MANDA

Agreed. Not ruling out the development just not buying into the Texas landfall. One thing for sure is that if atmospheric conditions are favorable this potential system will be traversing some of the deepest and warmest water in the basin. High end system certainly in play assuming the wave gets going in the first place.

Three day totals up to 20" near Ponce. Large data void over mid part of the island where in theory some of the heaviest rainfall would have been enhanced by orographic lift but map does show how heavy some totals have been.

Wind gust swath on Euro is bad enough but at least max stays west of Bermuda. GFS not so much - shows RFQ potentially directly impacting Bermuda. Going to be a close call. My bets are on a closer approach than the EURO shows.

Storm chaser Brett Adair posted video (see link) from just west of Ponce. Looks every bit and then some like a Cat 1. Impressive flying debris. https://twitter.com/i/status/1571567670163607552

Yeah, looking bad with much more rain to come from the looks of the latest radar. Bad situation.

Yes, sorry. I was focusing on CONUS. Should have been more clear about that. I totally agree PR is in for a rough go with extremely heavy rains, potential mudslides and flooding as Fiona moves slowly over / past the island. Just hard to envision potential landfalls for the balance of the season for the CONUS coming out of the MDR of the Atlantic or CV type systems. Believe any potential threat would come from a system lifting north out of the Caribbean / Bay of Campeche / GOM. Not ruling out something landfalling on CONUS from Caribbean or GOM just yet. Fiona will rack up ACE but there does not seem to be much behind her in the pipeline at the moment.

Only thing to impede it over the next 24 hours is proximity to PR. Once it clears PR and DR to the north it should be off to the races but yes it continues on the upswing.

Not sure why this post was given the "weenie" - I like to know from "NCsandhills" what he finds confusing or out of line.

Took 24 hours after it started to look impressive on satellite imagery yesterday. You knew this was coming.

Now that Fiona is a done deal as far as a U.S. hit I think we can close the lid on a miserable CV season. Any potential threats to the U.S. are going to have to come from a system lifting north out of the Caribbean / Gulf at this point. Not giving up on that chance just yet. Fiona has organized significantly over the last 24 hours and seems destined to reach hurricane status and maybe major hurricane status as it exits into the SW Atlantic over the next couple of days and heads out in general direction of Bermuda. This season is going to bust hard for anyone that was calling for big numbers and land impacts. Very surprising based on what the pattern looked like going into the season. Solid La Nina, SST that were at least normal, if not above in the MDR and some healthy waves emerging off Africa. Shear and dry air just put an end to the MDR season before it began. Even the Caribbean and GOM could not produce. We'll see what happens over the next 4 weeks. After that can't count on much.

Stunning pictures! Absolutely beautiful!

Structure continues to improve. This is going to pass over western Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. Thinking very little or no passage over DR. Maybe center skirts the NE coast of DR. Certainly all the morning guidance is unanimous with fishing trip. Window for east coast threat has closed. Incoming mid week trof is just too strong. Fiona is going out. Seems as though any chance of U.S. landfall this season is going to have to come from Caribbean. Pattern just not going to allow for anything moving westward over the Atlantic to come close. Still not giving up on something from the Caribbean moving northward into the GOM or up nearer the east coast as we go into October. I think September chances are about done.

What a snooze fest coming up. Guess we can look forward to the late week CF and associated cool down and taste of Fall but other than that not much going on. Fiona looks like a done deal except for Canadian Maritime provinces...maybe. Satellite pictures mid and late week should be nice to look at as I think this goes to solid cat 3, maybe a bit more. Not much else to find interest in weather wise over the next 1 - 2 weeks.

It is organizing and the overall structure with developing outflow looks impressive. Let's give this 12 hours and see where this goes but it is in a developing and re-organizing phase for sure. Shear much reduced over last several days. Fiona is on her way to hurricane status! We've not seen a satellite picture look this good in the deep tropics all season - nothing even close.

Watching satellite last few hours looks like outflow is becoming established, especially to the north and east. No doubt in my mind Fiona is getting better organized and aligned. Satellite shows a developing hurricane in my opinion.

With Fiona likely heading out to sea how much longer will the current dry spell last? Certainly nothing meaningful over the next 7 days. Could be make it though the rest of September will only minimal rainfall <.50"? I'd say it is possible to get close. Maybe the closing 2-4 days can deliver something? Certainly not seeing it before that.

Based on morning visible and IR satellite and latest recon data Fiona is clearly getting her act together. Assuming this trend continues and I expect it will Fiona will become more vertically stacked and less subject to the low level flow. Based on a more vertically stacked system the turn to the WNW then NW over the next few days is becoming very likely. Depending on how fast it continues to organize it could turn sooner than later and possibly even pass over the Mona Passage or western PR. Conditions over the SW Atlantic are going to be quite favorable and the water is untouched so far this season and is very warm. Fiona has excellent chance to eventually become a major hurricane by mid to late next week. Odds increasing that with a stronger system the major trof coming east later this week will catch her and take her out. Various ensemble members (the weakest ones) take her more westward toward the SE coast but based on current trends this is becoming unlikely. Still have to keep an eye to make sure current trends hold but this is not looking like an east coast threat. Morning satellite pictures show a more symmetric and organizing tropical cyclone. Puerto Rico looks to be next in line for some excessive rainfall and flooding - especially since Fiona will be moving slowly as she goes near or over the island. Best looking system so far this season at that latitude by far.

Very intense convective blowup right near the center with very cold cloud tops -70 / -80. Looks like Guadalupe is going to get nailed with very heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the next several hours. NE part of the island is already under the very intense convection. Interesting.

Convection once again trying to get going around the LLC. Shear must less pronounced than yesterday. Motion today has been pretty much straight west. I'm not writing this off as a U.S. impact threat until it crosses over the islands. Exactly when and where that will take place is open to question in my mind. No doubt there looks to be an impressive trof swinging through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic mid to late next week. I'm not sold on that trof picking this up just yet. We'll see but for now convection trying to get going once again around the LLC.

Looking at latest visible loop the center is almost entirely exposed again. Recent short term motion is due west, maybe even a VERY SLIGHT just south of due west is last few images. My thinking is this ends up tracking more on the south side of the TPC cone. Until it can get better vertically stacked the general motion is going to be more west than anything. Also agree with others that this is not going to emerge into the SW Atlantic and immediately start to intensify. While all the 12Z data so far (EURO pending) wants to go fishing I'm still not sold until I see where and what condition this emerges from the Greater Antilles. I will say LR guidance does seem to have several S/W trofs in the pipeline so this may well go fishing I'm just not sure which trof gets it. Still possible ridge builds over top to send it back to the coast for a time but that chance is less likely as of today.

First short visible loop on the day still shows a sheared system but much better than when the sun set yesterday. Bursting convection is now on the eastern edge of the circulation. If that trend can continue today and I think it will then Fiona has better chance to strengthen as it enters the NE Caribbean tomorrow. All in all I think Fiona looks better than I would have expected this morning. The longer she keeps on a west or slightly south of due west course the better the chances of intensification over the Caribbean and a later turn to the NW down the road. The later the turn to the WNW and NW the better the odds of impacting the U.S. down the road. Not out of the question just yet in my mind. Movement next 24 hours more west than anything. Not expecting much if any additional loss in latitude today.

Overnight low of 47 here. Per NJWXNET 38 Sandyston and numerous readings in the low 40's NW NJ with mid 40's interior CNJ. Nice cool crisp morning. Looks very dry and very warm for most of next week. Was some easing of drought conditions on Drought Monitor released yesterday but any further progress will be stalled for a while.

Very intense convective blowup centered near 16N - 53W with overshooting cloud tops. Will be interesting to see if new LLC develops near this burst overnight. IF it does there will need to be some relocation of the center perhaps by tomorrow morning? LL vortex is now well removed to the east of this convective burst.

Based on the visible loop during the course of today the LLC continues to pull away from the deep convection. The LLC is now fully exposed and decoupled from mid level vortex. Fiona will have to re-establish a LLC back under the deep convection. Going to be hard to keep this going if it does not do that. Forget all the long term tracks the main question is what does this do over the next 24-48 hours. It its current state the westward motion is going to continue. Will have to pull together rather quickly tomorrow and Saturday to get this to pass north of PR and DR/Haiti a solution I'm losing confidence in. Shaky situation unless LLC gets going under the deep convection.

Have a hard time envisioning the rather sharp turn to the NW in latest TPC outlook UNLESS system becomes more vertically stacked before then. Questionable. I have a feeling they are going more on persistence and continuity to their prior tracks. I think 12Z guidance is going to show some shifts and we'll see what LLC/convection looks like by this evening. Tricky forecast on the longer range solutions for Fiona...IMO.