL rainfall in Buda for 365 days is 30 inches. I just spent 3 hours today mowing 14 inch grasses near the pool. This is April-May, in late July! We'd all need Bayou airboats to get around in central Texas lol.

Tua Tagovailoa is gonna make 212 million in 4 years with the Miami Dolphins! https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40665874/tua-tagovailoa-thankful-dolphins-showed-money

Yeah, I got a REAL REAL BAD feeling about this. WE do NOT need a tropical dump of rain in central Texas in August. We are already so waterlogged. Its a quagmire down here. We got sacked by Brobdingnagian amounts of rain, especially for this time of the year. If this was a football game the quarterback would be in intensive care and out for at least the entire season.

I simply can not resist any longer. I really feel the Need to gloat. Dale City has had 27.48 inches of rain this year. Buda, has had nearly 37 inches since Jan 1 2024. Wow it is SO HARD TO BELIEVE! Grass and weeds are going nuts! I am having a HARD TIME keeping our yard clear of weeds! Some weeds along our back roads are getting eight, nine feet tall! WE are almost ten inches more than my old stomping grounds! I can hardly believe it! Here it is JULY, and we have had EIGHT INCHES of rain for the month, 5.3 inches of it just in the past three day storm cycle! Storm Cycle! It sounds like Palisades Tahoe in the '22-'23 Winter! We are getting George BM'ed by rain this year! No dangerous lightning. No high winds. No hail. Just nice heavy life giving sweet rain!

You guys have good rain chances there. Next 2 to 3 days, could end up with 2 to 3 inches.