Dark Star

Had the slightest slippery area of the part of my driveway which doesn't get any sun, here in Garwood NJ (central Union County). Temperature was 34.

Great Lakes effect?

Indeed farther north. Not sure how people survive in those regions. I guess there is something to be said about solitude...

Edmonton is 22 degrees F and Gillam is -22 F. Not sure how accurate these readings are. Gillam is a bit southwest of the lower corner of the Hudson Bay. Based on this, the core of the colder air in Canada appears to be in the East?

That's always a good one. I am more optimistic this winter, since we have seen something resembling cold air...

CYA? With a high of 38 today, and a low of 32 tonight, freezing rain isn't likely. Although we all know 32 is the freezing temperature, you really need something colder than that for freezing rain. However, on some outlying areas, where untreated surfaces might be a tad colder, a light spotty drizzle could freeze on contact and cause havoc. There is spot on the Garden State Parkway, somewhere near or just south of the PNC Bank Art Center, there is a section of the road (near a wetland) that on rare occasions freezes when there is a heavy dew or light fog and cars go skidding.

January thaw historically was between January 17 through January 23rd. Not that anybody is going to hold the weather to those specific dates.

That is correct.

That doesn't prove anything. Radiational cooling is always minimized with stronger winds, and is at it s peak with no winds. This theory is going nowhere without true modeling. While there may be a minute difference in warming from the unfrozen lakes, this is at best a hypothesis that needs an in depth study.

I will daresay less than 1 degree, and a lot less than winds reducing the effect of overnight radiational cooling, downsloping, lack of snow cover. Until someone can quantify it for NYC, it is a non item.

My memory is poor, but I thought we were moving towards a phase 8 last winter, then just disappeared?

Ever hear that high winds impedes radiational cooling? If you can show me the calculations, then maybe it can be considered. Of course you would have to taken in heating due to downsloping, etc...

and you can quantify the effect on NYC and it takes in account the effects of downsloping, cloud cover, snow cover, and all other variables?

Unquantifiable, therefore, not (officially) a factor here.

Thank you!

As I have said, too many variables to make a generalized statement of the effects of the Great Lakes on NYC temperatures. And surely, why would the effect be greater at night than during the day?

Good points. I think this topic could use its own thread.

Remnants of the line directly over Linden NJ, but I all observe is a broken cloud deck...

As a stubborn old guy, I first measure the actual temperature. After that, then I look at the wind and wind chill effect temperature. for sure, the wind chills were extremely uncomfortable at times this January, but the actual air temperature was more representative of January (based on the past 150 years or so of data).

THANK YOU!!!

150 years seems like a good enough data base. Except we only use 20 years (or 30 years according to Mgerb) for our averages. And although we don't have records going back before they were officially recorded, I thought we had a fairly reliable estimates from things such as tree cross sections, sedimentations, ice core sampling?

January 2025 is the colder departure. Don't forget, our average normal departures are based on the most recent 20 year averages, which are warmer than the 20 years before that, and 20 years before that. So although November and December were colder than the "average" is really wasn't that cold, just closer to "normal"

There is insufficient research to prove it. It would be nearly impossible to gather enough data of enough different scenarios to come even close to thinking that the Great Lakes would have any affect on NYC. I could see maybe a degree, but any more than that would be purely speculative. And why would the Great Lakes "effect" have more impact on night time temperatures than daytime temperatures? How can they have much of an effect more than 400 mile away? More than warming resulting from downslope over the Appalachians, wind preventing radiational cooling. heat island effects, other weather factors, such as where the core of the cold air entered the US? Again, there may be an effect, but not even close to any of the ones I mentioned, and most likely improbable to isolate and quantitate. Snow cover, besides providing a cold and reflective surface, provides a less frictional surface, allowing cold air to travel farther and become less moderated. So yes, a large water body can also have an effect, but again, not to that extent. And again, you get into the debate over a source of cold air coming directly down eastern Canada through the Hudson Valley. Not only is it direct cold air, but it will freeze Hudson Bay in a hurry.

Takes 5 hours to get to Boston, maybe about 90 minutes to get to Philly?