Dark Star

? Heavier impulses moving through are not real banding, such as in deformation zones, occlusions, warm fronts off the ocean. What is depicted are normal waves moving along. These typically do not make the difference between 12" and 20". Slight variations perhaps. Banding, in my opinion is used too broadly.

Is this how '96 started out?

What kind of banding?

Not mixing issues or dry slots, but the most intense precipitation is over the Delmarvala. Unless this thing sits a while, it may be gone too quick?

Switching over to snow in Garwood NJ (central Union County). I need a minimum of 14 inches. Heaviest precip over the Delmarvala. Is that too far north?

What will cause the deformation zones in this setup?

So the Blizzard of '26 begins as light rain. As Joe Beradelli says, "The devil is in the details". Is the western ridge positioned correctly? Is the high to our north oriented for favorable cold air? Where will the dry slot form? Will the dry slot be too large? Many things to consider besides just model agreement. As stated before, I hate the term "banding". Most convective systems produce "waves" of varying degrees of intensity of the precipitation. When I think of banding, I tend to think more in terms of deformation zones, points of occlusion, ocean air warm fronts, etc. Throwing banding out there is just a cop out. Models are crunching areas of higher precipitation, like eastern Monmouth County in NJ and Staten Island. Will we have winds of 35 mph or more for greater than 3 hours across a major portion of the region, or will this be confined to just eastern parts of Long Island or the Jersey shore? Since the potential exists, the NWS is obligated to issue the warning. But as some mets know, wind is perhaps the most overly "exaggerated" feature forecast by the models. We shall see shortly. Probably my last best chance of a major snow storm before my move down to Tennessee. Best of luck to all...

Is the ridge in the west where we would want it?

Banding, one of my least favorite terms. I prefer deformation zones, etc...

Got 31" in Garwood, which confirmed the same amount in Elizabeth, 3 towns to my north. Central Park drastically under measured.

Never eclipsing 1996. The storm was amazing. It kept coming down hard. And when the intensity dropped slightly, it only came down just as hard a minute later. However, I wouldn't mind seeing a 40 inch snowstorm...

By the end, do you mean after the snow ends?

Rates? Just a guess...

But is the GFS AI a little farther east?

I don't think the models showed a huge snowstorm a few days out. Maybe about 8 days ago, one or two models were showing a snowstorm. From what I have been following, most models have been south and east since this Monday. Most probabilities were low. However, I feel your pain. I was hoping things would trend westward.

Mizzle at 36 degrees in Garwood, NJ.

You folks are in a different climate...

I hate when age old definitions are changed. If it is not snowing, but if the snow on the ground is wind driven fiercely enough, give it another name.

Two closed lows?

Hmmm, sounds like this applies to any potential snow situation?

Amazing, there appears to be a very narrow (5 mile wide) snow hole from New Brunswick NJ up to Northvale NJ.

Less than an inch here in Garwood NJ. Within the range of most forecasts. However, my now casting skills are horrendous. I saw the precipitation shield last night and thought my area was in for at least 2 inches.

Yes, but the deep freeze afterwards solidified the entire profile into any icy mass.

So this isn't a weaker version of a system progged over a week ago?

True dat, but at least we did have a winter. Relatively short, as it looks like it we will be in a warming trend to close out February?