Jebman

You guys are nearly 17-20 degrees above average. You will get a lot of rain soon, too, rain that will entirely miss us. Boston's normal temps are 55/41. You know what they hit today? 84/57!!!!! With a 60 dewpoint! THIRTY DEGREES above normal! This is going to be a record hot summer and year overall. Texas is in exceptional drought already. It's going to be BAD, but not for the Mid Atlantic. You guys will be normal hot, with good rains. You may even get above normal rain for the summer, followed by several hurricanes smashing into the Ches Bay, George BM-style, and some TC's will have torrential rains that will repeatedly demolish your back yards this fall. Strap yourslefs in tight! Gonna be livin' in Interesting Times over there! Don't even get me started about the 2025-2026 Winter. Lots precip, lots cold. Buy shovels, blowers, salt. It's gonnabe a good one!

Look what I found deep in my Archives from waaaay back in 2007! This is my old sig at EUSWX, LOL I moved my EUSWX sig here at 1253am Feb 28 2007. Using the GFS for guidance based on secondary coastal low formation is like entering a one-legged man in an asskicking contest. This storm is just now coming into the Nam's range, therefore that is the direction I will lean until I start seeing some consistency (if ever). TexasRattler To get a sense of what accumulated sleet looks like, imagine a big ole pile of tiny little translucent plastic beads. If you put your hands out and shove some of it away, most of it comes right back at you. As I was shoveling the accumulated sleet, I could run the shovel through the pile horizontally, and it would cut a swath and just fill back in. It was pretty cool, actually. Never seen anything quite like it. Wet snow will push away because it's "sticky". Cold, dry snow will push away because it's so light. But this stuff, like someone said, is kind of like sand, it has "heft" to it. But think of very, very dry sand. ChantillyWx Nah you'll be just as pissed off when the next miss happens in your BY. I've been in several feet of LES and still was po'd a week later when the same areas got rain. Snow addiction is snow addiction and it doesn't get slaked. Its not like eating too much and feeling so sick you eat lightly for 10 days. As soon as you're home, you'll have the Jones. weathafella I honestly think this will change most of us forever. We are of an ilk who hunt 4" snows with a passion. Kinda like a college basketball nut who gets front row seats to the National Championship game and his team wins. I think we will become comfortably numb. WEATHER53 What sucks is the warministas got first round draft picks leaving us without a good blocking defense. MerquryMan Wow! That's taking benchmark to a whole new level! Ytterbium Feb 25 Snowstorm: 6 inches!! Hell Yeah, Baby!! Winter 2006-2007 Snow Totals: 11.5 inches!!! Sig was last updated 221pm Feb 25 2007. Here is yet another version of it. Some of the links go to some really cool weather websites! This is my Spring 2007 sig. I decided to store it here just before I begin another gradual modification of it tonight (645pm June 23 2007). Please Register for the Eastern US Weather Conference III!! Read The Conference FAQ, you slackers! To paraphrase Darth Vader, their failure is now complete. aslkahuna Hmmmm, you've never been in Yuma during a Summer Gulf surge if you think a 20 degree increase in dewpoint in 6 hours is fast. aslkahuna You can't have too much information, unless you are listening to Paris Hilton talking about why she shouldn't go to jail. Crustyoldbloke FHU wins the "how fast can the dewpoint increase" award tonight as the dewpoint jumped from 23F to 43F in 8 minutes. aslkahuna Feb 25 Snowstorm: 6 inches!! Hell Yeah, Baby!! Mar 7 Clipper: 2.5 inches!! Mar 16 Storm: 2.5 " Rain, then 1 inch of Snow!! April 7 Snow: 1.5 inches!!! WOO-HOO!!! April 15-16 Nor'easter: 3 inches Rain, 25-35mph winds, Gusts to 55!!! Winter 2006-2007 Snow Totals: 16.5 inches!!! Check out my Sig Page. EUSWX's Weenie Phrazes! Jay Peak Resort | Jay & Erica's SKI PAGE! | Ray's Winter Storm Archive | Don Sutherland's Digital Snow Museum | Beau Dodson Weather Photography | Phillip Forsyth's Albums from 2003 to 2007! | Jonathan Jessup's Nature Photos! | Glacier Nat'l Park Snow Plowing | ASLKAHUNA's Website! | Brett Roberts' Sky in Motion! HOKIE SPIRIT WILL NEVER DIE!! Always Free. Always Reliable. Easternuswx.com One Proud. Eastern. Loyalist. To the Bitter End!! HELL YEAH!!! Sig was last updated 520pm June 21, 2007.

You won't. Mid Atlantic will have good rains this summer, but if you don't like dry, best to stay FAR from south central Texas. Its a Nina, and we are dry as a popcorn fart and getting into the 90s already!

Look what I found in my ancient 2010 SciWx Archives!

Wow that has got to be the latest snow ever in that region! I am Jealous!

People called me crazy all my life. I was always getting weather readings during storms, especially snowstorm. On to the next one! Keep on keeping on!

Bring on the Spring!

There is NEVER enough snow.

He's coming back for the last big snow HECS this month before spring sets in for good.

I am hugging the Euro. 3 plus inches for Dale City!!! WOOT!

You guys have a nice weather system shaping up back East. You SHOULD be tracking it!

It's Mount Bachelor again folks! Dumping heavy wet snow again! Lady who cleaned off the snowboard earlier today, wow careless as hell! Damn near broke the ruler off the snowboard! Just threw it back on the snowpack, didnt even care a flip!

I have been going thru my scienceweather archives back in 2009. I found it! The Ski VT email detailing the ridiculous powder day when snorkels were mandatory! I LOVE SNOW LIKE THIS! https://list.uvm.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0201D&L=skivt-l&P=R11466 [email protected] Options: Use Monospaced Font Show Text Part by Default Show All Mail Headers Message: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>] Topic: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>] Author: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>] Subject: Lost Trail Powder Mountain, MT 20JAN02 & 21JAN02 (3 Images) From: Jay Silveira <[log in to unmask]> Reply To: Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]> Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 03:54:00 -0500 Content-Type: text/plain Parts/Attachments: text/plain (145 lines) Sunday As advertised, the big storm came in from the Pacific and Lost Trail reported another 12 inches of new snow on top of the foot they had already received in the past couple of days. The powder was getting serious. E and I joined some friends from the lab and got right to work on Thunder, a steep trail under lift 2. The latest round of snow had fallen really light, around 5% H2O, and it hardly slowed you down at all. We enjoyed a few runs down Thunder until it got pretty tracked up, then we headed into the trees. With the help of friends, we were also introduced to a secret meadow that lies between two trails and offers up some steep powder shots. We’ve been slowly learning the local tree stashes, and today found a few new ones that delivered some great deep powder. In the afternoon, when the others had left, E and I found an exceptionally tasty one to the right of Thunder and had it to ourselves for the rest of the day. Monday, MLK Day Hmmm, this snow is too deep to ski through, I’ll just use this track left by someone else and hustle my way over to the edge of Thunder. Ahh, now we’re moving, this should be fun, can’t wait to see what this powder is like… oh, hey that shot hit me in the face, gasp, gotta get that out of my mouth, cough, ack another, oh god, oh god, this snow is amazing, gasp, but I can’t breathe, this is too good to stop, choke, but I think I’m going to die, oh man do I need air this isn’t funny, this isn’t funny at all, I REALLY need to stop… Derek and I had just scared ourselves half to death. We’d dropped into Thunder and nearly suffocated on snow. After 10 turns, I stopped, gasping for breath, and looked to my left to see that Derek had done exactly the same thing. We were both scared as hell. “Oh my God I couldn’t breathe, I didn’t know what to do, I had to stop!” Derek looked over at me and acknowledged that he was in exactly the same state of affairs. Once the adrenaline surge began to fade, we came to our senses and began to realize what was going on. This was not simply another average powder day. This was a, “Dammit, I know people are always joking about snorkels but I wish I had one right now just so I could breathe” day. As if the two feet we already had weren’t enough, another 18-20 inches had come down overnight and the maelstrom dragged on at an inch and hour right before our eyes. We gathered our thoughts and decided to time our breathing as we skied. It didn’t work. Even on the upstroke of a turn, the snow lingered in the air and left us gagging and coughing, the snow building up in our mouths until we just had to stop and breathe. I never thought I’d see the day when too much snow made the skiing LESS fun. I’d had big powder days back home in Vermont, days when face shots were everywhere, days when I’d get a few mouthfuls of snow and have to spit it out to get breathing again at the next sign of light. But never had I had difficulty like this. I remember the day that Dave called me from Bolton and said that they had been nailed with over 2 feet of champagne powder overnight, he explained how all the instructors were going nuts and you had to time your breathing. I couldn’t go up though because I was in the middle of an experiment at work, but I thought I had imagined correctly what he was going through. I hadn’t. It didn’t matter how we turned or how we tried to time our breathing, it was an all-out choke fest. We worked our way down the rest of the run trying to enjoy the amazing conditions the best we could, but hampered by the snow all the same. In the end, we found a simple solution. Since we didn’t have neck gaiters, we used the lower front portions of our hoods to cover up our mouths while we skied. This worked like a charm, and from then on all we had to do was focus on powder bliss. That morning, we spent a lot of time in the white room. After a couple of runs down Thunder, it started to get a bit tracked up, so we headed over to Moose Creek, a region just at the edge of the ski area which is not patrolled, but highly used. Derek knew a nice entrance through some trees that would maximize our vertical and steepness in Moose Creek, just what we needed with this snow. Through a combination of untracked snow from the previous couple of feet that fell, and protection from the wind, we found ourselves atop the 35 degree pitch into Moose Creek standing in thigh to waist deep snow. This was going to be absolutely absurd. Covering our gaping mouths with our hoods, we prepared ourselves for the experience. I pushed off slowly, the flat slope gradually gaining pitch, and I, gradually gaining speed. Within 2-3 turns I was in the thick of it and snow was everywhere. There are a few lone trees scattered about this area, and thankfully they were the only things we needed to worry about. Each turn was a blinding explosion of white which flew up to our chests, up to our mouths, into our eyes, over our heads. With the breathing problem solved, now the issue was vision. I can recall one run where I plotted my course from the top, just to the left of one of the lone trees, pushed off, and held on tight. The ride consisted of 90% white punctuated by short episodes of “There’s that tree… there it is again… now it’s close… there it goes… oh my god! Although Moose Creek only offers up a few hundred vertical feet before it ends in a cat track which brings you back to the lift, it was far too good, dare I say “Epic” to ignore. I will use Epic since this was undoubtedly one of my top 10 days, and my best day ever in the Western U.S. I’ve skied deeper snow, and steeper snow, and lighter snow, and longer runs, but as the ski industry would say, this was the longest-deepest-steepest-lightest snow I’d ever skied, or something to that effect. And this was unquestionably the “face-shotinnest day” I’d ever seen. We cycled Moose Creek a half dozen times, eventually meeting up with my supervisor Byron, and his supervisor Bruce. Technically, we were celebrating Martin Luther King Day (and boy were we celebrating) but I think the lab would have been devoid of skiers whatever day it had been. Everyone in town knew this was not a day to be missed. So, now it comes down to this. After 4 feet of snow in just the past week, we are left with the following forecast from the National Weather Service. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 940 PM MST (840 PM PST) THU JAN 24 2002 NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BLACKFOOT REGION-INCLUDING...DRUMMOND...SEELEY LAKE...ELK RIVER...PIERCE...POWELL...ELK CITY...DIXIE...SULA ...A HEAVY SNOW WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO ABOVE 4000 FEET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL FALL OVER THE CLEARWATER...BITTERROOT AND MISSION MOUNTAINS. We’ve set ourselves at a 12-inch powder rule tomorrow which will determine whether we ski in the morning or not, but either way we’ll be out there on Saturday. If it comes anywhere close to MLK day it’ll be awesome. E (that lucky stiff) is out of school tomorrow with her 5th grade class for their first ski trip of the year up at Lost Trail. This day was planned months in advance, but boy can they pick ‘em. I haven’t heard any 1st hand reports, but everyone is thinking that the avalanche danger in the backcountry is pretty horrendous with all this new snow. Our friend James is due to arrive in Missoula by plane on Saturday evening. For his sake, I hope his flight can make it in. Unfortunately, I didn’t get any pictures from Monday (MLK) but I did get a few from Sunday. They can be found at the following address: http://www.uvm.edu/~jsilveir/20JAN02.html J.Spin _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html

Wow you guys don't even have any leafout yet? We are already 80-90 percent leafed out. Yesterday it was 91 degrees with 74 dews, nice pleasant early spring weather down here in south central Tex. I was kicking back in the back porch on an easy chair snoring away. I've already been working outside in this stuff for days. But tonight that damn pesky cold front hit and now its freezing cold with 53/44 and north winds to 38 mph. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

Hope the Mid Atlantic gets plenty of rain, but not flooding or severe weather. You guys need some rain. I just don't want MillvilleWx to have to write up another 2000-word ERD for Northern Virginia or the District. All that urban concrete would be a total catastrophe. The runoff would be INTER-Generational.

Tornado outbreaks and flood warnings are popping up all over that region. Heavy training rains will continue into Saturday, provoking severe, even catastrophic floods.

Extreme NE AR and western TN are in play for some of the greatest generational rain tallies seen in the past 100 years over the next 5 days, as well as severe weather, tornadoes, very large damaging hail and high wind gusts. You guys might want to start play by plays. I know this is the mid Atlantic sub but their sub is fast asleep, I suspect many of those folks are working extremely hard to get ready for this atrocious weather event. Category 5 for severe https://www.weather.gov/meg/ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 642 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 -Severe weather and very heavy rainfall are expected this afternoon through Saturday. -Five day total rainfall amounts are in the 10 to 15 inch range along and north of I-40. This is not your average flood risk. Generational flooding with devastating impacts is possible. -A High Risk of severe weather today, a Slight Risk is in effect Thursday,Friday and Saturday. -A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect today, Friday and Saturday with a High Risk on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A dangerous weather pattern will unravel this afternoon as an upper level low and attendant cold front will impinge on the area. As the system inches closer, the pressure gradient will tighten and bring strong sustained and gusty wind conditions. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 7 AM this morning due to these conditions. The highest winds will be found across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Elsewhere, gusts around 40 mph and sustained winds between 20-30 mph are expected. Surface analysis as of 3 AM shows a warm front lifting north across the Memphis metro. Surface observations behind the boundary show dewpoints entering the 60s. This moisture will provide ample instability combined with lift from the approaching cold front and a 70 kt LLJ; a High Risk for severe weather is in store for portions of the Mid-South today. The upgrade in risk is tornado driven as SRH values exceed 200 m2/s2 with curved and elongated hodographs. The CAMs have also been more in favor of discrete cell development, and given this prime environment, these cells could easily turn supercellular and produce strong tornadoes. Discrete cell development will be approaching from the west as early as 3 PM this afternoon. Strong tornadoes are not the only concern, lapse rates are between 7-8C/km with almost 3,000 MUCAPE to work with, significant hail is not out of the question; especially in any supercells. The discrete cells eventually will congeal into a line as the cold frontal boundary is anticipated to stall practically along the I-4O corridor late tonight which will shift to a damaging wind threat of 70+ mph gusts. Once the storm mode is more linear, embedded supercells within the line could still produce a tornado. The most likely timing for the severe weather is 3 PM- 12 AM as the loss of daytime heating and rain cooled surfaces should help stabilize the environment. It is so important to have multiple ways to receive warnings especially as some of these tornadoes could be strong and long tracked. All hazards could occur after sunset, which is the most deadly time. As mentioned above, the stalled frontal boundary will linger with at least slight chances of severe weather through Saturday. Instability to the south of the front is still favorable of a strong to severe thunderstorm. As this front remains parked, it will provide enough lift and bursts of energy to need to be monitored for a few storms with all hazards at play. This pattern will continue until the front clears the area. Saturday, the severe weather threat could increase slightly across north Mississippi as the front begins to move over a not as saturated area. While we continue to monitor the severe weather potential, a historical rainfall event will commence. Generational flash, river, and areal flooding are all possible. Maxed out precipitable water values for four convective days, training storms extremely likely, and any convective development increasing localized amounts has QPF values forecast to be in the 10-15 inch range. The area likely to see such high amounts will be along and north of I-40. Considerable flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas, is expected. Never drive through flooded waters, and flooded roadways are significantly more difficult to see at night. The axis of heavy rainfall could still very easily shift so be sure to continue to monitor the forecast. While our current forecast could break several rainfall records across the area, it is a bit more optimistic for it to be more spread out over four days, however, the culmination will put a strain on the ground`s ability to absorb. At some point, soils will become supersaturated and leave no option but to reject all the additional rain as runoff. Flash flooding will emerge as a primary concern with this extremely active pattern. In addition, all of this rainfall will make tree limbs very weak and easily breakable. It is best to not only prepare for flooding, but power outages as well. Moderate Risks and a High Risk of excessive rainfall are in effect for portions of the Mid-South each day through the event.

Looks like you need some help diggin out. That place reminds me of Mammoth Resort!

This is an EMERGENCY BROADCAST. THIS HAS BEEN RELEASED FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST TN and nearby regions are facing GENERATIONAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN in the upcoming week! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 841 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 817 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 -A very unsettled and active pattern will emerge this week. Several days of severe weather and heavy rainfall are expected through Saturday. -Seven day total rainfall amounts are in the 10 to 15 inch range along and north of I-40, with the heaviest amounts falling from Wednesday to Saturday. -An Enhanced Risk of severe weather is present on Wednesday, a Slight Risk is in effect Thursday. -A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 817 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Surface analysis this evening places a 1018 mb surface high over the Upper Midwest. This is resulting in clear skies and temperatures in the 50s across the Mid-South as of 8 PM CDT. Current temperatures and dewpoints are running slightly cooler than forecast. Will make some adjustments to account for short- term trends. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape overall. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The Mid-South currently sits in a wonderful spring-like regime, characterized by dry weather and highs in the 60s and 70s. This pattern will last through Tuesday, before several days of impactful weather return to the Mid-South. Guidance continues to depict a stout shortwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies on Wednesday. This feature will kick-off surface cyclogenesis in the northern Plains with an attendant cold front accompanying the low. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict the center of low pressure dropping to around 985mb over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. As this system translates east, it will tighten the pressure gradient over the Mid-South. A Wind Advisory may be needed in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel on Wednesday as sustained winds reach 25 mph. Ahead of Wednesday`s frontal passage, the Mid-South will sit in an open warm sector primed for severe storms. Further spatial analysis depicts favorable instability and shear overlapping in the late afternoon / early evening time frame. This corresponds with the development of a 50kt LLJ, further aiding storm severity. The big question at this time lies with timing of convective initiation. The environment remains relatively uncapped throughout the day, but guidance holds off on storm development until the late afternoon. Any storms that fire in the late afternoon / early evening will become supercellular in nature, posing a risk for all severe weather hazards. In addition, hodographs at this time gain curvature and becomes slightly elongated. A strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out with the supercell storms that develop in the evening. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has kept the majority of the Mid-South in an Enhanced Risk for severe storms on Wednesday. Due to uncertainty with how early morning showers will impact the airmass, a higher categorical outlook was forgone. Severe storm chances will wane after sunset. A multi-day period of heavy rain is anticipated Thursday through Saturday as the previously discussed front stalls right along the I-40 corridor. Precipitable water values will approach and exceed the 99th percentile, resulting in efficient rainfall production. The latest storm total estimates paint a swath of 12 inches of rain falling in northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee between Wednesday and Saturday. Elsewhere, rainfall totals will range from 5-10 with amounts tapering off in the southeast portion of the forecast area. This amount of rainfall is generational. Significant river, areal, and flash flooding are anticipated during this 4 day stretch. We strongly urge everyone to remain weather aware as this event unfolds. A significant threat to life and property will emerge as this rainfall occurs. An end to the wet and unsettled period is in sight. Next Monday will be the first fully dry day. Until then, monitor your local forecast and stay safe. ANS &&

Mammoth is getting demolished by heavy snows and high winds. Over the Woolly Lot is is essentially becoming an intermittent whiteout. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Snow is rapidly piling up and blowing all over. It's an outright milkshake froth at times.

Join the Club. We Texans fail at rain, too.

This is very good, GeorgeBM! You really need to go to meteorological school and become a real Met, and get RED TAGGED up in here! You have definitely got the potential! Meanwhile in other news, Mammoth Mtn is getting smashed by steady snows and strong winds! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam It's getting that look about it! Check out that 3 foot deep drift in front of the stairs by the big Mammoth! Its piling up! Mammoth got 10 inches of freshies last night, 6 more today and will pile up more pow tonight!

Its snowing pretty good at Mammoth. They may get 2 to 3 feet of freshies in the next 48 hours! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge Woolly Cam is getting that look! Cloud bases are plummeting and snow is being blown sideways! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Palisades 8200 foot Scope is getting smashed too! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=palisades

One more thing. George BM, I would really like it if you would please post a big storm of any kind at the beginning of the April Banter Thread. Please!

Just a heads up: You lookin for good Spring skiing with deep freshies? Look no further than Mammoth Mtn and Palisades Tahoe come Sunday thru Tuesday, with an even bigger snowstorm a few days later! The Pac is gearing up for late season annihilation of the Sierran Cordillera! Lots of free refills and deep stashes!