Jebman

That may be a wake up call for Campeche and later, Texas.

I bet you guys hit climo snow tallies at least.

Mid Atlantic will see some good tropical action this autumn.

In spite of the Nina, I think everyone will have climo snow tallies in 24-25. PSU will get training thundersnows and come in 300 percent of normal.

A 110 heat index is serious stuff. I am the crazy pos who is around the bend a couple weeks ago piling on mulch at 3pm in the sun with 101/79. A 110 degree heat index in DC is serious as a heart attack. Down where I am, I shouldnt think 110 is all that bad lol

Dale City hit 97 today! We only managed to eke out a 93.

Hey 40/70 Benchmark how do things look this winter with Nina? Surely someone on the East Coast will do better for snow than last "winter".

Just wow! Great pics! Stay safe!

Wow Charles Town hit 95 today! We eked out a 91.

After all the excitement of Alberto and the heavy rain we ended up with from it, I am positively JONESING for another tropical storm NOT a hurricane. I'd love another Alberto type system to spin up, not damaging anything, just bring more happy rains to Texas again. It was so much fun tracking that harmless TS. Lets have TS Beryl form, hit Corpus head on with a foot of overwash, no fatalities, some good rains there, then the harmless remnants move over Buda steadily, none of this spinning around like Allison, that can be very bad, just a nice steady progression of the remnants, I get a couple inches of rain and it moves on, waters Texas then dies. A nice harmless tropical storm, maybe a couple feet of dune erosion at worst on the coast.

Might want to start a disco about the Campeche region again, its got some activity over there.

Its hard to believe the tropics are ALREADY active in late June.

It looks like a bowling ball and it is definitely heading west. Someone needs to organize a contest in which we all guess what city the new 'Beryl' tropical system is going to make landfall.

Don't look now but something is definitely percolating over the Campeche Region. This area and tropical weather are getting to be like the energizer bunny. It just keeps going and going and going and going and going.....................

That's ridiculous. It's supposed to be that hot in Austin, but today it was 71 there with tropical rain and a northerly wind.

Well, I wanted rain. I wanted to deliver tonight but the moderate rain keeps falling. I can not even get the TRASH out, it is raining so much lmao. Need to take my own advice: Be careful what I wish for lol. After all my bellyaching last night about the storm fizzled out - this post needs about a million lmao's.

Ha ha Corpus Christi is stuck under a Gulf streamer that just keeps dumping rain on them. They might end up with 24 inches overnight.

I must say I have been pleasantly surprised by some steady moderate rain today, although I am brimming with jealousy over deep south Texas getting a foot of torrential rain. I wanted that so bad!!!!!!!!! Those warm clouds extend up to 14500 feet, and I wanted those efficient warm cloud processes SO BAD in my backyard! I never wanted torrential biblical rain so bad in my life! I craved George BM intensity ultra efficient tropical showers!

Corpus Christi AFD states another system will affect their CWA next weekend. Could this be invest 92 or 93L?

This is a very interesting pic of Alberto: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=sp&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

000 WTNT41 KNHC 191448 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy 42055 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico indicate that the system has developed a well-defined center of circulation. In addition, deep convection has formed near the center, as well as within a band extending 200 n mi to the southeast of the center. This convection is classifiable via the Dvorak technique. The system meets the necessary requirements of being a tropical cyclone and is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Alberto. Aircraft and surface observations suggest the maximum winds remain about 35 kt, but the central pressure has dropped to about 995 mb according to the dropsonde data. Some of the dropsonde and oil rig data in the northwestern Gulf indicate that stronger winds are located not too far above the ocean surface, but the environment appears too stable for sustained winds of that magnitude to mix efficiently down to the surface. Still, this could mean that gusty winds affect much of South Texas as the convective activity moves inland through the day. Alberto may have jogged a bit south now that a more defined center has become apparent, but the general motion remains westward, or 270/8 kt. This westward motion is expected to continue for the next day or two while mid-level ridging over the eastern U.S. builds westward, and the track models all agree that the center of Alberto should be inland over northeastern Mexico by this time Thursday morning. Alberto has a chance to strengthen within a favorable environment of low vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures of about 30 degrees Celsius. However, the broad circulation will still likely limit the amount of strengthening that can occur, and the NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 40 kt before the storm reaches land. There is some possibility of slight strengthening beyond that level, as suggested by the GFS and HAFS-B models. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast on Thursday. A 36-hour forecast point as a remnant low is shown mostly for continuity, but in all likelihood the system will have dissipated over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by then. Regardless of Alberto's exact track, this system will have a large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly, the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through Thursday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 22.2N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 22.3N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z 22.4N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/191448.shtml

Rain forecasts continue trending sharply downward. There is a devastating cutoff line positioned south of Buda. It will not give an inch, or one billionth of a nanometer, either. I am S out of luck here. Potential Tropical weather system or not, Austin will likely be partly cloudy tomorrow with highs in the 90s amid 80 degree dewpoints whilst areas south of I 10 get smashed by super efficient rain showers boasting rates to 3 inches per hour. Corpus is in line for at least 12 inches, maybe 16. This is quite normal for us. If you love dry weather, I can't think of a better place than Buda Texas. Nina Summer is kicking off, starting with a PTC One rain shutout. We can pray all we want. It's going to be bone dry probably well into 2025, with soil cracks big enough to fall into and break your frackin' leg, and the prospect of a triple year Nina means extremely grim water prospects lie just ahead into the next few years. With all the people moving into my part of the world, accompanied by Brobdingnagian amounts of apartment construction, I will wager you we will all soon be trying to drink from the Colorado River, with predictably horrific outcomes culminating in the late 2020s Diaspora. Enso cold or hot, it does NOT matter. Neutral enso does us absolutely no good. Dry is who we ARE! We will always be BONE DRY. Welcome to Texifornia. This is our fate. Drier, and super hot, until we flee this part of the world. Bank on this. The Diaspora is Coming. I am JEALOUS OF HOUSTON. They are getting hit by super efficient rain showers right now. They always get ALL of the doggone rain! I wish I lived in Cherrapunji, India, in a year in which they had a monsoon 2500 percent of normal. I want rain so bad! I want water everywhere! EDIT: one half inch is expected now in Austin. No surprise. This thing is FIZZLING OUT. New forecast, Buda on Weds, high 97 with 80 dews. Partly cloudy with a 10 percent chance of a light passing shower. Not even wetting rains. PTC One has completely fizzled out. Nada. What else is new under the blistering sun.

NWS is picking up on the model runs - and has trimmed rain amounts lol. No surprise there. Imma thinkin about a road trip to the coast, just to get my rain fix and maybe a little overwash fix too lol.

Hey wxmx, stay safe down there in Monterrey.

IF we could get the rain. I'd love to see 2-5 inches tomorrow here in Buda BUT models are shifting the heavy stuff south. Nina summer/autumn does not look good for us, much drier, hotter in Nina.