The only reason not to pull the plug on winter yet, is because the extended models have been pretty awful. Usually, if a bad pattern exists, and if by the last week of January there is no cold air in sight, you can cancel winter. Just have to hope the long range models continue not to have a clue (because right now it doesn't look promising). Ponds, waterways are not frozen, most don't even have a trace. This is not winter, just a holding place between fall and spring.
Global warming (no matter what the cause) has spoken...