Dark Star

3" even in Garwood, central Union County NJ. Boy was I ever wrong. Despite the trough still to come through, my thoughts were that the coastal would rob most of the energy, as I have so often seen, leaving the original system gasping and drying up. So instead, we had an overperformer, which I will gladly take. I miss Jeff Beradelli's summary of what happened. They would go into depth what models were correct, explain in detail the components involved. It was an excellent hindsight "forecast", meaning the devil is in the details, meaning the clues were there, you just had to pick the right ones to have gotten the right forecast.

Beauteous...

Maybe, but my son flips lawn mowers, boat engines, motorcycles, etc. they all have the same problem, gas in the carb gunked it up.

I think I heard to run it out, then add stabilizer at the end to insure that most of the gasoline is gone, but mainly stabilizer remains in the lines and carb?

What? Worst thing for any gas powered machine. Run all the gas out and prevent that carb from gunking up...

I wouldn't say Mega. Right now, Garwood NJ is in a lull, even though radar says more is to come. It is a matter of how fast the coastal low steals the rest of the energy away from the original Clipper. Seems that when NWS and TV mets start nowcasting for increased snow amounts, that's when the bulk of the precip has likely fallen...

So no conservation of energy with this setup?

The coastal, which I think is too far north already, won't rob the energy and cut off precip in our area after midnight?

Very light snow in Garwood NJ. About 35 degrees. Slight patch o' white on the periphery. Filled in better than I expected, staying mostly snow. We have a clipper, developing coastal and an inverted trough. Without models, I expect the developing coastal to pull most of the energy from the clipper. Even though some say the low was around the outer banks, I think it is much further north than that, and by the time the original source gets here, I would think the coastal will have robbed most of it and "heaviest" snow will be north of suburban NYC?

Yet we just had a post several days ago on how greatly improved most of the models are.

Mood Flurries falling in Garwood, Central Union County NJ

Models are certainly improved since I was banging in 1981, but they have gotten dramatically better since 2004? I've seen some > 5 day models actually get worse in the last few years...

There are some pretty intelligent and rational people here (I'm not one of them). What are these drones?

Interesting that they use some of the same colors for above and below normal?

Just be careful in the bath houses...

I don't know, probably just my imagination, but does anyone track average winds per day? I could swear it's been windier than normal over the last 10 years or so. Probably just my memory, or my hair notices it more (since there is less of it)...

When you are snow starved, and in the pattern with that relentless Pacific jet, you don't like to waste any cold air...

What time will it start?

That would mean a lot of regions average below normal (especially if most of the US has been above average)?

Didn't receive a true squall here in Linden. More just like a light (to at best moderate) snow shower. Nothing stuck or accumulated.

Snow shower in the Tremley Point section of Linden, NJ. Some pinging, so I assume either sleet or graupel is mixed in (although somebody on this Board called for a mix of snow and hail?

Years ago, counties were putting out bans on dumping snow directly into waterways because they were concerned about the road salts mixed in and affecting the water quality. Now they pre salt even though no freezing/accumulation is likely.

I thought it was supposed to be near 60 by midweek?

Awful. Not that the models are meant to be accurate at that distance in time, but to be completely opposite would say not to even run them for that period. I guess some day when "AI" is built into the models which would allow them to correct themselves when it sees its own stupidity?