MANDA

Couldn't possibly be any worse than what we've just been through!

ISP and ALB

Some random EPS snowfall members: FWN (Sussex County NJ), MMU, EWR, CPK, ISP, ALB Fully understand this is not 10:1 event for anyone except maybe for ALB area so immediately cut the amounts on the others. There is little ensemble support for anything decent south of 80 and east of 287. Sharp contrast in EPS members from Sussex to MMU to EWR. Areas along and north of 80 and west of 287 have best CHANCE at 6"+. ALB members are what you want to see for area wide heavy snow. For most of this forum support for more than 2" is very weak. UNLESS there is some improvement in EPS tonight and/or 12Z tomorrow this event is likely over for coastal sections and immediate NYC burbs. Still a bit of time but there has been no noticeable uptick in EPS support during recent cycles.

Light snow ongoing. 32 degrees. 3” new snow. 16.6” on the season.

Not that we need to relive the horror that was this past meteorological winter but here is a good summary for NJ climate sites. https://www.njweather.org/content/normally-abnormal-february-2023-winter-20222023-recaps

That didn’t take long! About 8:00 this morning and 3:00 this afternoon.

NNJ snow totals off CoCoRaHS. Some 4" totals just north of my location and some 2.5" totals just south.

1.8” here. Pictures taken 7:45. Nickel and dimed my way to a 12” season. Season to date: 12.6”.

Just seeing subtle changes in EPS from 24 hours ago - slightly faster, slightly flatter and slightly faster moving system for next Sun/Mon. Changes from the 00Z runs are of course more notable. The 00Z OP EURO was an extreme outlier in my opinion. Not much to complain about 6-7 days out. In my opinion trends starting with 12Z runs tomorrow through the ensuing 3 days will be much more telling as to where this potential event is headed. I believe a notable Miller B type system is in the making and would expect guidance to trend that way over the next few days. PTYPE still very much up for grabs across this forum.

Me either and yes somewhat south would be preferred. Some of those members deliver.

12Z EPS snowfall members about the same as 24 hours ago with about 8 members of 51 (16%) offering up noteworthy (10"+) snow at KMMU. With the exception of 7 members all offer significant QPF of 1"+. Many members aoa 2". Confidence still rather high for impactful cyclone moving through the MA and parts of the NE. Posted Control and EPS M 500 mb departures for next Sunday morning. FOR REFERENCE ONLY the Control has sunk notably south and east with anomalies from 24 hours ago. Mean is weaker, faster and more ENE (Central KY to Northern VA)from 24 hours ago. Final verdict is DAYS away on how this evolves. Confidence moderate and growing that impactful storm affects this forum. PTYPE is highly uncertain. Block will do its job and force 2ndary development. That development and track will determine the final outcome. Potential looks to be centered next Sunday into Monday give or take. Per EPS one or two more threats COULD follow this system.

About 8 of 51 members from 12Z 3/3 EPS offer something noteworthy in terms of snowfall at KMMU. An increase from 24 hours ago. Control once again off the rails for central and eastern lakes into upstate NY and Central & Northern New England. Certainly solid ensemble support for a noteworthy storm over the east days 7-9. Overall the 51 members are offering QPF totals of 1 to 1.5" during the day 7-9 day period. A few notably higher. Will be interesting to see how this progresses from the day 7-8 period into the day 5-7 period. All options remain on the table at this point in my opinion.

Signal for strong storm is there and confidence increasing on that. Long ways to go on the details. Big snows for this forum far from a lock this far out. Not all blocking patterns deliver the snowy goods. Many options possible this far out. Personally my confidence is high on a noteworthy storm over the eastern third of the U.S. A KU or even meaningful snow (>6") threat is low at this point. We'll see what the EPS show shortly. Still interested but not excited. Will be interested to watch trends starting 12Z runs Monday.

I'm interested in how this evolves but a long way from excited.

Yes.

None of the 51 members (or the OP) of the EPS are really excited (as of yet anyway) despite the impressive looking 500 mb. anomalies. At least as of now none of them seem to be sniffing out anything noteworthy in terms of snow for THIS FORUM. Control is off the rails for Central and Northern New England and upstate NY but nothing so far is suggestive of a KU type event or any event of note for that matter for our forum. Control does have soaking 1-2" rain event here next weekend. Not at all saying pattern is not interesting and does not need to be watched but as of now needs to trend better to deliver the goods this far south.

Posting these for NO OTHER REASON than to watch trends over the next 7-10 days. Four of 51 members pop the cork on a 12"+ event centered around 3/11. Let's see where this heads in the coming days. Will be encouraging to see more members go up once inside 7 days especially on EURO and CMC. The trends from day 10-12 into days 5-7 have not been favorable this year.

Meteorological Winter Temperature rankings for Mt. Holly climate sites.

Links to PNS from Upton and Mt. Holly: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi

Final total here was 5". Nearly doubled my seasonal total. Up to 10.8" for the season.

Snowing moderately to heavy at times once again. Just measured and up to 2.2”.

Rt. 280 closed at Exit 8 due to 15 car pileup including a tractor trailer. Use caution out there! Stay safe. Lull here. S- - currently with temp up a bit to 27.9. Two small foxes frolicking in the snow in the yard.

Soon closing in on 1”.

Picked up .60" over the last 30 min. Total so far .70". Temperature 27.7 with mostly S- to some S at times.

There are several but here is one: COD NEXRAD: DIX