MANDA

Not to at all diminish the death toll, one is too many but I think this will likely be the costliest hurricane to hit Florida. Populated area, slow moving and intense at landfall. Swath of flooding as it crossed the state and some very expensive real estate in the way. We'll see hot it goes but for certain will fall into the top 3.

I agree. Big sprawling ocean storm bumping up against strong high pressure aiding in keeping the winds up. No real change as far as impacts no matter what we call it but nothing tropical about this in my opinion.

Some incredible picture in this article / link. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11263749/Stunning-aerial-pics-reveal-deadly-hurricane-cut-swath-Florida.html

Absolutely - NO WAY! I'm with ya!

Agreed.

Convection building around the northern and eastern quadrants of the circulation, there was nothing there for most of the morning. A faster movement across FL and wider swing east over the gulf stream before heading to the north will given Ian the edge to reach low end Cat 1 status prior to SC landfall. As a side note it really is interesting how through most if not all of the track it has favored the right edge of the cone. Anyway radar and visible satellite not looking shabby. Increase in organization, good gradient between Ian and high to the north and baroclinic assistance will make for a gusty time of it over the NE FL, GA and SC coasts. Could be going post tropical around the time it approaches the coast with fronts near by.

As bad as some of these pictures are I don't think this is the worst of it. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11261707/Monster-Hurricane-Ian-devastates-Florida-leaving-2million-without-power-trapped-homes.html

Whats is left of the NW eye wall still not disappointing.

Totally agree and much of the wind will be generated by gradient between big high to the north and leftovers from Ian to the south. Only thing that will aid in surge and coastal flooding along GA/SC is fact that flow has been strong onshore last 24 hours + so water has already been piling up along the coast. Agree though, not much left core wise to organize. Combine that with shear and low DP air to the west. Gradient and some baroclinic assist is all we've got.

Horrible if true and avoidable if people would just follow evacuation orders. I hope this is not true.

11' in Charlotte Harbor???

They did luck out as far as surge. As "JM 1220" said the wind never aligned to push water up into the Harbor / Bay. So surge for that area was on the manageable side. Wind on the other hand was unrelenting as they were in the eye wall (NW eye wall especially) for a prolonged period. Like you said worse surge was from Boca Grande, Captiva, Sanibel on south to Fort Myers and Naples area. Big surge there.

Having to do it once is bad enough but twice you have to be a special kind of person. I personally could not imagine it. Having lived through Sandy up here was bad enough and that was nothing compared to this in my area away from the shore. Just froze in the dark for 9 days and I was about ready to lose my mind.

That NW eye wall is just unforgiving - hence the strong gusts over 120 mph still coming in. NW of the center is where you are going to see the worst wind damage. Southeast of and near the center is where storm surge damage will dominate. Not going to be pretty when dawn breaks tomorrow.

It did. I remember vividly it came out stronger and better looking than when it went in.

Power will be out for weeks or longer in some spots. Damage will be over a very wide area with major infrastructure destroyed in spots. Suspect some barrier islands will be uninhabitable for a while.

Entire eye almost completely inland now. Maybe another 15-30 min. NW eye wall still looking vicious. Western and southwestern eye wall still yet to move onshore. Should do so over the next 30-60 min and Boca Grande to Sanibel could take it on the chin again. Water still being pushed onshore south of the eye near Fort Myers.

Ian make second landfall on the mainland per TPC: Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 435 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN MAKES MAINLAND FLORIDA LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA NEAR PIRATE HARBOR... NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian has made landfall on the mainland southwest Florida peninsula just south of Punta Gorda near Pirate Harbor. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 145 mph (235 km/h). A WeatherSTEM station at the Cape Coral Fire Department recently reported a wind gust of 110 mph (177 km/h). A WeatherFlow station in Grove City on the western side of Charlotte Harbor reported a sustained wind of 85 mph (137 km/h) with a gust to 128 mph (206 km/h). SUMMARY OF 435 PM EDT...2035 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 82.0W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven/Papin/Bucci

Based on radar the entire eye should be inland over the next 60 min or so. TPC should be declaring a second landfall shortly near Lee and Charlotte County border. The NW eye wall looks absolutely vicious - roughly Englewood to Lake Suzy.

WPC scaled back slightly on northern edge in latest update. Still gets needed rainfall to L.I. We'll watch trends in the coming days. Going to be a sharp northern edge.

TPC should be declaring landfall shortly - happening now over Pine Island and shortly should be crossing onto mainland near Charlotte / Lee County border near Charlotte Harbor Preserve State Park.

Think TPC has a typo there. It can't be 20 miles west of both those locations.

Based on radar at 3:00 center of the eye looks to be right over northern end of Pine Island - near Pineland / Bokeelia on the northern end of the island.

Looks like Englewood, Murdock, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda and Lake Suzy are primed to get into the western and NW eye wall over next 30-90 minutes. Going to be bad. Fort Myers area in prime surge area they are getting lambasted by onshore flow and will continue to be for a while longer. Surge still rising there.

Going to be 2 - 4 weeks plus for many to get power back. Suspect lots of infrastructure damage.