Jebman

We better hope this is only a tropical storm. Or a depression. And that this DOES NOT SLOW DOWN.

Okay, this could be good. Well east of us means real hot and dry and no wind!!!!! Wow man I am gonna throw a par-tay if this happens and we end up super dry and super hot! When a TC is east of us, that is what happens, we get awarded clear very hot weather with no wind. Might be downsloping effects, but hey, I am no Met. Now just wait a cotton-pickin minute. CREEPING up the coast? I thought this system was gonnabe a pretty progressive mover? Yeah folks, I realize I am really easy to troll.......

Okay, inland track is not your focus. I am just concerned that this thing will pull a gigantic Brobdingnagian plume and associated tropical rain band out of the GoMex onto Buda, those tropical showers can be ferociously efficient, it dont take much to smash us with 12 inches of rain in a very short time, TC's tracking southwest of our location can do that........... Anyway Benchmark, thank you very much for your analysis. You do an exemplary job!!!!

40/70 so your high LF risk means places like Austin are completely out of the woods, 100 degree weather, few puffy cumulus and maybe a few 14 mph gusts, 40 percent chance of rain ? I am no forecaster but hoping that Beryl will be so weak, and so far south, that I will get to have my beloved 105 weather with a blistering Texas sun and a 5 percent chance of a stray tropical shower and 10-15 mph winds. I would rather have an EXTREME, 25,000 YEAR DROUGHT, than have a doggone hurricane in Buda. In other words Get that doggone tropical system the heck out of south central Texas. Its July. Its supposed to be HOT, DRY, and blistering SUN.

This is extremely serious. Its a developing La Nina as well. WE are all in very grim deep trouble this summer and fall, all along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, possibly well up into the Northeast.

That, is not even funny. I do NOT want 6 feet of rain in Texas or Mexico. Thanks for trolling me, Boone lol. Hey, it worked!

I am hugging the CMC like a long lost lover.

Yeah it does look more concerning for Texas but the system IS showing some slow weakening. Max sustained winds at 115mph is sure better than 165. Beryl is not going to slow down and be like Allison. As long as she keeps on moving, should not be too bad. We can handle a few inches of rain, if we even get that.

Two members on the thread. Beryl is weakening apace. Thank goodness. The GoMex Coast need worry no more. Shear is tearing Beryl apart. We can hope, and I will hope enough for millions of people all along the GoMex Coast, in the Caymans, and on the east Yucatan Coast.

Central pressure is up to 961. That's up from the mid 930s. It's getting weaker.

Its just like the Energizer Bunny...........it keeps going and going and going......... GaWx!!! That is great news! It is down to 130 mph! Maybe that shear and dry air finally starting to wear Beryl down!

The Tampico region has had lots of rain from Alberto and other systems recently.

Beryl is moving so damn fast nothing but a catastrophic Texas LF is ever gonna weaken it. It will LF and probably take its sweet time weakening. This thing has got a truly Brobdingnagian number of tricks up its sleeve. It is the Steven Seagal of storms and it has a superior attitude! Its kickin all our asses and its got Buda Texas in its sights.

One thing I always read into these tropical threads is that when they get super slow like this, it is an eminently excellent thing - because the storm is weakening, and people's interest is lagging. Therefore, Mexico and the Texas Coasts are that much safer. Shear and plenty of dry air must be sluggin' it out with Beryl, and Jamaicans will catch a break, thank goodness. Beryl must be totally exhausted by now. Even anomalous storms must take a break! Look, I can always keep dreaming, and I can keep on hoping ----- Right to the bitter end.

180 mph surface winds estimates. I hope that we dont end up with a 180 mph hurricane. Isnt 165 mph bad enough? I sure hope that this anomalous hurricane stays the heck OUT of the GoMex! Those waters are VERY warm!

Models are showing a pretty good probability of a NE Mex LF. Hopefully we can get this storm to weaken some before then.

It is improving, right in time for Jamaica. However, I have hopes for these people because the construction of these structures in that part of the world is much better than in the US.

Take all the model tracks, just pick the middle. That would likely be NE Mex.

Here's to hoping that Beryl will get Chris'd.

AMZ001-022100- Synopsis for Caribbean Sea, and Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to 19N W of 55W 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Major Hurricane Beryl is near 14.6N 66.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 19 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 935 mb. Beryl will move to 15.5N 69.6W this afternoon, 16.5N 73.4W Wed morning, 17.4N 76.8W Wed afternoon, 18.2N 80.2W Thu morning, 18.7N 83.6W Thu afternoon, and 19.3N 86.7W Fri morning. Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm over 21.2N 91.8W early Sat. A surge of fresh to strong winds and squalls is expected to move across the tropical N Atlantic tonight through Wed, then across the eastern and central Caribbean Wed through Fri, associated with a tropical wave, Invest 96L. $$ https://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=amz041&syn=amz001 That's sustained winds of 166 mph, gusting to 201 mph. This, is getting alarmingly BAD.

If Beryl becomes a sub-930 hurricane.......

165 mph sustained winds. Just wow.

If Beryl were to hit Houston, Buda would have relatively weak north winds. It would not be all that bad for us. But if it hits Corpus........ uh - oh. Everyone from Yucatan to Florida needs to watch. And pray. This is getting serious scary. Nothing weakens Beryl. Not shear, not nothing.

Yeah I used to think I wanted to go chase a Cat 5 with a pro chaser, but naaaaah. Risk can be fun but that would be pushing it. I'll stick with clearing brush in 103 weather in south Texas.

145 kts = 171 mph. Look, I dont want this. I never, EVER want to see a hurricane like this for real, but could this thing reach 200 mph? I know this is a super anomalous season with above norm SSTs, but that would be beyond ridiculous. In early July. In the ECARIB, for gollys sakes.