MANDA
-
Posts
2,222 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by MANDA
-
I believe the GFS was upgraded and put into op mode today, GFSV16.3. Was supposed to go operational yesterday but held off until today due to the severe weather. We'll see how it performs. My expectations are low. The upcoming high latitude blocking seems like a given at this point. Model consistency across the board has been good and it has not been getting pushed out in time like last year. What fruit it yields is yet to be determined. Do not underestimate the possibility that it is just cold and dry with perhaps something as the block retrogrades and decays in the week or so before Christmas. As mentioned in a prior post by jm1220.
-
Thank goodness for the "cold" period after the very warm opening or it might have been a top 3 or warmer November. The colder than normal middle of the month did a decent job at knocking back the opening very positive departures. Months with negative temperature departures (even against the warmest normals we've ever had) are pretty rare these days. We'll see what December can produce but the opening of the month is certainly going to start off on the milder side. December does look to have the POTENTIAL to finish BN but caution is advised since much will depend on the -NAO blocking and were / how it actually positions itself. If the SE ridge (which seems to be a semi-permanent feature of late) hangs on, even only modestly then temperatures will finish at or above normal levels. Pattern overall though looks to favor much colder air masses from the center of the country at least oozing into the eastern 1/3 of the nation.
-
IF, and it is a BIG IF this far out, that over the top ridge bridge works out then we could see winter weather of note. I'll add that it is the GFS and it is WAY out in time. If this vanishes or keeps getting pushed out in time, i.e. it is always two weeks away then it is not likely to evolve. Right now my expectations are muted.
-
I know this if off topic for this forum but not much else going on in the near term so I'm posting totals from around Buffalo. Best totals clearly south of the city. Forecast max totals were realized but they were just further to the south and not in the city proper. Such is the nature of LE bands.
-
SO JEALOUS! I gotta chase one of these events...one of the few things on my bucket list.
-
Very cool! I'm counting 3 distinct mesovortices. Dynamic atmosphere.
-
A little off topic for this forum but interesting radar out of Buffalo. You can see as the flow backs from WNW to SW the lake effect snow gun is now starting to take aim on Buffalo as some intense echos are moving down the length of Lake Erie toward metro Buffalo. Give it two hours and it should be snowing hard in the Buffalo metro. COD NEXRAD: BUF
-
Just light IP / R mixture. All surfaces just wet. Temperature 34.1.
-
Same thing here. Temp also 35.4.
-
Agree! I'd not set my hopes to high for a cold December. Lots of uncertainty in my opinion.
-
Also in effect for Sussex County NJ. Elevation will play a big factor.
-
Getting an early start this year !
-
1.52" of Nicole enhanced rainfall. Kind of needed a good soaking.
-
.14" here. Even had a brief moderate shower.
-
Just checked and it did hit or exceed 80 in a few spots.
-
Warm!
-
Also find your daily posts extremely interesting. Lots of good data. You clearly put in some time in preparing them.
-
Beautiful photography work!
-
Overnight low 35. Some mid 20's coldest NW NJ locations. The 19 degree reading is suspect.
-
I agree! I'm glad it stayed solidly overcast here today with some drizzle at times. No use to m/u 70's and humidity at this time of year. I'm already concerned November is going to be warmer than normal. The last 4-5 weeks have been really nice!
-
Another .24" rainfall last 24 hours. Two day total = .45". Dense fog and drizzle currently.
-
Received .21" last 24 hours. Just enough to keep the new newly scattered grass seed moist.
-
This is one time I'm not rooting for the heaviest rains. Did some lawn repair (over seeding) to some areas that never recovered from the Summer dryness. I'll happily take .5" over a few days with showers / mist and drizzle to keep things moist. Don't need anything heavy to wash away the seed. EURO has had this to one degree or another for a while. Other guidance much less consistency. I see new version of the GFS is going to be released later in November. That should be interesting for the winter.
-
Any reports of what the coldest spots on L.I. bottomed out at this morning? Some mid and upper 20's over parts of NJ.
