MANDA

Follow up to another poster above. Here are members 1 through 25 to add to his/hers 26 to 51.

6", 12" and 18" probabilities All 3 showed slight expansion N and W from 06Z

12Z EURO MEAN and CONTROL Don't have individual members yet

This would be a very welcome and appreciated snow event for this forum if expectations were not set so high early in the week with some of the very intense and epic solutions the Euro and EPS were showing and at times CMC and GFS back 5-7 days out. Given the winter so far if this forum gets something close to the 12Z Euro take it and run!

No large scale overall changes with 12Z EURO. Just "noise" in my opinion. Remains close to something better but I think it is going to be just a little too late for most of this forum to cash in on double digit totals. NJ coast and L.I. best chances for 12"+. Amounts will taper quickly N and W of I95. Would go with 4-8" NYC. NW NJ 1-3, maybe 2-4". I think final outcome could be close to what 12Z EURO is showing. Having said that any minor adjustments could send totals upward and further to the NW as well. Gut feeling is this is just going to be a little too late for much higher than what I've described. Still a delicate situation that bears watching for adjustment.

Expecting no big changes from Euro. Perhaps a nudge east. We'll see shortly.

Agreed!

Some westward lean yes but majority of those tracks are south and east of the BM and that ain't gonna cut it. For my location I like a track between KBID and KMVY and across CC Canal to maximize totals over western and NW NJ. With these tracks SE New England cashes in and that is what most guidance is showing.

I do!

GFS is SO CLOSE to something great for along and east of I95 and L.I. Time is running out, if not out for places NW of I95 as amounts seem destined to fall off rapidly as you go NW but this still has time to produce big for coastal NJ and LI and by big I mean 12"+.

Yes, and I did amend my post immediately after I posted it. Western and northern edge of snow shield could be closer to Kuchera totals. 15:1 ratios are not likely.

Anyone hanging their hopes on Kuchera totals is in for disappointment. Except for perhaps western and northern edges of the snow shield.

I'm accepting it and have been accepting it for at least the last two days for my location. Will take significant changes to get my area in 12"+ snows and I'm not expecting it.

Liking the northern stream so far on the NAM. We'll see how this plays out for the rest of the run. Looks good so far. It does have that "go boom" look but exactly when and where?

Could not agree more. Where and when will absolutely dictate who gets what. So close to something amazing. Not that 12" for some spots is not good but expectations were set very high early on with this and then with constant posting of the Kuchera maps that skews expectations. 12Z runs will be interesting.

Outstanding morning AFD from PHI NWS office this morning. It lays out the variables and how they affect the final outcome. Check it out. A good read. Good westward shifts overnight (but for the GFS) but main takeaway is that is that this event still heavily favors I95 south and east over NJ and LI with the heaviest totals. Having said that there are still going to be shifts and adjustment over the next 24 hours or so and the zone of heaviest totals is yet to be determined.

Yes, improved over 18Z but how much worse could if have gotten than 18Z. Problem with 00Z is 500MB does not go negative and close off until too late for anyone but the immediate coast and LI. Axis stays neutral until around noon Saturday and then goes negative and cuts off and sfc low explodes but to far offshore once she goes negative. NAM so we wait and watch other guidance. It just has to happen a little sooner so we get that rapid deepening closer in. I do agree though that overall look of 00Z is improved. Just needs a little more to make this memorable.

Put another way for the NYC individual members there is also about a 38% chance of 3" or less. Just pointing that out so I don't give the impression I'm over hyping anything. There are a number of low / very low members in there as well.

18Z individual members for NYC. Good amount of "big ones" in there. There is upside potential if the 500 can close off a little further to the south and southwest.

The EURO 500 MB mean is just a hair away from something spectacular even for the west of I95er's. Hope we can get some backup from GFS and CMC over the next several hours.

Prob for 6, 12 and 18" have all expanded slightly N and W, not a lot but there was expansion. Have not seen individual members yet.

Just looking at probabilities and at quick glance they have blossomed a bit NW. Here are 18Z MEAN and CONTROL

I still favor the Euro over the GFS/CMC solutions. The EURO at 500 looks darn impressive, just not fast enough / far enough south to help western and northern areas of this forum. I think the upcoming 00Z and 12Z runs you are going to start to see a consensus form leaning more toward the Euro. Use liquid amounts at 12:1 for snowfall totals. Kuchera maps are just weather porn.

When I say ain't getting it done I mean for I95 N and W. Coastal sections still see meaningful event. Not the huge numbers of some prior runs for inland locations but nothing to sneeze at for coastal locations. Inland needs MAJOR improvements and that is not likely IMO. Still EURO against everything else along the the more coastal locations up into southeast New England.