Jebman

So thankful the storm didn't come ashore at Corpus Christi.

Don't come to TX. You will REALLY MELT down here, lol.

I am fully content. It hit 99 today with wall to wall sunshine and I got the bajorkas worked out of me installing a new fence in the Texas sun. Few high cirrus. Same for tomorrow, highs in the upper 90s. Beryl is thankfully so far east, we got a tenth of an inch of rain in the forecast or none at all. Not to make light of Beryl hitting Houston or the Matagorda regions but hopefully the storm stays 60 mph and hits the land then decays and dumps harmless rains and gets picked up by the trough. We were very fortunate this thing got torn up by the Yucatan, dry air and shear. We could have had a Cat 5 160 mph TC smacking Houston per usual. No good at all. In the summer, here in south Texas I am a fully realized warminista. Its dry and plenty hot. I work outside in this stuff every day, too.

You are NO wannabe, George BM. You need to attend Met school STAT. We need your help. Weather will become more interesting with time. The high SSTs will not help.

Okay thundershowers entirely unrelated to Beryl dumped 2 inches on Buda today. Wind gusted to 25 mph at times. This now puts us at 30.2 inches for the year. Normal annual rainfall here is thirty inches. This area of rain looks like a kind of convergence zone, it is not moving but just keeps on redeveloping right on top of us, over a rather large area of south Texas right now. Austin and Houston are right in the thick of it.

Quick update. Don't look now but rain is developing over both Houston and the Austin regions.

Yes I should know better I will post with more care. Better yet, I will go take a walk for a bit.

I did not mean to appear to root for a TC to hit someplace. I will post with more care. I guess I wish for Beryl to be a weak tropical depression then bring beneficial rain to places that need it.

Okay. Agreed there. Areas west of I35 DO need rain badly.

Torch tiger I see you have awarded me a hot dog. Models all point to a Beryl LF much farther east. Beryl is very weak. The storm may redevelop but it will make LF much farther east. It is entirely possible Beryl will landfall in Houston on Tuesday afternoon-evening. If so, Buda will be hot and sunny. NWS says axis of heavy rain will be along and east of US highway 77, which is 70 plus miles east of Buda.. That is quite far east of Buda. That is well east of Bastrop. To say that I am relieved is a gross understatement. Storm is also moving fairly fast. Because of the track, I am now so far west, that I can reasonably expect mostly sunny skies and at least mid 90s temps. Hot dog me to your hearts content, but I am quite safe from Beryl in Buda. The track will be far enough to the east relative to my location, that I am assured hot humid dry conditions. I. REST. MY. CASE.

I am REALLY jumping the gun here. That said, I can't begin to express how relieved I am of Beryl going so far east. Buda will have hot weather and not a drop of rain and pleasant sunny skies. Beryl's remnants are moving right along.

Yep

Windspeed has a good explanation here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60838-tropical-storm-beryl-hurricane-watch-mouth-of-rio-to-sargent-texas/?do=findComment&comment=7344239

The storm is NE of guidance and models are trending north and east. This is one we gotta keep an eye on til it does LF. My wag is probably Houston.

I might take your advice.

True enough.

This Texas LF gets far enough east, Austin may be in the clear. That, looks increasingly likely. Very good news. This could even turn out to be a New Orleans LF. I can feel the incredible relief and rising joy, kind of like the way people felt when WWII was over!!!!!!!!

if it moves N along the coast, we may end up with some rain then it passes north and hopefully east of us at good speed, 100+ temps and sunshine can continue the normal July dry out and warmup on into August here.

Now we need to see how strong this gets after the Yucatan LF, then exactly where it makes its TX LF then how fast or slow it moves and the track over TX will determine rain amounts. I think we can handle 5 inches, but don't think we will see that much. Two inches would be fine. That would put us at 30 for the year. This is the latest disco from NWS for South Central Texas. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The surface boundary weakens and dissipates Saturday night into Sunday. Forcing wanes leading to showers and thunderstorms gradually ending. Seasonally hot temperatures are expected. As mentioned in previous discussions, focus then turns to Hurricane Beryl and its impacts on South Central Texas. It will move into a weakness in the Subtropical Ridge caused by an upper level trough over the Central States. The exact track and speed remain uncertain for early into middle of next week. Though it may enter an area of weaker flow aloft by mid week. In addition, a surface boundary sags south into Central Texas while a weak tropical wave (formerly Invest 96L) moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. Forcing by these features will generate areas of rain and showers with light to moderate instability allowing for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. PWs of 2 to 2.5+ inches and possible slower cell motions indicate a potential for efficient rainfall processes to allow for heavy rains, possible nighttime core rains. The heavy rains will likely be the main threat from Beryl. There remains a potential for strong winds, although this remains uncertain. This will depend on the amount of weakening based on the interaction with land after landfall along the northeastern Mexico or southern Texas coast. At a minimum, gusty winds seem possible in rain bands. Finally, depending on the track, there is a non-zero tornado threat along and east of its track. Any of the impacts are highly dependent on the track and strength of Beryl. It is too early to determine rainfall totals for our area, however there is a potential for multiple inches along and near its track. Due to the extensive clouds and areas of rain, temperatures, especially highs, will be below normal, possibly well below normal. Stay tuned for updates as this situation evolves.

We better hope this is only a tropical storm. Or a depression. And that this DOES NOT SLOW DOWN.

Okay, this could be good. Well east of us means real hot and dry and no wind!!!!! Wow man I am gonna throw a par-tay if this happens and we end up super dry and super hot! When a TC is east of us, that is what happens, we get awarded clear very hot weather with no wind. Might be downsloping effects, but hey, I am no Met. Now just wait a cotton-pickin minute. CREEPING up the coast? I thought this system was gonnabe a pretty progressive mover? Yeah folks, I realize I am really easy to troll.......

Okay, inland track is not your focus. I am just concerned that this thing will pull a gigantic Brobdingnagian plume and associated tropical rain band out of the GoMex onto Buda, those tropical showers can be ferociously efficient, it dont take much to smash us with 12 inches of rain in a very short time, TC's tracking southwest of our location can do that........... Anyway Benchmark, thank you very much for your analysis. You do an exemplary job!!!!

40/70 so your high LF risk means places like Austin are completely out of the woods, 100 degree weather, few puffy cumulus and maybe a few 14 mph gusts, 40 percent chance of rain ? I am no forecaster but hoping that Beryl will be so weak, and so far south, that I will get to have my beloved 105 weather with a blistering Texas sun and a 5 percent chance of a stray tropical shower and 10-15 mph winds. I would rather have an EXTREME, 25,000 YEAR DROUGHT, than have a doggone hurricane in Buda. In other words Get that doggone tropical system the heck out of south central Texas. Its July. Its supposed to be HOT, DRY, and blistering SUN.

This is extremely serious. Its a developing La Nina as well. WE are all in very grim deep trouble this summer and fall, all along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, possibly well up into the Northeast.

That, is not even funny. I do NOT want 6 feet of rain in Texas or Mexico. Thanks for trolling me, Boone lol. Hey, it worked!