MANDA

Closer in look through 12Z Wed. EURO and GFS clearly aligned for a wetter solution for most of this forum. It will be most welcome for the south shore LI crew if it works out. Chances certainly have gone up for something decent over the last 12 hours.

Yep, entirely different animal than it coming to the Northern Gulf coast ingesting dry air. Much more classic scenario and favorable conditions for a major landfall. Not good. EURO track verbatim coming in near or a tad north of Charlotte Harbor would bring terrible surge and wind damage. Like Charley but over a much wider area.

Only way out is for landfall Marco Island on South. Anything north of there is going to inflict much damage and hurt. Not sure that Marco Island on south can be pulled off at this point.

Based on current trends (models, satellite and radar) I think the furthest north Ian landfalls is Venice. Most likely landfall IMO between Port Charlotte and Naples. Clearly looks to me to be moving NNE. It is feeling the trough. Barring an ERC (not something that can be forecast) looks to landfall as a strong 3 to possibly low 4? Satellite presentation is extremely impressive. Obviously conditions will be the worst near and to the right of landfall location but it is going to be bad over a large area of coastline. Some areas between Venice and Naples are very surge prone.

Looking great. Satellite presentation is super impressive. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop120.html

This would be so welcome if it is real. Based on trends with Ian this morning I think the chances for decent rainfall reaching into this forum have increased over the last 12 hours. We'll see what future trends show. Way to early to lock in these amounts but encouraging to see.

That plainly says to me that another nudge to the right is coming with the 5pm advisory. Little doubt in my mind about that.

Took a little longer to get going early on but Ian has not disappointed over the last 12-18 hours. Atmosphere was primed for this to happen and SST ideal. Once it got vertically aligned off it went.

TPC has once again nudged right with 11am advisory. This is coming in south of Tampa. In fact they have lowed the surge forecast for Tampa Bay and increased it to 8-12' further south. Surge disaster for Tampa Bay is off the table in my opinion. Still noteworthy and potentially damaging but not the disaster it could have been. This further south lnadfall also means Ian could be coming in near or just below peak intensity as water is warm and "shear damage" will be more negligible. Only an ERC could change intensity significantly before landfall but that would also expand the wind field so not sure that is best scenario. Heavy to excessive rainfall along the path. Only saving grace for wind damage for FL east coast will be slow movement and winds should fall off so that sustained hurricane force winds should not be felt on the east coast expect maybe in a few gusts. Tampa disaster averted but going to be BAD further south over a much larger area than Charley in 2004. Also think it is possible this gets another nudge or two to the right in coming TPC advisories. The southeast trend probably not quite done.

Floyd was another great example over NJ. Lived through that and it was a disaster over parts of NNJ. Floyd itself was a shell of itself with is arrived up into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Parts of NNJ had up to 12" rainfall.

I hope the 1/2" makes it that far north. Questionable in my mind. Hopefully it does especially for the sake of those on the south shore of L.I. who have been long suffering and screwed over at nearly every turn over the last several months. Fingers crossed.

Looking better for Tampa and immediate vicinity this morning in terms of avoiding worst possible storm surge. Huge difference center going near or north vs. off to the south. Means difference of water getting pushed into the bay or being blown out. Let's hope recent trends hold and center crosses south of Tampa. IMO that is likely based on recent model trends. Trends over the last few days in fact have been indicating a gradual nudge to the right and TPC has been on top of it with advisories being nudged eastward with each issuance. Heavy to excessive rainfall still going to be an issue for a large part of Florida peninsula. Of course one persons gain is another ones loss. The track further south means the ante is upped in terms of a stronger landfall, perhaps near or just off peak. There is going to be a 9-12' surge for someone.

TPC has again nudged the track a little to the right. Looks to me as if they are calling for landfall very near or just north of Tampa. If that track is realized the slow movement to me implies about 24 hours of water piling into Tampa Bay being pushed along by 80-100 mph winds. That in addition to water piling up before that 24 hour period. If that track is realized it is going to be a bad scene up into Tampa Bay. Current surge forecast is 5-10 feet. Would not be surprised if that forecast was increased depending how things evolve over the coming 18-24 hours. Satellite has been becoming more impressive every hour during the day today. Exact track and intensity very important to exactly how bad it gets in an around Tampa. Seems to me the best chance for Tampa to avoid the absolute worst would be for this to cross the coast and come in to their south...i.e. like the 18Z Icon. A distance of 10-20 miles will make a big difference.

All signs point to dry weather pattern into next week. Any remnant moisture from Ida looks to get squeezed out to the south of NJ. Maybe SNJ gets something meaningful (1-2") but not even sure about that. Just can't seem to get the tables to turn to get the Northeast into a wetter pattern.

So agreed. That is about as close as you could have come to a disaster and have avoided it. Someday it will happen but was not to be with Dorian. As storm like Dorian moving east to west toward a south Florida major metro would be epic disaster.

Tampa is about the latitude where conditions are going to become rapidly unfavorable to maintain a strong hurricane. Intensity will fall off quickly north of Tampa Latitude - especially with very slow movement. Satellite presentation is going to degrade quickly once past about 28N.

Exactly. Until that starts to correct TPC track adjustments will be minor. Also, Tampa still fully in the "cone" any tug to the right, by even 15-20 miles will put Tampa under the gun for the worst of the surge. Not over by a long shot for serious surge flooding into Tampa Bay. For Tampa to experience the worst possible surge the center would need to cross the coast just north of the metro area. Angle of approach also important and we're not likely to see the worst case scenario as far as that goes. Ian will be moving NNE approaching Tampa as opposed to worst case NE or ENE. Makes a big difference. Also Ian moving slowly so any wind trajectory the keeps winds coming up into the bay will be for rather long duration. Delicate situation and not fully resolved yet IMO.

Just .07" here. Glad some you you L.I. folks got something - much needed and well deserved.

So at 5pm it is nudged a little to the right by 15-20 miles. Peak intensity the same as 11am advisory and maybe a bit stronger as it nears landfall. Track will make big difference on intensity at landfall. If it hugs right side of cone stronger - hugs left side weaker. Gut feeling is another nudge or two eastward over the next few cycles.

Have to agree. Was expecting better looking than this by Sunday evening. Overall structure looking better on last visible pictures of the day. Outflow only restricted on the western side. No organization to the convection but it is trying hard. Based on 12Z guidance would expect TPC 5 pm advisory to leave cone in place from 11am. If any adjustment I think it would be slightly to the right in a nod to the persistent UKMET and especially EURO that have really not budged. Intensity forecast should also likely stay the same or perhaps come down a notch. Most of the latest guidance still has Ian peaking in the 125 to 140 mph before weakening as it approaches landfall.

Not wavering at all. Be wary on intensity though. Intensity still holy grail of hurricane forecasting. Conditions on that track would be favorable for something stronger. Not saying EURO is wrong but there is upside potential on a track coming in around or south of Tampa. Fact that EURO is not wavering for several runs now has to lead to higher confidence for landfall west coast of FL vs. Panhandle. Intensity is bigger question in my mind on a track like EURO is showing.

No change in TPC forecast cone with 11am advisory. They did drop peak intensity from 120 kts. to 115 kts. not really a notable change. They note changes in the day 3-5 track will "likely" require adjustments. Landfall location will make a big difference in landfall intensity. Further south stronger or central / eastern panhandle a weaker system at landfall. EURO / UKMET have been solid on taking Ian into west coast FL. We'll see how 12Z runs today evolve.

Was anticipating a much more organized looking system this morning. Surprised by lack of organized convection. First visible pictures of the day does show well established outflow in all but western sector. Shear is light and water is warm. Just need to get the LLC more vertically stacked with mid levels and then things should start to quickly improve. Should happen by evening but yesterday I thought that process would be completed by this morning so we'll see. Still interesting questions on landfall (GFS/EURO) and intensity at landfall. Some rapid model weakening going on late in the forecast period. Interesting overall situation to watch unfold. Landfall on the FL west coast would of course be the worst case in terms of intensity at landfall, especially if it landfalls from about Tampa southward. Panhandle to Big Bend likely weaker landfall solutions come into play. No real cut answers this morning. Still leaning 50-100 miles either side of Tampa for a landfall. Interesting to watch it unfold.

Notable shift to the left (west) on latest 18Z Tropical Models. Also intensity is boosted from 12Z as well. Based on this would fully expect 5pm TPC advisory track to be shifted NW from that of 11am even if only by a bit. EURO seems to be marking the eastward edge of track guidance as of now.

I might add I don't see anything on any global right now that makes the eastern trof deep enough to fully grab and slingshot Ian NNE or NE after landfall. Believe it will slow and meander somewhere over the southeast as huge high pressure builds north.