MANDA

10m wind gust swath (usually overdone) is impressive. Even if you chop it by 10-15% it is still impressive and on that track verbatim (likely some adjustments will be made on future model runs) would send impressive surge into Tampa Bay. Will see what EPS offers in terms of track over the next 90 min or so. Additional soundings going into the models over the next many cycles should start to tighten up the track. Especially by tomorrow evening once a cohesive vortex has become established.

Sorry, I didn't mean anything negative by my post. Was just pointing out in a round about way I guess, that things seemed to be going according to plan as far as Ian pulling together. Apologies.

See what you think 24 hours from now. That is when it is and was expected to be more rapidly organizing. Development prior to tomorrow morning was expected to be slow.

Inching NW up the west coast of FL with forecast landfall. Question is: Is it done nudging NW? This track verbatim is worst case for Tampa Bay area. That track would maximize surge. Can see an additional nudge or two in future advisories but would not expect landfall further west than 85W. Said yesterday morning eastern FL panhandle to Keys was in play. This morning I'd say landfall 50-100 miles either side of Tampa. We'll see. This track would also maximize intensity as long as it keeps moving at reasonable clip and does not start ingesting drier air. This track also delays landfall to early Thursday.

You said it and once that pulls together this should be off and running. Very favorable environment and very favorable water temps.

Can't imagine what conditions will be like out on that island tonight into early tomorrow. Amazing stuff.

For certain the exposed LLC is not the "one". New one under the convection will be the one that gets the job done over the next 24-36 hours. Going to be another 24-36 hours for entire TD to clear the she shear zone but once it does it will get down to business rather quickly.

Yes. Typo....sorry. For sure convection is WEST of the exposed LLC.

Regardless if the 929 mb is too low and it likely is it will be quite a show up there. Suspect there will be power outages for 2 weeks or more over parts of Atlantic Canada....not fun.

6Z Tropical models clustering on SW Florida. Some robust intensity forecasts in there. Based on individual tracks from various models the stronger ones are the ones that go over western Cuba / nearer the Yucatan Channel then curve NE toward FL. Weaker ones are the ones that track further east over Cuba with just a short time back over water before impacting SW Florida. Still details to be determined. Do keep in mind Charley exploded in the hours just prior to landfall and TPC was playing "catch up" in real time as Charley was closing in on SW Florida. Charley was not forecast to be that strong 24-36 hours prior to landfall and was also forecast to go in further north up the FL west coast. Charley was also a tight and compact hurricane. Hermine will not be tight and compact...not sprawling but not small and compact.

First visible pictures of the day show all of the robust, deep and cold (near -80C cloud tops) convection east of the exposed LLC. Have to believe new LLC will develop under the deep convection over the next 24 hours. Where this ends up consolidating next 24-36 hours after it exits the shear zone will be a determining factor on eventual track. Stay tuned.

Pressure gradient between high to the north and Hermine to the south would create vast onshore flow at a minimum (assuming the OP EURO is onto something with track up coast) with above normal tides and coastal flooding up to SNE.

Slight shift west from 12Z EPS. One more nudge and east coast (north of Florida) threat may be realized. Realized to at least the point of a heavy rain event. Intensity overall yet TBD on any treck northward, but no matter there was a nudge west from 12Z EPS. With system now organizing model guidance should start to hone in on a solution over the next 36-48 hours. Target area in my mind for landfall is SW Florida up to extreme eastern panhandle. Door has closed for landfall further west along the AL/MS/LA coast. Intensity is going to have a lot to do with interaction with digging trof and forward speed. Also at what point does it interact with Cuba. Further west track with minimal interaction will make for a stronger system. Conditions are favorable and water is as warm as it gets over the NW Caribbean. I do think a slower movement toward a FL landfall is in the cards so I believe it will be coming in off peak but that is by no means a certainty. Residents along the west coast of FL from the Keys to the eastern panhandle should keep a watchful eye on this.

Just .31" for the event here. UNLESS moisture from 98L eventually gets up here will be dry over the next 7 days with sprawling high pressure over the area. All will hinge on what track 98L eventually takes.

Shift this ensemble package west by 100 to 150 miles and you've got a big rainmaker in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I think an eastern FL Panhandle potential is still in play but have to watch next 2-4 12Z and 00Z cycles for a shift either west or east. I believe western FL Panhandle on westward and Yucatan landfalls are outlier options at this point.

At this point I'm about ready to dismiss a landfall any further west than the eastern FL Panhandle. I"m riding the EURO train here. It does fairly well in situations like this. I'd feel better if we had a well developed TD or TS rather than expected genesis. If the EURO does something like this track again tonight and again tomorrow I'd say we are coming to a believable solution. For what it is worth WPC keeps all moisture out of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic next 7 days and implied beyond that. Still not at a final solution yet but I think the western ones should start to be thought of as outliers.

Still a long ways to go with this and final outcome is days away. Just as an aside though. IF the CMC is correct with temperatures in the 50's in parts of SC it could make for an interesting overrunning situation for parts of the SE and POSSIBLY Mid-Atlantic as warm, very moist tropical air gets lifted over the cooler air mass. Big high to the north with vast onshore flow so not out of the question that an excessive rain event develops somewhere along or east of the mountains depending on eventual track.

Received .06" from FAST moving T-Shower. A few very loud booms of thunder and some vivid flashed of lightning. The sound and light show was more impressive than the rain total that's for sure. In and out in 2-3minutes around 6:30.

Agreed. Best chances not until approaching western third of Caribbean. System will have lots of latitude to gain to make it cleanly through the Yucatan Channel. Honestly the only sure thing is it likely doing little next 2 - 3 days. Everything past that is conjecture to say the least. Interesting to track and follow but any model solution past 3 days at this point should be taken as "hmmmm, interesting". Personally I'd favor the more southern model tracks through the Caribbean as of now due mainly to low latitude starting point and northerly shear being produced by Fiona. Upper ridge building in wake of Fiona should prevent this from gaining latitude in the near term and also aid in keeping it on a more westward track.

Convection with potential GOM threat this is currently located east of the islands is looking robust this morning. Fairly far south but quite robust. Three major global models (GFS/Canadian/EURO) are all developing this wave once to the central and western Caribbean. All three models showing something 4-6 days out is something we've not seen in the tropics so far this season. Climo favors more central / western Caribbean development this time of year so that combined with models showing little development before then suggests system will only slowly organize for the balance of the week. Assuming it does and assuming atmospheric conditions are favorable once system reaches the western Caribbean it will be passing over the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic Basin. Potential is there for something noteworthy. That says nothing though to what potential intensity would be at any potential U.S. landfall. That will depend on many things. Something to watch for sure though with the good model genesis agreement down the road. Any CONUS U.S. threats for the rest of the season are going to have to come from a system like this - i.e. lifting north from Caribbean / GOM. Classic CV threats are over for this season.

Received .25" here late afternoon. Feel in about 5 min.

VIS & IR satellite continue to show an intensifying hurricane. Some modest shear on the western side otherwise it is ventilating quite well in all other quadrants. Classic signature of hurricane heading toward major status. Trof / upper low to the east and northeast is doing an excellent job of ventilating Fiona. Pretty classic signature really.

Gusty T-shower underway here. Moving quickly based on radar so not expecting much in the way of rainfall.

That high level outflow / anticyclone is very impressive look. Fiona is gonna "go" once she fully clears land. Upper level outflow almost has that classic "atmospheric sink" look to it.

Held up extremely well with passage over PR and extreme eastern DR. Satellite VIS and IR very impressive and shows a system that continues to develop. Little doubt this reaches Cat 3. Interesting thing is Danielle, Earl and Fiona all will have reached their peak intensity outside of the deep tropics.