Dark Star

I don't know. I feel that all recordable history events are valid and relevant. I am in the minority that average temperatures should factor in from whenever we first started recording. We use maximum and minimum temperatures from inception...

Every 6 hours was silly. The actual snowfall is what is on the ground (or measuring surface), rather than a theoretical depth not accounting for gravity or other physical properties. And I believe there is an average based on a differernt number of spots, so as to account for variations due to drifting, or is this just for larger snow falls?

I received 2.5" (maybe 2.8" figuring in compression), so I would naturally assume Central Park was not going to excced central Union County NJ (about 10 miles south/southwest of Newark Airport). But the storm was farther north and east, so the CPK measurement is not suspect, in my opinion...

I still contend that the lack of snow in areas such as Union county NJ was that the center for the storm was too far north. Areas north and east of NYC got the jackpot. Without enough lift in my area, the storm dynamics fizzled. Had the storm been more intense, it would have easily overcome the "warm nose" and "dry slot". To reiterate an earlier post, we are mainly disagreeing over semantics.

I don't really recall, although I think Long Island does occasionally receive some ocean/sound enhancement?

Measured 2.5" at 6 AM. It snowed about another 1/3", but still just measured 2.5" at 8:30 AM. I guess the difference was lost to compresssion.

NWS defines a dry slot: Dry Slot A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.

"Screw zones", in my defintion, are different than dry slots. It is an area of poor dynamics. You are not necessarily incorrect. The cold air advection out ahead of the storm caused drier air. However, the main lifting of the storm was always going to be north and east of the this area.

This particular discussion is only about Manhattan, specifically Central Park (despite its notorious poor snow depth reportings). My interpretation is the storm was a bust. Some could argue, in a broad sense, that the storm was not a bust. Strangely, all models came on board about 5 days ago that this would be an all snow event. After 2 days in a row reaching the 40s (or more), the temperature miraculously cooled down just before the clipper like system was to arrive (cold air being one of the ingredients for snow). The only thing peculiar was that the main dynamics of the storm would be north and east of Manhattan. Historically, this is not a good recipe for an all snow event. However, I was optimistic for a good snowfall, based on the model consensus. EVERYBODY, or so it seemed, was saying that Central Park was going to receive a significant snowfall. I had not seen one of the models 00z run on 12/26/2025, which depicted a lighter amount. Instead, I was noticing throughout the day on Friday, that after the overcast became solid, had begun thinning, and pretty much cleared at times, in advance of the storm. Based on experience, 98 times out of 100, if the overcast breaks or the sun becomes visible hours before the storm, it will be a bust. With the 2 out of the last 100 times occuring within the last 10 years. You can use that information for now casting. For now casting, you can pretty much ignore the models and start going on instinct and various real time indicators on what is actually occurring. This system will be discussed and argued, many arguing over semantics or defintion. Some have already said that this system "dry slotted". I will disagree. To me, a dry slot occurs when a storm occludes, becomes intense and mature, and forms the standard comma shape. The intensity of the storm draws in dry air from hundreds of miles away. This was not the case. One of the key ingredients for snow, cold air" was advecting into the system ahead of the storm. Cold air, as we know, is drier. The dynamics of the system was not as intense in this area. Again, the main dynamics were to remain north and east of Manhattan. Some warned of a "warm nose" that would cut down on snow totals. Though not wrong, if the dyamics were as the models depicted, the warm nose most likely would not have changed the snow to sleet, or rain. The fact is, the precipitation stopped at times after an intial light covering of snow. With very little lift, virtually no dynamic atmospheric cooling. Present HRRR suggests some "back building" of snow into the area, at least through mid morning. This could bring Central Park nearer to the lower end of the 4" to 8" range, which some will say that the forecasts were accurate. I disagree. The dynamics of the storm that were forecast simply missed Manhattan.

The system is weaker, which is why we saw several breaks of sun during the day. 90% of the time, when it become overcast, and sun breaks through, it is the kiss of death. Didn't say anything earlier, didn't want the weenie tag. Also, the center of the storm is north. Maybe see some moderate snow as more consistent precip moves our way?

Changed to sleet here in Garwood, central Union County NJ. Tell me its because of the light precipitation and not that the atmosphere is warming at upper levels...

Nary a flurry in Garwood, central Union county NJ. Feels cold at 29 degrees.

Hard to say where influences come from. Some could be inherent within one's self. For example,my affinity for bluegrass could have come from the Beverly Hillbillies or Andy Griffith. Check out the weather maps from the 1964 Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer. Isobars, pressure systems, almost subliminal. By 10 years old, I had my own Weather board.