Jebman

Enjoy it to the full!

In south central Texas, where I've now been living for nearly 3 years, it is usually very hot and humid but dry at this time of year. But this spring/summer down here has been anything but normal for us. Lawns are green.Usually they are brown and temps are routinely in the lower 100s. We have been in the upper 80s/lower 90s with mid 70s/upper 70s dewpoints and today we got smashed by a seabreeze storm, winds gusted to 55 mph, a branch got broke and I had to saw it up, by hand. The lawn is out of control and my mower is broken. This reminds me so much of northern Virginia that is is surreal. 000 FXUS64 KEWX 131923 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 .SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... Texas is under a col in the upper pattern with ridging to the east and west and a trough to the north. This weakness has allowed convection to develop on the seabreeze which is moving northward toward I-10. A line of thunderstorms extends from near Castroville to near Halletsville. This activity will continue to move toward the north through the rest of the afternoon and more storms could develop behind this line. There could be brief heavy rain and winds could gust up to 40 mph. We don`t expect much change tonight. Convection should die off quickly with the loss of daytime heating. Clouds will move back in overnight for another warm night. Wednesday will be very much like today. Convection will develop along the seabreeze and move into our CWA during the afternoon. Convection will be confined to the eastern half of the area where moisture will be deepest. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible. Storms will dissipate after sunset. Cloudy skies will keep temperatures warm again. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... The pattern to start the long term does not change much from the short term. South Central Texas will be stuck between the high that is keeping the Western US in furnace like conditions and a weak high pressure over the Eastern Gulf and Western Atlantic. This will continue the low rain chances across areas along and east of Interstate 35 each afternoon as the Gulf Moisture rich air interacts with the sun and the seabreeze. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some producing a brief heavy downpour or gusty wind up to 50 mph will continue to be possible each afternoon. Afternoon highs will be kept in the low 90s across much of the area, including the I-35 corridor, resulting in temperatures below seasonal normals. The exception will be across the Rio Grande Plains where afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s. A pattern change comes towards the end of the long term period as an upper trough digs across the Central and Eastern United States. Model solutions differ at this point with the GFS and Canadian cutting off a low pressure system across Oklahoma beyond the long term into the middle of next week. In response to the upper trough models are trying to bring yet another summer boundary down into Texas. The Canadian is most bullish with the front at this point along wit the ECMWF, while the GFS hangs it up north. Regardless of the exact evolution it looks like for Monday and into next week the pattern returns to a wetter one! You gotta be kiddin' me! We are having a hard time keeping up with this May-like pattern this "summer"! My garden has gone completely nonlinear, the cucumber vines are 13 feet long and I have more herbs than ever! The mint herbs are taking over! The cucumber vines are beginning to climb up to the roof! The lawn is already over a foot high in places! IN MID-JULY!

OK DD which one is best for the Mid Atlantic? I'll WILL that one to complete fruition, even overperform.

Now the dewpoint is 81 degrees. It's time for a jebwalk lol.

Right now in Buda, Texas, the dewpoint is a cool 80 degrees. We get a LOT of upper 70s dewpoints down here.

I pick BOTH, for the entire Mid Atlantic Region, this upcoming winter, 2021-2022.

The Intersnowy Period WILL END, in 2021-2022. The Jebman has spoken. The Snow Gods are smiling already on DC. Load up on shovels, blowers and ice melt and salt. You're gonna need a bigger plow!

I hope you all get tons of rain over the next couple days! I still remember how much rain Virginia gets!

Try replacing the filter. We did here, now the AC is freezing us pretty good lol

Not the hail, but we have been absolutely inundated with rain since at least late April down here in south central Texas! If this trans ridge weakness showing up on all the guidance hangs around, we could be talking 2007 all over again! I remember visiting Austin in summer 2007 and seeing 8 foot high weeds along some roadsides! We have been getting tons of storms and heavy rains and many cancelled outdoor games for weeks on end! This is NOT normal down here, not at all. Our gardens are putting out mass amounts of tomatoes, beans, peas, cucumbers, squash! We're having trouble keepin up with it! I saved and nurtured 63 tomato plant seedlings from our greenhouse. Now they are busting the cap and getting very big! Its a green forest out there and I am running out of large pots to put them in! The soils are completely saturated. If we should get hit by so much as a tropical depression from the Gom, it could be catastrophic.

We have had so much rain down here in south central Texas it is unbelievable! Garden has gone nonlinear! Buda has seen 16.5 inches of rain since early May! We have tomatoes, cucumbers and purple sweet peppers. The sweet green, orange, yellow and red peppers are soon to come. Got peas and beans too, they just appeared, and figs are beginning to grow on the fig tree! Lawn mower is busted. Grass is getting higher and higher and the east lawn is a deep hopeless quagmire. We're enjoying the cool 70s by day and rain because soon enough it will be 105 and blistering HOT.

Feed sacks are goin up too, though not by that much. Got miniature donkeys down here in Central TX. Plus a deer feeder.

I have a relative in the Green Mountains, I might get to spend next winter up there. I send you all pics, you are gonna hate me like ebola.

Which ski resort in Colorado or Wyoming typically gets the most snow in the March blockbuster blizzards? One day, I am gonna position myself in one of those ski resorts and get my fill of snow WITHOUT the responsibilities I faced on the ranch down here in south central Texas during the Frozentine Day After Tomorrow Event last month. I'll just jebwalk myself to death in a mammoth 6 foot blizzard with headphones blasting, all without a care in the snowy world!

Don, Your winter storms photos site is absolutely LEGENDARY!

Need a little help diggin' out? I could be up there in a day.

Might want to keep your eyes on the models. March 5-6 could be something else for the Mid Atlantic Region. Dont put the shovels and snowblowers away just yet! I think you guys are gonna get shellacked by heavy snow!

NICE STORM! If that is sleet, you can expect it to compact and transform into a glacier. Then you'll be forced to walk like a penguin, or else slide around on it like a lemming as you try to descend hills. I remember 1994 all too well. Those ice mountains in front of the cars, will have to be picked thru with a pick the hard way by tomorrow morning. You could also use a Jebman Shovel........

This has been one interesting week or so. We hit 6 for a low one night. We had highs in the upper teens one day. We got a third of an inch of ice yesterday. We got 6.5 inches snow Sunday night. We got an inch and a half of snow today. Our normal snow here is three quarters of an inch of snow in an entire season. There are still snowpacked roads down here. Everything froze last night real hard and the driveway turned to ice. We have frozen pipes too, have to get water from a neighbor. It has really been intriguing. I never expected all this snow and ice down here. Its surreal. The park where I watch soccer games all the time, now has 2 foot snowdrifts and icicles hanging off the benches where I cheer all the soccer goals! What has been causing all this down here? Is it the polar vortex of doom? Lol

Lol I might have to visit some time.

27 degrees with moderate to heavy snow here. Big big aggregates! Picked up another inch on top of the ice on the old snowpack. That's 9.5 inches snow on the season which puts us at something like ~ 1600 percent of normal.

Congrats to you all in the Mid Atlantic! You have a decent Winter Storm Warning! You're gonna get at least 6 inches of snow! I got smacked last night with another third of an inch of solid ice! More ZR, sleet and snow on the way here tonight, tomorrow! lol You'd never know where I am is in south central Texas, not with all the snow and ice and winter storms!

I just saw your forecast! I hope you guys get so shellacked by torrential snows that you cant even get out of your house for a week! (Without the power outages, of course) Where I am, its 23 degrees with a 19 degree dewpoint and freezing rain is about to begin. Its just winter storm after winter storm down here. After we get shut down by ice, its coming for the Mid Atlantic next!

I hope you get a decent thump of snow!

Its 26 degrees with a 16 degree dewpoint as even MORE ZR gets ready to unload in South central Texas. Roads are snowpacked. I really do not think I will be doing any jebwalking tonight.