MANDA

Latest visible loop since sunrise really shows LLC out racing convection. Should be interesting disco from TPC at 11am. If this trend continues today going to be hard for this to survive unless new center somehow can redevelop under the deeper convection.

First visible pictures of the day show the convection is ALMOST entirely east of the center of circulation. Vortex is ALMOST a naked swirl. Between the shear and dry air Fiona is going to have a hard battle to hold in a steady state next 2-3 days. I would expect no additional intensification over the next 48 hours at least. Intensity will have impact on the track. Weaker and more sheared system will track more westward and stay nearer or over the islands. If vortex can maintain itself under the deeper convection then Fiona could intensify some and a more vertically stacked system will tend to get tugged more poleward and track north of PR and DR/Haiti. I'm leaning SLIGHTLY toward a more north of the islands track. If system can get to the SW Atlantic with an intact vortex conditions will become more favorable for development down the road. In the short term though Fiona is going to have to fight hard against shear and dry air. Hard to believe a storm in this position at the peak of the season is battling this much shear and dry air. Just goes to show you that conditions that have been present all season so far are still there. The MDR region and deep tropics are not really favorable for robust development this year. Edit: Just wanted to add will have to see if this completely decouples today. It is possible although shear does not seem all that severe. If it does decouple the future of the system becomes highly uncertain. As of now I'm thinking not but it is possible.

Agree with everything except water is not all that "cold" off MA and NE at the moment. Anything that did try to make it up to New England on a track like that with an upper air setup like that would stand a far better chance than usual to be a headline maker. Especially if it were hauling along at 30-40 mph. That being said this will change 20 different times on the next 20 GFS runs. Fantasy land at this point. If there were model consistency in the days ahead and other models start showing something similar than maybe I'd pay more attention. For now nothing more than grist for the mill.

T-Storms not likely as upper ridge will be overhead. Going to take some time to get meaningful rainfall for locations in this forum. Will be 10 days at least.

.59" for part one of the rainfall event at this location. Slow and gentle periods of rain yesterday for most of the day. All of it was able to soak in.

Up to .26" here as of 1:30.

Nice NJ Summary of August and Summer 2022 for NJ : https://www.njweather.org/

Three day total here = 2.53". Had .63" last 24 hours from steady light rain, mist and drizzle.

1.9" so far at my location. .98" as of 8am yesterday. Dry all day yesterday into the evening. Another .92" in the gauge this morning. All rainfall went to productive use. Slow and steady rate of fall. No tremendous deluge with mostly runoff. Based on radar some additional rain to come today.

For my area of NJ I'll be happy if EURO comes close to verification. Anything less than 2" and I'll be grossly disappointed. Very slow moving in that is for sure. Daylight hours today for majority of NJ, except far NW will end up being dry. Was expecting much more shower activity today than what has verified so far. Need rain badly but not nearly as bad as south shore LI, you guys have just been in the worst of the dryness.

Most interested in the new AEW. Low latitude. Earl easily kicking up some EC surf. 20/50 likely to curve out and very low chance something in GOM. We'll see but no matter what Danielle and Earl adding to ACE.

No rainfall yet here today. Was not far away just to my north. Hoping for at least .25" - .50" overnight to prime the soil so to speak. New batch of showers blossoming on radar over eastern PA and moving slowly ENE. Nothing imminent for my area but hopefully something can meander through overnight.

So far the 12Z guidance is supporting a nice soaking for majority of this forum. Only the 12K NAM is displaced to the south over CNJ/SNJ with axis of heaviest totals. Rest of guidance is north of there over CNJ/NNJ and out over L.I. Canadian especially shows hefty totals across the forum. I'd be happy with 2" over a 24 hour period. Don't need the excessive totals as some of that would likely be wasted on runoff, especially with the rock hard and parched soils.

Exactly. What a joke that was.

12Z EURO clearly aiming the fire hose of moisture / rainfall north of this forum. It does have .50 - 1" totals for most of the forum but stand by because if the bulk of the moisture / rainfall does track from south central PA northeastward into central New England the totals over our area could be overdone. Ways to go and this could sink south some. Even HPC has cut amounts from 12Z issuance over our area. Still some time but not overly optimistic for the heavier totals we so badly need.

Agree. This is not a done deal where we all do the happy dance in celebration of rainfall just yet. We'll see what EURO shows shortly but may take until 00Z Sunday runs to hone in on this POTENTIAL event. I agree though, nervous we miss most of it to the north.

We can only hope. If persistence has anything to say about it this will be much reduced on future runs. Time will tell but lately dry begets dry and warmth.

Feel bad for you. Those are horrendous totals. Have to wonder how far back do you have to go to get anything like that? My totals are good compared to yours. .09" 1.49" 3.84"

Had my rainfall for the day. Sixty second heavy shower that dropped .02". Radar says I'm all but done. Next.

Already showing signs of peaking. Doubt much is left by 8:00 or so. NJ counties that border PA stand best chance at something meaningful. Maybe some .50" amounts there. Elsewhere .25" or less I think.

Yeah, if only. The model is questionable days 3 to 5 and useless beyond day 5 in my opinion. It flops around like a fish out of water. That solution is so far fetched it is laughable. Why anyone looks at it beyond day 5 is beyond me. Even at day 3 to 5 I only use it to compare to the superior Euro and CMC. It is a follower not a leader.

And the naming Colin was an absolute joke.

As bad as that is for this forum it is so much worse for eastern New England. Even beyond 7 days no real sign of significant pattern change to seasonable and wetter. Brutal.

Euro 12Z EPS offers modest support to the op solution at day 10. Worth watching with not much else going on. Water is bathtub warm off the east coast and has been untouched so far this season. Assuming atmospheric conditions are favorable this would have some potential. System seeding this 10 day feature has persisted for 24-36 hours now. We'll see. High pressure would appear to be entrenched north of feature so if it can get going some reasonable expectation of the southeast U.S. threat. Ten days away but gaining some model support last few cycles.

With nothing else to hang our hats or anticipations on the Euro at day 10 and some of its ensembles from 00Z, have not seen 12Z yet have a tropical system near the Bahamas on day 10. High pressure aloft is entrenched to the north so some semblance of U.S. threat is possible down the road. Long ways off but with absolutely nothing else going on might as well find something on the maps of interest.