Jebman

Not sure if this has already been posted. Mods feel free to knock it down, but just HAD to post it - https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LIX&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .SHORT TERM...All eyes on Ida. Ida continues to strengthen through the day and the 4pm advisory now has Ida at 105 mph with a minimum central pressure of 976mb. Ida is forecast to still become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane and could strengthen all the way up to landfall which is now expected by midday/early afternoon tomorrow. If you have not finished your preparations yet FINISH THEM NOW! If you are under a mandatory evacuation...LEAVE NOW! You do not want to play around with your life and it is not worth it to stay if you have the means to leave. Ida is moving to the northwest around a ridge centered over the Atlantic coast around SC/NC. This has provided a very well defined steering current leading Ida directly towards the north-central Gulf. Ida has been gaining strength through the day and the presentation on satellite is very ominous. A few very concerning observations. Ida still hasn`t really rapidly intensified yet, and the thinking is it still will and that now means that it could be strengthening up to or just before making landfall. Even though that hasn`t occurred it is already stronger than what the guidance was initially expecting and it has been a slow increase. Ida is going to continue to strengthen for at least the next 12-18 hours. There is no dry air around, upper level outflow is quite impressive, and Ida will move over the warmest and deepest part of the Gulf. This is all very conducive for strengthening. What this can mean is that there may not be time for an eye wall replacement cycle to get started which would lead to some slight weakening but as mentioned already it could be strengthening up to landfall. The track has been sliding just a touch east of the forecast and this is leading to some greater concerns with respect to surge in some areas and rainfall potential in areas that just can not handle heavy rain. First any more adjustments east will cause surge to become a greater problem along the east facing shores of Louisiana. The current track is going to bring UNSURVIVABLE surge up Barataria and Terrebonne Bays. Much of coastal LA is just marsh so this surge will penetrate well inland and unless you are within the Hurricane Risk Reduction System you are putting your life in danger and do not expect to receive any help if you are caught and cut off. This includes both west and east of the mouth of the MS River in SELA. Outside of those areas life threatening storm surge is expected to occur in the tidal lakes and coastal MS. Lake Pontchartrain could see 6 to 8 feet of surge and possibly even higher in the northwestern sections of the lake around Tangipahoa Parish and western St Tammany parish. Coastal MS especially west of Ocean Springs could see up to 11ft. Locations that typically have tidal issues in Hancock county should leave now as storm surge will be extremely dangerous. Winds will be dangerous to destructive through our entire CWA. The most destructive winds will occur along the coast of Louisiana where devastating structural damage could occur as winds are expected to gust over 160 mph! This will severely damage to destroy most structures that are not well built. Locations around New Orleans could see winds that are far stronger than what was experienced last year during Hurricane Zeta with much of the area likely seeing winds gusts in excess of 100 mph. If there is any more of a jog east these winds will be even higher. Winds funneling through some of the high rises will be even stronger. Around Baton Rouge we could see wind damage that far eclipses what was seen during Hurricane Gustav. Winds gusts over 110 mph are possible that far inland. This will lead to widespread tree damage, structural damage, and massive power outages which could take weeks to restore. Across southwest MS winds will remain very strong likely gusting over hurricane force around Wilkinson County and gusting to near hurricane force as far east as McComb. Northshore areas, especially along the lake could see wind gusts over hurricane force with widespread tree damage and power outages. Coastal MS likely to see winds gusts over 60 mph at times which could still lead to damage and widespread power outages. The other life threatening concern is heavy rain. This is two fold though because of where it could fall combining that with the surge in the lake and along the coast. We are anticipating a band of very heavy rain that could be 15 to 20 inches and possibly higher. If this falls over the city of New Orleans it will overwhelm the pumps with extremely dangerous flash flooding possible. At the same time winds could be dangerous and this would prevent people from trying to find higher ground. Other areas of major concern is along and north of I-12. This is the area where we have many rivers that are quick to respond, Amite/Comite, Tickfaw, Tangipahoa, Bogue Chitto, and across the MS border in coastal MS we have the the Hobolochittos and Wolf. All of these rivers and a few more respond rather quickly to heavy rain and the combine with the problem of surge into the lake and along coastal MS. The surge will push up these rivers and the rain will have no where to go and quickly lead to dangerous flash flooding conditions. Combine the possibility of debris clogging up other areas of drainage and widespread life threatening flash flooding is possible. Please if you live in a flood prone area highly consider leaving. If this rain falls directly over you the drainage and rivers could be overwhelmed quickly and you could be cut off with rising water.

I am really hoping and praying we dont end up with a 1921-like hurricane season in central Texas. Sept 7 thru 11 that year, Austin got drowned by 15 plus inches of rain from a hurricane. We are already approaching 40 inches of rain so far this year, in a place that usually barely ekes out 30 inches in a year.

Got clobbered yet again here in south central Texas, 2 more inches, sitting at 39 inches for the year, 6.5 inches for August. We are WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY above normal now lol. Gardens are goin wild lol. Got lots and lots of fresh rainwater in huge buckets all ready to go. Just when we thought it was dryin' up..........NOPE

Could be active in the Gulf this season. Lets just hope they all hit the E GOM. Central TX is already pushing 40 inches on the year. We really dont need another Allison lol. Or Harvey. Especially over Austin.

In this particular case, I think he will be correct. East Coast will get smashed by numerous major hurricanes. I think Florida and the Outer Banks are going to get utterly demolished, especially Miami. It is going to be very concerning the number of rapidly intensifying tropical entities that will smash into FL this season.

Larry Cosgrove thinks East Coast will get hit by hurricanes this summer/fall.

Hope you feel much better soon! Hit the vitamin C, D and A. Drink as much water as you can and have chicken soup as hot as you can stand it with as much pepper as you can stand. Get lots of rest. It'll go away fast. Drink a lot of orange juice too.

Soil moisture is so high down here! Dewpoint is 81 degrees, but ambient temp is only 82!!!! Average high is 99. We got another third of an inch yesterday. That brings us to 4.5 inches just this month! Just wow wow wow wow! My tomato plant is growing vines all over and the watermelon vine is getting all over the place! This much rain most of the spring and all summer is definitely very very abnormal for us. The lawn is emerald green. It should be brown and dusty. Dewpoint is 81 degrees, I think this would be a very good time for a jebwalk!

Absolutely resplendent! Couldnt ask for better weather, unless it was 5 degrees with thick clouds and 9 inch an hour snow rates!

Wow 55 for a low! We'd find that very chilly! Today our dewpoint was 77 again and we got a total of 4.2 inches rain which brings us to a yearly total so far of 36.5 inches. This is unbelievable for us! Normal for this time of year might be about 19 inches.

What a very anomalous summer down here! MORE heavy rain tonight, we just started off August with 2.8 inches of fresh rain! Normal high is 99. Naaah, all we eked out, was 94. Power went out for 2 hours as dangerous cloud to ground lightning smashed down all over at 1245am local time Aug 2. More rain likely Monday and rest of week. All this rain is abnormal. Aug is average high of 99 low of 74 with clear blue skies and hot, dry, dusty. Not this summer. Lots rain. Struggling with the lawn and the cucumber vines are growing about 4 inches per day. I am having a hard time keeping them tied to the stake, which is already too damned short and has had to be lengthened. Same goes for the tomato stakes. You guys want rain? Come on down to south central Texas. We are already up to 35 inches on the year. 30 inches is normal for an entire year.

Florida and Texas will probably see a few hurricanes this season. I'm not concerned at all because I live too far inland. Hurricanes rarely even get close to Austin. I'm safe. I am so happy I dont live in Miami!

I am completely bummed out. I just might drink myself to death over this. Ledecky got beat by Titmus in the Womens 400 meter freestyle at the Tokyo Olympics. Titmus beat her before, at the 2019 FINA World Championships in Guangju, in the same event. Titmus is a come from behind racer. Her coach acted like a totally crazy man after Titmus won the gold. I am just DEVASTATED.

This snow pic now graces my laptop screen. Thanks.

OK I will WILL the January storm to happen again, only this time it will have more snow and stall out for a week.

You guys are gonna get buried ALIVE by lots of snow this winter in the DC Metro Region! I know it. You know it. Stock up NOW on ice melter, snow blowers, Jebman shovels and beer.

I hope you have a very very good time! Maybe you should try chasing storms, or have fun at the northeastern ski resorts come winter! Or both lol!

We got two more inches of rain down here today, from a JULY COLD FRONT!. We are not supposed to get cold fronts down here in July! We have had 32.3 inches of rain so far this year. We are above average for this region and especially for our summer climatology. Temps have been milder than usual too, only in the low 90s with dewpoints averaging in the mid to upper 70s. The garden is really growing, some of my cucumber vines are growing 3 inches a day! This is turning into a very very unusually WET summer for central Texas!

Where has the time gone lol.

Love it!

Enjoy it to the full!

In south central Texas, where I've now been living for nearly 3 years, it is usually very hot and humid but dry at this time of year. But this spring/summer down here has been anything but normal for us. Lawns are green.Usually they are brown and temps are routinely in the lower 100s. We have been in the upper 80s/lower 90s with mid 70s/upper 70s dewpoints and today we got smashed by a seabreeze storm, winds gusted to 55 mph, a branch got broke and I had to saw it up, by hand. The lawn is out of control and my mower is broken. This reminds me so much of northern Virginia that is is surreal. 000 FXUS64 KEWX 131923 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 .SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... Texas is under a col in the upper pattern with ridging to the east and west and a trough to the north. This weakness has allowed convection to develop on the seabreeze which is moving northward toward I-10. A line of thunderstorms extends from near Castroville to near Halletsville. This activity will continue to move toward the north through the rest of the afternoon and more storms could develop behind this line. There could be brief heavy rain and winds could gust up to 40 mph. We don`t expect much change tonight. Convection should die off quickly with the loss of daytime heating. Clouds will move back in overnight for another warm night. Wednesday will be very much like today. Convection will develop along the seabreeze and move into our CWA during the afternoon. Convection will be confined to the eastern half of the area where moisture will be deepest. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible. Storms will dissipate after sunset. Cloudy skies will keep temperatures warm again. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... The pattern to start the long term does not change much from the short term. South Central Texas will be stuck between the high that is keeping the Western US in furnace like conditions and a weak high pressure over the Eastern Gulf and Western Atlantic. This will continue the low rain chances across areas along and east of Interstate 35 each afternoon as the Gulf Moisture rich air interacts with the sun and the seabreeze. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some producing a brief heavy downpour or gusty wind up to 50 mph will continue to be possible each afternoon. Afternoon highs will be kept in the low 90s across much of the area, including the I-35 corridor, resulting in temperatures below seasonal normals. The exception will be across the Rio Grande Plains where afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s. A pattern change comes towards the end of the long term period as an upper trough digs across the Central and Eastern United States. Model solutions differ at this point with the GFS and Canadian cutting off a low pressure system across Oklahoma beyond the long term into the middle of next week. In response to the upper trough models are trying to bring yet another summer boundary down into Texas. The Canadian is most bullish with the front at this point along wit the ECMWF, while the GFS hangs it up north. Regardless of the exact evolution it looks like for Monday and into next week the pattern returns to a wetter one! You gotta be kiddin' me! We are having a hard time keeping up with this May-like pattern this "summer"! My garden has gone completely nonlinear, the cucumber vines are 13 feet long and I have more herbs than ever! The mint herbs are taking over! The cucumber vines are beginning to climb up to the roof! The lawn is already over a foot high in places! IN MID-JULY!

OK DD which one is best for the Mid Atlantic? I'll WILL that one to complete fruition, even overperform.

Now the dewpoint is 81 degrees. It's time for a jebwalk lol.

Right now in Buda, Texas, the dewpoint is a cool 80 degrees. We get a LOT of upper 70s dewpoints down here.