Jebman

The entire Mid Atlantic is gonna get buried ALIVE in deep snow this upcoming winter! Its gonna be very cold too! Throw about twenty more logs on that fire!

Give up the ghost, Reaper. You're never gonna EVER get the Jebman. You are the Eternal Reaper. I, on the other hand, am the Eternal Optimist. I say The Mid Atlantic is gonna get deep snow and Vodka Cold this autumn and winter and that YOU are gonna Jump, out of sheer frustration lmao. You're gonna need to bring your A++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Game. If you can.

Wow - N Virginia is gonna get hit yet AGAIN by lots of rain the week into the weekend! You all must be busy mowing your lawns a lot!

Three months from now, Mid Atlantic. Only three short months from now, its going to be getting COLD in the Washington DC Metropolitan Region. You are all gonna be looking at a massive snow winter. Pro Tip: Get stocked up on Jebman Shovels NOW. Get ice melter, tons of sand. Stockpiling sand is very fun because shoveling the stuff is very much like digging snow after a 2 foot HECS in the DC Region. Get top shelf snowmobiles and snow blowers. Get all set right now, because in 3-4 months, you're gonna need em. You're gonna need a bigger snowplow.

Okay folks, I am no warminista. I still love winter and deep snow and Vodka cold jebwalks even tho I now live in the Deep South lol! With that said, August down here in South Central Texas is SUPPOSED to be burning hot with zero clouds and a nice hot blue sky. This August thus far, I feel that I have been cheated of a really warm enjoyable summer replete with numerous Texas heatwaves consisting of multiple periods of days of 103 degree heat. There have also been numerous cumulus clouds depriving me of the healthful direct Texas sunlight even as I happily enjoy all of my outdoor tasks! This is not the way August is supposed to be down here near Austin. August is supposed to be devoid of any rain, clear hot blue skies and plenty of 75 degree dewpoints. We usually get treated to lots of hot weather all thru September too! Our growing season is to die for! I think it starts in March and runs to early December! Here's hoping for a monster 635 dm Saharan anticyclone here in the great state of Texas and decent hot weather, maybe a week or two around 106 degrees and lows near 90! I'd be outside in it at 3pm in the warmest part of the day happily working pretty hard and drinking water like a hot horse! Sure we dont get much snow down here but there are other things to like!

Was expecting 15 mph gusts this afternoon from Hanna. Got hit by a squall this afternoon, winds gusted unexpectedly to over 40 mph, blew stuff all over. Picked up a half inch of rain, more than I expected.

Hanna is moving south southwest. Not much to see near Austin TX. 15 mph wind, chance of an inch of rain. Deep South Texas will have all the fun, tropical storm force wind gusts and 8 inches of rain. Move along, move along, not much to see here. But in the Corpus Christi region, different story: 000 FXUS64 KCRP 251210 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 710 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 .DISCUSSION... See 12z TAF discussion below. && .AVIATION... Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate at area terminals today due to Hanna`s approach and eventual landfall along the mid/south TX coast. Will indicate tropical storm force winds at CRP and ALI airports given the forecast track of Hanna to the south of these areas. However, gusts to hurricane force are still possible! Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to spread in from the coast which will reduce visitibilities to IFR conditions. Expect heavy rain to continue along the coast through the night with improving conditions across the northeast Coastal Bend Tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 611 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)... Tropical Storm Hanna continues to approach the CRP MSA early this morning. Convection on the west and north sides have increased quite a bit overnight. Satellite representation has also been very impressive overnight with bubbling convection around the center of circulation. Hurricane models (HWRF and HMON specifically) continue to be very aggressive with intensifying the system as it moves toward the coast this morning. These two models are significantly higher than all other guidance out there. Track guidance has become fairly well in agreement with variations of only about a county. Current forecast cone indicates landfall potential between Corpus Christi and Port Mansfield with timing generally expected this afternoon. Rainfall continues to be a major concern across much of South Texas. Southeastern areas near where the storm moves inland are expected to see 5 to 10 inches. With increasing convection to the north of the storm center, we will still see 3 to 5 inches over the northern Coastal Bend and 2 to 4 inches as you go north and west. Moderate coastal flooding is expected across the Middle Texas coast as the storm moves in with Storm Surge warnings in place. Once the storm moves inland it will gradually dissipate but at least Tropical storm force winds will likely reach well inland before it weakens to a depression Sunday. LONG TERM... The same high pressure ridge that is Steering Hanna into South and Deep South Texas will continue to steer moisture and unsettled weather into South Texas through early in the week. High end chance PoPs continue through Wednesday before decreasing late week as the ridge shifts eastward and mid-level troughing deepens through the central part of the country. Temperatures through the first part of the period will be below normal due to TS Hanna, and the increased moisture...then warm back to near normal by late in the week. MARINE... Convection on the western side of TS Hanna has increase through the Middle Texas Coastal waters overnight as the storm approaches the CRP MSA. Hanna will progress west or west southwestward through the area this morning with a landfall expected this afternoon. Tropical storm to hurricane force winds are expected throughout the area with very high seas. Wave heights at the 19 buoy north of the area have already surpassed 20 feet this morning. Expect wave heights of 15 to 20 feet area wide today. Torrential downpours will occur, especially in rain bands and eventually any potential eyewall of the storm. Rain chances continue through the middle of the week as unsettled weather persists. Winds will decrease to moderate levels by Monday and persist at light to moderate levels through the end of the period. Rain chances decrease late in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 83 79 84 76 87 / 100 100 80 60 50 Victoria 85 77 85 75 89 / 90 80 80 50 70 Laredo 93 76 83 76 88 / 80 90 80 50 70 Alice 83 77 83 75 89 / 100 100 70 50 60 Rockport 83 80 84 79 85 / 100 90 80 70 60 Cotulla 93 77 87 75 90 / 70 70 80 40 60 Kingsville 83 78 83 76 88 / 100 100 80 60 50 Navy Corpus 83 80 84 79 86 / 100 100 80 60 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Warning For the following zones: Aransas Islands... Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Kleberg... Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio... Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval... Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces... Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg Islands...Live Oak...Nueces Islands...Victoria. Tropical Storm Warning For the following zones: Bee...Coastal Calhoun...Duval...Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland Refugio...Live Oak...Victoria. GM...Hurricane Warning For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ JM/75...AVIATION Wish I could see it! Anyone for a tropical storm chase?

.CLIMATE... Aside from the one day last week that broke the streak of consecutive 90+ F days at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA), every day this month has had a high of at least 90 F. As of Tuesday afternoon, that total (for July) was up to 20 days. The most 90+ F days ever in any month in the immediate Washington, DC, area is 25 days (set in July 2011). Looking at the pattern over the next 7 days, as well as probabilities for above normal temperatures from our colleagues at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) out to 14 days, it seems it will be very difficult to NOT break that record. For the Baltimore, Maryland, and Sterling-Dulles, Virginia, areas, the record most 90+ F days in a month is 24 days (also set in July 2011). As of Tuesday afternoon, the Baltimore area had hit 90 F 17 times so far this month, and the Sterling/Dulles Virginia area had hit 90 F 15 days. Temperature records have been kept at what is now KDCA since 1941. The official temperature records for the immediate Washington, DC, area consist of data from KDCA starting in 1945, and observations taken in downtown Washington, DC, extend the region`s period of record back to 1872. Temperature records for the Baltimore, Maryland, area have been kept at what is now Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (KBWI) since 1950. Additional temperature records observed in downtown Baltimore extend the period of record back to 1872. Temperature records for the Sterling-Dulles, Virginia, area have been kept at what is now Washington Dulles International Airport (KIAD) since 1960. All climate data are considered preliminary until reviewed by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). && https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off The Washington Metropolitan Region looks to get a good deal more rain in the next few days.

Congratulations Dale City on a 101 degree reading today! You got us beat here in Central Texas, as we only managed to hit 97 this afternoon.

Tomorrow, many of you along the I 95 Corridor will experience high temperatures near 100 degrees. Heat indices will be as high as 109 degrees. This is dangerous heat for the DC Metropolitan Region. Stay cool, drink lots of water. Take frequent breaks in the shade. I know. I used to live up there. I live in south central Texas. This stuff is normal, routine for us down here, especially in August. I have found that I like to work outside in the sun, on the ranch, if you can believe that. I love digging trenches out there, its exciting to watch the dust get blown around as I work out there nearly every day. I take a lot of breaks in the shade and drink tons of water. Its not a bad time to hit the beaches.

THIS winter the Cryosphere WILL be apocalyptic, what with wildfires and 100 degree days up in Siberia in June. EVERYONE from Atlanta to N Maine will get buried alive in deep snow this winter.

That would equate to a heat index of 119 degrees. I dont think I want to be out working in that.

Mom and her late husband have a few acres down here. I have kind of fallen in love with this place. I love carrying big cedar poles, 80 lb sacks of quickcrete, 40 lb sacks of mulch and 50 lb sacks of gravel in the Texas heat, with the sun nice and high in that Texas sky! This isnt hell at all, this is PURE HEAVEN! I think I like being a ranch hand, lol. It kind of grew on me! Forecasters say this is a historic heat dome, they say it will go on for weeks. Its gonna hit the Mid Atlantic too. Some forecasters down here say we might exceed record heat for Austin. You know what the all time record for Austin is? Its about 112 degrees, lol. Thats AMBIENT temp, not heat index.

It is down here in central TX, JakkelWx. I am no warminista, but I am having the time of my life in the triple digit heat enjoying luggin 50 lb sacks of gravel all over our ranch south of Austin! Today we get to enjoy 102 degrees, while on Monday it will top out at a toasty 106. Ditto for Monday and Tuesday. Ridge is somewhere between the 99th percentile and outright record territory, at near 600 dcm. We will get to enjoy these kinds of summertime heat anticyclones many times during this high sun season! I never in my wildest dreams, ever imagined I would ever have this much fun down here in the Deep South (or in the Deep Southwest) smack in the middle of July!

We hit 100 today and yesterday here in Central TX. Last night the low was 80. This weekend is going to be HOT, 103, but next week is supposed to be EVEN HOTTER!

Wow if that EVER happened again! Just wow! I would probably try to shovel out Rt 1626 all by myself lmao

You got me beat in Buda - we ONLY hit 96 degrees here. Lol

Really pleasant weather down here in Buda TX! I was really enjoying it as I worked on the flowerbeds, hauling mulch all over the place, plenty of sunshine, few puffy cumulus with 96 degrees and 77 degree dewpoints! That heat index was something else! 110 degrees! We get decent summers down here, and it is only getting started!

Might need one of those, got a lot of grass growing down here with all this rain.

There's this thin line over us today, 69 cool degrees with a nice rain falling, and even MORE on the way later today/tonight! Been lovin this! We got 3 inches of rain last night. Thats 10.5 inches on the month lol.

This squall line was supposed to move through at 9pm. It did move thru, then it just kind of stopped. The entire thing is just undulating in place, its like it just decided to quarantine in Central Texas and the rain just wont quit. Its hardly moving at all. The returns are yellow but now I see oranges and even reds developing. I read something about a Wake Low in the AFD. Well, I bitched all day about East Texas hogging all of the rain while I roasted in 94 degree sunshine. I got my rain, all right. In spades.

I have now been living in South Central Texas, specifically in Buda, Texas, for nearly 2 years. The anniversary is Aug 26. This place is like California. We dont have much weather. It just stays hot, except in "winter" when it is less hot. lol Here, because we dont have much weather, I have now taken to sports as an official obsession, I mean I am now obsessed with ALL sports, in lieu of weather. But this upcoming Memorial Day weekend and throughout the following week and possibly BEYOND!!!!!!, will likely be a very rare exception. The following excerpt is why I think this may be so: .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... By Saturday evening, the large scale pattern will consist of a slow- moving Four Corners trough and a secondary upper level disturbance near the western Great Lakes within the amplifying mean east CONUS ridging. The humid, soupy airmass already in place with dew points mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s is expected to persist until around Tuesday at least. By that time, the Four Corners trough will have reached the TX panhandle and cut off from the mean flow. It`s not expected to exit our region for several days after that, perhaps influencing our weather through the following weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms every day through the long term period and maybe even beyond. The reason for this stalling of the upper low is a rather anomalous trough-ridge-trough-ridge-trough pattern stretching from the EPac to the W Atlantic that will spend several days completely disconnected from the upper level jet near the US/Canadian border. If this comes even close to verifying, I will be as excited as I would have been in Dale City in January for a 36 inch snowstorm! We have already seen 7.5 inches of rain this May. Nine to ten days ago last Tuesday, we got treated to a 6 inch rain extravaganza that was not even predicted! Storms trained over us for three to four hours then it rained for another four hours at much lower rates. If we can get trained over by repetitive efficient rain producers, I will be very very elated indeed! I might even have to go out on an extended jebwalk! We already have pretty wet ground here! This could end up being most enjoyable indeed! I. LOVE. FLOODS. WITH. ALL. MY. HEART!

This upcoming winter, the Winter of 2020 - 2021, will be very different from a Nina perspective. It will play out more like a moderate Nino. Washington DC will definitely get much more snow than last winter. At this time - It looks like 25- 35 inches on the season. It probably will go up as we progress towards October.

I've heard talk of a rare Double Omega Block forming over the North American Conus by next week. If this is realized, wouldnt that place Texas in a trough that would in effect be very stable meridionally? Meaning, it wouldnt move much? We might end up getting TN/West Va/ SW Virginia'd lmao! I was laughing at the Mid Atlantic getting bedeviled by a pesky upper level low lol.

I wish i was in SW Va right now! Wow all the rain! That upper level low aint movin one little bit! I'd be out on an extended rain jebwalk! Check out this AFD!!!!! https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=RNK&issuedby=RNK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off