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MANDA

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Everything posted by MANDA

  1. MANDA
    Don- Thanks for all your great stats. Do you have an updated winter ratter chart as of today? Just wondering if NYC bumped up a position from the last time you posted? Just wondering what it will be before and after the coming event. Thanks.
  2. MANDA
    Has got to be some cutting of the totals by NWS at some point for along and north of Rt. 80. I don't see their current forecast of 8-10, 10-14 verifying along and north of 80 and west of 287. I'm thinking 4 to maybe as much as 6 for my area and the 6" is a MAYBE. Not liking the current trends for more than 6" up this way.
  3. MANDA
    I was in Manhattan for the April 1982 storm. It stuck on the roads and temperatures the day before was I believe were in the low 50's. Granted during the event temperatures fell into the m/u 20's, that is a big difference compared to 32-34 tomorrow. Late morning into early afternoon would have done late January or early February proud. Heavy snow with thunder and lightning and intense rates of fall got the job done. Also, that storm was not that different than this. Bombing low off Del-Mar-Va moving NE to near BM. If I recall correctly CNJ had much less than CP and SNJ had little to none. Guess my point is that if temperature can fall to 32 and you get 1-2" rates for a while it will stick to the roads but it has to snow HARD.
  4. MANDA
    Would also have been much better if decent cold air was in place and more was readily available to be tapped. We're really relying on dynamic cooling especially more eastern parts of the forum. Still going with 2-4" for my location with 6" or 6"+ for NW Sussex county on north and east. We'll see soon enough.
  5. MANDA
    My thinking best chances for 2-4" starts along I80 and west of 287 for the NJ crew. First call for my area 2 to perhaps as much as 4". Thinking 1/2" to 1" of slop NYC/LI and immediate NJ burbs EWR area. 1-2" interior NE NJ. Subject to some adjustment but not envisioning 6" or more outside of NW Sussex on north and east from there.
  6. MANDA
  7. MANDA
    Totally agree. Is terrible for ski areas though as you said.
  8. MANDA
    Helluva winter for sure!
  9. MANDA
    Off topic for this forum but a nice wintry scene up in Barrow this afternoon. Check out the drifting.
  10. MANDA
    I read your post and how to go check to see if it was who I thought it was. It was. This person has really gone off the deep end last several years. Shame. Lindsey Storm
  11. MANDA
    Pathetic.
  12. MANDA
    53 pages on the 8th of the month and no snow or cold to show for it so far. I know full well that is what was expected but that is a lot of "chit chat" over a pending pattern change. Keep calm and carry on.
  13. MANDA
    Was going to guess once in a 500 year return. Wow, that is really impressive. Thanks!
  14. MANDA
    Wonder what the return period is for totals like that? Any Idea Don? Any records set with that total? Single storm? Month?
  15. MANDA
    In cases like this (and for most of the events so far this season for that matter) they should be. Far better in marginal situations than 10:1 maps / Kuchera. It situations like this those 10:1 maps are pure folly and you are only setting yourself up for disappointment. To each his own I guess.
  16. MANDA
    No confidence in a 360 hour prog, even if ensemble. I do like the elongated TPV though. That WNW lobe from NW Hudson Bay into the NWT is ripe to come plunging southeast (and possibly phase) if the western ridge pumps. That is the way you could do something big. Like I said though 360 hours out....need this look to persist as we move forward in time. Like the look but too far out for more than passing interest from me at this point. Plenty frigid in central and northern Canada so cold air is there to be tapped if everything were to fall into place. Would modify more than usual with bare U.S. ground and warm lakes but could turn very cold (at least 1 shot of it) if things fall into place.
  17. MANDA
    Based on what I'm seeing so far I'd have to give the nod to below normal snowfall for February. Developing pattern favors keeping us on the colder side of normal for second half of the month but IMO not near cold enough to wipe out the warmth of the first half.
  18. MANDA
    I'll bet the farm that February finishes above normal by at least 2 degrees.
  19. MANDA
    12" at least...preferably 18".
  20. MANDA
    Imagine if we had an outbreak like that one in 1996 today! Climate doing what climate does....changing always.
  21. MANDA
    I'll take cluster 3 for the win. Cluster 2 for the consolation prize.
  22. MANDA
    Colder I'm on board with but to use Major Snowstorm "likely"....seems a bit aggressive to me at this point.
  23. MANDA
    Can still get very meaningful cold in February but you are 100% correct that the lack of ice on the Great Lakes + late February sun angle + possibility of bare ground upstream will certainly temper what could have been if the lakes were ice covered and some snow was on the ground. Sun angle we can't help.
  24. MANDA
    Yep, as the block moves more east that is when the torch fires. That is when the big warm departures will make their mark on first half of February. Hopefully we can get back to around normal by the 15th. and then get colder from there. Not at all likely any cold mid and late month will wipe out the positive departures from the first half of the month. Also, unless February is unusually stormy we should finish near or below normal in the precipitation department.
  25. MANDA
    That is one blocked up upper air pattern. Going to take a while to get the train moving again. Going to be a real snoozer next 10-14 days, as per guidance. Then we'll see what happens. I'm pretty convinced of a period of BN temps from 2/15 - 2/20 or thereabouts. How much beyond that? Does the pattern produce for meaningful snow, 6"+ forum wide? It could but it doesn't have to. Patterns like the one that is forecast for mid / late month have failed to produce more so than not last year and this. At least something to watch with interest over the next two weeks to see how it develops. In the meantime it will give the ground a chance to dry out around here. Be thankful the block has setup the way it did. Any further east we would really warm up, as it is we'll be in a NW flow of at least cool / chilly air with cold nights and daytime temperatures not truly torching. Any further west would have kept us in a cloudy, raw and damp pattern.
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