MANDA

Yeah, exactly. Plot shows it well. Per radar they are raining themselves out in place and then new ones form. Places in NEPA are getting drenched. Not over a widespread area but there are locations that are going to end up with hefty totals and LOCAL flash flooding. We need to get storms to pop over NJ because the ones in NEPA are not destined to MOVE into NJ.

Yep and storm motion is slow. Places likely getting drenched.

Totally agree. At this point the hit and miss showers are not going to cut it. Fall coastal or tropical system will be what is needed to start reversing or fix in one fell swoop (if very wet TS) the negative rainfall departures. This pattern is not going to cut it. Only positive I see is if WAR remains dominate and westward enough is that any tropical system at least has a chance to affect the east coast either by coming up the coast of Gulf landfall and then remnants coming up along or east of the mountains. Nothing happening over the next 1-2 weeks that's for sure. Lets just hope the WAR can nose west enough to allow for that pathway down the road. All the clouds this morning are doing the atmosphere no favors in terms of instability today.

Old saying....When in drought leave it out. Meaning rain out of the forecast in longer range 3-5 day forecasts. This is a terrible pattern. Some will get lucky with heavier totals next 24-48 hours but not widespread and nothing that is going to end horrible dry spell for large portion of the area.

As well you shouldn't. My expectations are very low. The dryness is no joke at this point. Next several days look to offer nothing and ground will continue to dry. Tropics are shut down so we're not getting any potential help from there anytime soon. One big SAL burst after another on top of unfavorable MJO phases.

Beautiful picture ! Stunning!

I think the chances of any meaningful rainfall going forward today across NJ is very low. Not a good thing as rest of the week does not offer much. Parts of NJ are almost certainly going to bounce into D1 conditions this week or next.

This part of NJ has done very well recently! Had .04" here a little bit ago as fast moving shower moved through. Expectations for rest of the day are low. SPS says 80% chance watch box will be issued for parts of NNJ into SNE. Think anything will be very localized.

Nasty out there. DP's will get mixed out some as we progress through the afternoon but for sure one of our more uncomfortable days in progress. Worse combination of temperature and DP I ever felt around here was the July Heatwave of 1995. Felt nothing like that before or since. It was just suffocating. Anyone remember that? Was incredibly deadly in the Mid-West. Combination of T and DP out there was as extreme as it has ever been. So while hot now for sure we're a ways from that brutal heat.

Will be interesting to see some of totals come tomorrow morning. Especially over parts of Sussex County NJ and NE NJ and parts of L.I. There were parts of Sussex County that had 2-3" totals as of 8:00 this morning and from the looks of radar some of the same areas have been soaked a few times since then. NE NJ and parts of L.I. have also been hit several times with torrential downpours. Worst of it so far has gone around my location. Had .44" period ending 8:00 this morning and another .60" since then. That on top of the .25" Sunday morning. Just enough but not too much. All going to good use instead of rapid runoff. Short soakings.

Heat index readings SNJ just nasty. Air mass is juiced that is for sure. DP's mid to some upper 70's. About the upper end of what we see around here.

Total was .77". I'll take it and run!

Did well here. Hail pea to some marble size. Winds gusts to est. 40 mph. Not enough hail to coat the ground but hail nonetheless. Did not go out to read the gauge but has to be .50" to .75" based on how hard it rained for roughly 20 min. Will check total in the morning. Thunder and lightning was minimal.

Fell apart and the leftovers went just to my south. Oh well. This was probably my last shot at something "decent" for 3-5 days.

I'll take anything at this point. I hope this holds together!

12:45 and have been in the parting snow band for about 30 min with moderate to heavy snow and NEAR blizzard conditions. Current temp 25.5 with vis about 1/4 mi, sometimes a little lower when wind gusts. As of noon 2.5". Tough to measure with the wind. Will measure once this band exits but believe up to near or a tad over 3" now.

9:30 - Vis 1/4 mi S/BS small fine flakes but lots of them 29.3 degrees. Everything including pavement and concrete accumulating.

Yes, my neighborhood rises sharply to north of Rt. 80 and that elevation helps in events like this. Was the same earlier this past week.

8:00 a.m. - 37 degrees with light to moderate rain. 8:20 a.m. - 33 degrees with sleet and rain mixed. 8:30 a.m. - 32 degrees light to moderate snow 9:00 a.m. - 29 degrees with light to moderate snow. Accumulating on everything but pavement and concrete but just starting to stick on those surfaces now. Winds gusty!

https://www.cocorahs.org/

Early look at some snow totals off CoCoRaHs

Heavy / intense band holding along NJ beaches but making no progress westward to the GSP. All east of the GSP for the intense rates. Radar continues slow shrink NW NJ. Just s-- here. Likely will finish with about 2.5". Will measure at 8:00. Had 2.2" about hour or so ago.

Walt, good to see you back. Everyone has missed you last several days!

Report from buddy in Toms River....12" as of a few min ago.

Not sure about 24"...but 18" seems certain for locations near and east of GSP. Band not making additional westward progress.