Jebman

Hey wxmx, stay safe down there in Monterrey.

IF we could get the rain. I'd love to see 2-5 inches tomorrow here in Buda BUT models are shifting the heavy stuff south. Nina summer/autumn does not look good for us, much drier, hotter in Nina.

No surprise. Gulf storm rain shield will be well south of Austin. I will get about one one thousand twenty fourth of an inch of rain from 91L. This is about fifteen sigmas above normal for moisture from a tropical system in the Austin region in June. Gradient will be heartbreakingly sharp. I should have known not to get my hopes up for rain. I know where I live now, June is the beginning of the arid season. Austin is often California dry in Nina years, but on the other hand, we laugh at hurricanes hitting us. But I still watch and pray for the Texas coast. They DO get hit, and bad. Corpus may get 18 inches. They may get South Florida'd.

Isabel was BAD. I remember going to the OBX 3 weeks after Izzy. Houses on the beach, trees snapped off at 6 feet along I 64, beach access ramps smashed to hell, lots of hotels in Nags Head were smashed up and washing around in the high tide wavewash.

444 WTNT41 KNHC 172054 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Satellite, surface, and aircraft data show that the center of the large low pressure area is over the Bay of Campeche with a central pressure near 1001 mb. The system currently does not have the structure of a tropical cyclone, as the associated convection is poorly organized and the maximum winds are located about 200-250 n mi northeast of the center. The various global models forecast this band of stronger winds to start moving onto the western Gulf coast on Wednesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is required at this time. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The initial motion is 345/6. This general motion should continue for the next 24 h or so, although there could be some erratic motion due to center reformation. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and westward on the south side of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern Gulf coast. This should steer the system into northeastern Mexico between 48-72 h. While there are differences in details due to the disorganized nature of the system, the track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario. The global models suggest that some deepening of the central pressure could occur, although none of them currently forecast the system to tighten up into a classic tropical cyclone. Based on that, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening. There is a chance than a small-scale vorticity center inside the large cyclonic envelope may develop enough convection to form a tighter wind core as suggested by the GFS, and based on this possibility the forecast has the system becoming a tropical storm in about 36 h. However, there is a chance the system will never become a tropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track of this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/172054.shtml

Invest 91L is now classified as a Potential Tropical Cyclone in the southwest GoMex. It may become Alberto. They are expecting some rain in south central Texas, especially on Wednesday.

New Orleans is going to get a LOT of rain in the next 5 days. Most of that moisture feed is going due north. Big Easy might want to start building an ark lol. On the one hand, Austin goes bone dry from mid June thru Christmas. Rain is rare here. On the other side of the ledger, hurricanes affecting us is extremely rare, one every 135 years. I'll be long gone by 2259. We do droughts like a boss but we dont have to worry about tropical stuff very often.

This is highly concerning. I am hoping that this upcoming Nina will be as unconventional as the Nino was last year, meaning we have elevated SSTs but somehow hardly any hurricanes form and those that do recurve safely away from US interests. And, that this upcoming winter turns out the opposite of Nina climatology with cold temps and decent amounts of snow for the entire Mid Atlantic Region in 2024-2025.

Yep. First its gonna hit the western Gulf States or Mex then head straight for the Mid Atlantic.

Keep an eye on the GoMex. Might have something develop then hit Mexico or even extreme deep south Tex later this week.

There is some disturbed weather in the southern GoMex today, signs it may get its tropical act together and hit up the Gulf States including Texas with considerable rain, then head eastbound and the DC Region would be next. Need to keep a weather eye on the Gulf.

I feel ya. Used to survive in the Dale City Region 6 years ago. Come to south central TX, but beware there is a TON of construction down here. Sometimes I wish I lived in the central Rockies, or in the Yukon Territories, or even in the Australian Outback. Anyplace with a few people, nearest city is 100 miles away, and no one there has ever seen a construction machine in 50 years. I am sick to DEATH of construction and development. Its turning everything it touches into a total hellhole that would have the devil himself drooling with covetousness. I know I am being self centered here but sometimes I wish I could have an entire PLANET, an earthlike planet, to myself and maybe about 20 other people and construction was outlawed for the next 2500 years. Give south central Texas 5-10 years. Welcome to Coruscant, because that is what we will be. Every tree will be gone. Concrete for hundreds of miles in every direction. Brobdingnagian taxes and traffic jams. General weather patterns about 30 degrees hotter and 60 percent drier.

This is a very bad situation in south Florida. Those folks need help from outside the catastrophic flood zone. Hopefully drier air can filter in there and allow the waters to recede soon.

Just asking, Florida weather enthusiasts. Why don't you have a Flood thread up in here? Hey, south Florida is getting obliterated by 10 inches plus of rain, on top of what they already got in the past few days! This amounts to a historic west Florida Gulf Coast storm, a HWFGCS.

South Florida is getting George BM'ed really bad by ridiculous rains.

Breaking news: We have 95 degrees with an 80 degree dewpoint which feels like 115. This is what happened last spring, but this year we are getting it 2 to 3 weeks earlier. We indeed have a much warmer base state.

Update, 100 degrees, 78 dewpoint, feels like 118. This is very hot for early June down here. We topped out at 101 degrees, with 79 dewpoints. That's about a 118 to 120 heat index.

That was good. You'd think this was a meteorological AFD for Oklahoma in spring. George BM you need to go to weather school.

Just a friendly heads up for the NWS. You guys might want to issue an updated heat product for the EWX region here in TX. It's 97/79. It feels like 116 degrees. I know. I am out spreading mulch in this. Yeah, I need my head examined lol. Edit: It fell to 94. Now it feels like a cool 112. Gonnabe a hot day just the same. Soon as I cool off, gotta go right back out and spread more mulch. I am so tired of mom's rose bush flowerbeds. Damn thorns got me so many times.

Buda, Texas at 9pm local time, 88 degrees, with a suffocating 80 degree dewpoint. Feels like 102. Spent an hour pulling weeds and super tough grass runners that had to be tackled one by one, dozens of them, in the midst of a choking cloud of gnats and whining mosquitoes. It's fun down here. You guys should try this. It's relaxing and soothing. We had some enjoyable 115 real feel weather earlier. It was even nicer in the direct sun. We are getting off to a really good running start this summer! Oh wait! It's only late May. Summer starts JUNE 21. My bad.

Look out Washington Metro Region. Storms incoming!

It is quite hot here. Today we hit 99. Dews were as high as 79. At times, heat indices were up in the low 110s. This is kind of early for this kind of heat/ humidity.

It will definitely be better than this past ratter of a winter.

Yeah. I know the feeling. Lol

It will get better. Next winter will be very good snow wise in the SNE/ NE.