MANDA

Overnight low of 14 with a howling wind. Lost power briefly. It is cold out there. Finished with .30" snow yesterday with a melted total of .02". As expected for this area.

Overnight low of 14 with a howling wind. Lost power briefly. It is cold out there. Finished with .30" snow yesterday with a melted total of .02".

I guess to each his own but some are thinking northern stream issues and some are thinking southern stream issues. I am in the southern stream camp. Too much hangs back and it makes any phase much less likely. No phase and we're essentially out of business. We'll see how this plays out. I would never ever bet the farm with only the GFS solidly in my camp so I really need some better agreement from either the CMC or the EURO, don't really care which at this point. All comes down to timing a reasonably coherent phase.

From Christmas Eve into Christmas day it was locked and loaded.

Point taken. I was just going by the official record. Yes, those pictures don't jive with the official record. On the other hand the drifting was historic. One side of the street was swept essentially clean and the other side was buried. Hard to tell in that picture what was from drifts with then removed snow piled on. I have a nice book of 1888 somewhere by Judd Caplovich but have not picked it up in decades.

1888 in the city had totals MUCH lower than Jan 1996. I was only referencing 1993 vs. 1888 to compare March storms. A track to the east would have easily doubled what NYC got in 1March 1993 with winds gusting to hurricane force. Would have been an epic blizzard.

Have often thought that. A track 75 miles or so to the east of where it went would have rivaled the Blizzard of 1888 in NYC. Those tremendous totals in update NY would have been much closer to the city if things were displaced a rather short distance to the east. Never lost the cold at the surface over in Morris County just the mid levels as it was.

Finished with .30" here.

Maybe better pictures.

Link to Extended discussion from WPC. While their extended progs lean away from GFS solution they have left the door open for changes. I'm not favoring the GFS solution at the moment but IF the EURO is hanging too much energy back over the SW (as it sometimes does) then a better outcome is possible. I wouldn't be slamming the door on this just yet. It is 5 days away with a complex evolution. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

At one point. Maybe the Thursday or Friday before event started one of the models (UKMET) I think had a 954 low over central New England. Managed to save the 36 and 48 hour panels off the NGM and they hang on my wall. Those 36 and 48 hour positions were about 50-75 miles further west than reality on the NGM. Hard to read as the glass of the frame didn't allow the best picture.

Yes, sorry. you are correct. It was the AVN / MRF for 93 and 96 for sure. Got carried away.

Feb 83 wasn't decided until the morning of for most of this forum. Guidance as of 11pm night before said no. Had surface low going east of Hatteras. My first clue was plotting up a surface map the morning of by hand (we did that back in the day) and there were good pressure falls into eastern NC and Hatteras had an E to ESE wind. Low was not going to pass east of them and up it came to off the coast of NJ about as far as ACY then scooted ENE from there. Took forever for snow to move from Staten Island into mid-town Manhattan. Big surge of moisture with DP's into the 60's off the coast of SC. Low was of modest depth in the mid to high 990's if I remember correctly. Very dynamic though as there was thunder and lightning for several hours at the peak of the event during the evening hours. One of my favorite storms in terms of snowfall intensity. Ended before sunrise and sun was out and melting underway by the afternoon. Drove home from the city just as the heavy stuff was getting underway. Lucky to have made it to Bayonne and stayed with a relative. Intensity was insane once I came out of the Lincoln Tunnel and the trip down the NJ Turnpike was hellish. The trip across the Newark Bay Extension took the better part of an hour. I was worried I was going to be stuck on that bridge but thankfully it crept along. By time I arrived in Bayonne better than 6" on the ground, about 3 hours after I left the city. 1978 was well forecast the LFM had it and kept it for 48 hours. Longer range Spectral / Baroclinic gave solid signal 5 days out and 5 day extended discussion from NMC (at the time) was all over it. 1993 forecast well in advance and hardly any wavering. Euro was all over it. GFS was flailing and was the last to lock it in but 5 days in advance the forecast signal was great. 1996 did not solidify until the 12Z runs the day before the event. Looked to pass south prior to those Saturday morning runs.

I think this is the surprise of the day - that northern band well up into Rockland and Westchester and even a bit beyond. Otherwise I think this all went as planned. I was going with flurries to 1/2" for my location and so far I'm sitting just over .10" with ongoing flurries. Totals further south also as forecast for the most part.

And keep the feature in the southwest moving along. Don't want that to slow down. We'll see what the EURO does with that. It has had a bias of slowing and hanging that feature up. Not sure if that was fixed in the recent upgrade. We'll get a hint in the next few days. If these pieces can come together we could get the goods. GFS flip flops aside there is decent GFES Ensemble support. At 5 days out this is about all you can expect. Would be happier if EURO and EPS at least nudged more favorable in the next 24 hours or so. I'm interested!

Model whiplash advisory in effect. Buckle up to prevent injury.

A period of light snow earlier but just light flurries now. Just shy of .10" at the moment.

Buckle up....to prevent model whiplash.

Going with flurries to perhaps 1/2" here but hard lean toward the flurries.

Got the Kuchera? I am sure we’ll do better than the standard 10:1. I see I am in the bullseye. That concerns me.

Good grief why???? This was never going to be anything of substance for them to begin with. Unless you go back 10 days or so with a few rogue runs. Melting down over what? They need to unburden themselves from what was never going to be.

Buckle up !

The anomaly map shows the impact of the impending snow cover nicely.

The greatest departures from normal for this upcoming cold always looked like they would be south central plains into the southeast. Anything coming into the Mid-Atlantic / Northeast will be greatly muted for the reasons you all suggested. Also, not great snow cover over the Plains, Mid-West / Ohio Valley either so even eastbound could will be modified. Gold standard for Arctic outbreaks is -40 at 850, not seeing that either. At least over the next 7-10 days. Still, this looks like a solid stretch of BN cold upcoming even if it is against our warmest set of normals on record.

Boy, that stat sure sheds light on a 30 year period. I could probably mention all 5 years off the top of my head. Those were tough times. There were some memorable storms in there, just very few of them.