Dark Star

Holy crap, around noon time, Newark only had 0.75" (the NWS is only showing 1.15" for Newark airport?) We did get some heavier downbursts after 12 pm to about 2 PM. No flooding in the immediate area. But looks like NYC received a heavier band that was somewhat training over the area. I see Newark updated its rain totals, reflecting what you said earlier...

That's almost always debatable. The rain is "showery" in nature. Most of the day featured on and off showers, mainly light in nature, with some heavier downpours. But, depending upon your exact location, you may have had more persistent heavier bursts. Certainly Northeastern PA was a bullseye, as forecast. Seems like your area was another bullseye. We had a snowstorm, I think within the last 10 years that was extremely spotty, some areas getting 20"+ and other areas 5", from town to town. I can't remember a snowstorm that was that "convective" before. Then within a week or so later, another snowstorm was forecast. Storm Field was predicting the exact same thing, extreme variations in totals, as though suddenly this was a new trend. The snowfall amounts in the 2nd storm were much more uniform.

Okay, maybe not. Everything looks to be moving out when forecasts called for the heaviest between this afternoon and this evening?

Around 3/4" in Garwood, central Union County. Rain intensity is variable, sometimes coming down at 50 degree angles, other times not so much. Wind light at times to moderate...

Models looking pretty good in general. They had at least one bullseye over northeastern PA, and that looks to be panning out...

New12 NJ called for 0.5" generally throughout the state yesterday. I would place my money on that forecast...

Dry slots seem to have become a norm?

I hope we don't get into a pissing contest, blaming poor forecasts on budget cuts?

No cold (direct) polar air yet in our area. If I read Don correctly, when the coldest air is in Siberia around this time, we should probably expect the dreaded Pacific Jet to dominate?

We do know that more real time data should result in better model forecast outcomes. However 0.01% to 0.028% is pretty low. I would guess we had a lot less in the 1970s and 1980s?

Good Old Ben...

The Limited Fine Mesh...

Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out. That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't..

Humidity is a bit much..

11 hours, seems less than that. I guess we only notice when the sun is up, versus twilight during dawn and dusk...