Dark Star
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Everything posted by Dark Star
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Give or take 1/10 of a degree, (I think) the global temperature has risen about 1.5 degrees over the last 100 years. So I wouldn't expect the dramatic shift we have been seeing. Some of this board have pointed out that the slowing down of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation has warmed the greater NYC by as much as 4 degrees over the last decade, or so (yes I understand about the expanding heat island effect). That, plus the stubborn Pacific Jet has been raising this forums temperatures to more than noticeable levels. Is the position and extent of the Pacific Jet just a normal variation, or is global warming causing it to be fixed where it is? Has China largely contributed to this stubborn hot spot in the Pacific, since a great deal of the carbon emissions have been transferred to that country over the last 30 years?
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For the NYC immediate metro area, (true) snow squalls are rare. Unless you have a truly dynamic system, they are near impossible to predict with accuracy. Much like a line of summer T-Storms, once they pass over the eastern Appalachians in eastern PA, then move over the foothills of NJ, the downslope robs most of them of their punch.
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I am ever so slightly optimistic to see cold air return again this winter, only because we actually broke the trend and saw come cold weather...
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What about freezing ponds for skating, or making snow on the slopes?
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I saw some virga...
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I don't know about that. I think you need a sustained "COLD" period to really do the job?
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Though persistence is the least scientific forecasting tool, it would be difficult to doubt any extended range outlook for warmer than normal temperatures, given the recent history...
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Both NBC and CBS...
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At the parade itself, is okay. It's what they put on television...
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That's okay, the Macy's parade has become a joke. Even CBS is not going to air it...
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Looks like only 0.15" in Newark, with the temperature at 59 degrees...
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I'm surprised. I expected almost all of it to have been melted...
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Duly noted. However, "wrap around precipitation" or "filling in on the back end" rarely happens any more, even if models agree. Much akin to short term high wind warnings; models don't seem good in mixing down the wind, probably due to surface friction. Thanks for the insight. I miss Jeff Beradelli's post storm reviews. I think we can learn from write-ups like that, pointing out where the models went wrong, and what would have been the correct tools to focus on...
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Like clockwork, just as the snow shield was approaching northeast NJ, the sun came out...
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Banding?
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As per yesterdays conversation pertaining to "Wrap around moisture". Originally last week I thought this was progged to be a cutter (Upper level low over the Great Lakes)? Then a secondary (Low level) storm developed over NJ? Then some predicted ample wrap around precipitation on Friday? Is this true wraparound moisture, or just the upper level low moving across and not weakening ,as usually does cry out? As I said, Most wraparound precipitation and/or back end moisture rarely make it to the greater NYC metro area. Do all the other models/ outputs still support the HRRR?
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If there is cold air to be supplied. I recall most of the cold air was on the other side of the pole 2 weeks ago.
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Oh, if we only had legalized weather betting...
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Wrap around moisture is usually a fail, more times than not?
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All I see are cutters?
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I wish there was legalized betting on this!
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So far, clear as a bell in Garwood. The morning air actually smelled clean!
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"It's getting late, early"...
